3/6 sick spot 230bb deep

Villain is a laggro regular (26/20/3.6 over 2.5k hands) but I haven't seen him get out of line in big pots. I've been abusing him a little at this table and another, playing very aggressively. He hasn't resisted until this hand...

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Holdem Ring game - Blinds: $3/$6 - 4 players - Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $1464.60
Hero: $1378.15
SB: $674
BB: $600

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with 8 7
UTG raises to $21, Hero calls, 2 folds.

Flop: J 5 6 ($51, 2 players)
UTG bets $40, Hero calls.

Turn: 9 ($131, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $111, UTG raises to $375, Hero...

Hero Calls.

Fold the river if the board pairs. Don't give up if a 4rth diamond hits.

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

i think you can fold here...check/raising this turn is very strong. he also sized the bet very much like he wants value.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Hero Calls.

Fold the river if the board pairs. Don't give up if a 4rth diamond hits.

what makes you so sure he doesn't have a flush?

Im pretty sure i call here from what you have said. It sounds like hes just sick of you pushing him around.

Pretty much what fnord said imo, i cant see folding this right now anyway.

villain played his hand horribly unless he has air.

i do what fnord does though.

Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi

Originally Posted by Fnord

Hero Calls.

Fold the river if the board pairs. Don't give up if a 4rth diamond hits.

what makes you so sure he doesn't have a flush?

We're not but we cant think like this.

Just because our opponent has a flush sometimes here, it makes up very little of his range. JJ, 66, 55, 99, AA, KK,QQ,AdJ, air all could very well play this similarly, and each of those hands are combined way more likely than a flush.

Our hand actually doesnt look as strong as it is, in fact if im opp i probably play air this way a lot. We can just rep so much more than zook (who most of the time raises flops with fd's i would think), and zook plays so many weak hands this way.

I totally agree with ISF here i just cant put it into words as well as he did lol.

I think this applies to a lot of other hands as well. Not directing this towards Hyper, but i think a lot of times people tend to weight villains range towards what they are scared of, and not really what his range actually is. I think this is part of the reason in a lot of instances bet/fold is the better line (not here, but in general). In this instance, i think you are seeing a flush here way less than you think especially given OP's reads on villain.

his line doesn't make that much sense for JJ, 66, 55, 99, AA, KK, QQ...

aren't those hands betting the turn again?

Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi

his line doesn't make that much sense for JJ, 66, 55, 99, AA, KK, QQ...

aren't those hands betting the turn again?

doesnt a flush?

touché

I would call and call a river bet on the river if the board doesn't pair (basically same thing Fnord said).

Just one question. What if a 4th diamond falls and villain open pushes? Then it would be a clear fold right?

zook - do you float a lot? he prob expects you to raise a flush draw but maybe you don't.

also, why would a set/2pr do that for value, at least without some history or something?

i would think his range is mostly air/diamond or big flushes.

Originally Posted by benny999

zook - do you float a lot?

Some. I wouldn't say a lot. I mainly raise flush draws, but occasionally call with non-nut draws to balance my other floats.

I'm a little surprised by the advice so far. Why am I calling a river bet if a 4th diamond hits? I definitely agree that he could have air, but isn't a semibluff a bigger part of his range?

Also, everyone's assuming that he's ready to play back at me (which could definitely be true), but another way to interpret my read is that he isn't willing to play a big pot without a big hand.

i think lags are more likely to play back than wait for a hand.

wait im sorry misread fnords advice. WTF this is an easy shove on the turn no doubt about it.

in position i call. also were he making these big 4x raises as a part of his agression before ?

and if ur decided to call big bet on river then push right here as teres like 20 scare cards to come in river.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

wait im sorry misread fnords advice. WTF this is an easy shove on the turn no doubt about it.

I'm not sure a shove gets called by anything worse than a set. Maybe i'm being too nitty though in thinking of what villain's calling range is this deep. I just think since we're not folding at this point, we might as well get as much value out of his potential Air compared with the amount of times we're paying off a flush anyway. I don't think at this point we need to protect against another diamond (if we get sucked on that sucks but oh well) and if he boats up on the river he wasn't folding the turn anyway so it doesn't matter. I think Fnord's advice is pretty good.

230bb deep i think pushing here is really bad.

I called. Still not sure what I think of that.

Part 2, a nice river comes, but he bets almost 90bb!

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with 8 7
UTG raises to $21, Hero calls, 2 folds.

Flop: J 5 6 ($51, 2 players)
UTG bets $40, Hero calls.

Turn: 9 ($131, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $111, UTG raises to $375, Hero calls.

River: Q ($881, 2 players)
UTG bets $525, Hero...

Originally Posted by zook

I called. Still not sure what I think of that.

Part 2, a nice river comes, but he bets almost 90bb!

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with 8 7
UTG raises to $21, Hero calls, 2 folds.

Flop: J 5 6 ($51, 2 players)
UTG bets $40, Hero calls.

Turn: 9 ($131, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $111, UTG raises to $375, Hero calls.

River: Q ($881, 2 players)
UTG bets $525, Hero...

How could you fold here. call

Originally Posted by Ravageur

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

wait im sorry misread fnords advice. WTF this is an easy shove on the turn no doubt about it.

I'm not sure a shove gets called by anything worse than a set. Maybe i'm being too nitty though in thinking of what villain's calling range is this deep. I just think since we're not folding at this point, we might as well get as much value out of his potential Air compared with the amount of times we're paying off a flush anyway. I don't think at this point we need to protect against another diamond (if we get sucked on that sucks but oh well) and if he boats up on the river he wasn't folding the turn anyway so it doesn't matter. I think Fnord's advice is pretty good.

I think its pretty close (wow i flip flop like Obama)

Look him up on the river. Ni Han.

if u called turn it was obv u will have to call bet on river, u cant fold here. not that great to continue with that straight so deep but woteva.

I'm not sure what to do here, this spot sucks balls.

His huge bet on the river sure looks like either a flush or a bluff. If you've been pushing him around a lot and he had a set, I don't see why he'd value bet it so strongly.

I wouldn't discount the flush as much as quickly as everyone else. Lets say I raised AKs in that spot utg and the asshole who's been pushing me around calls yet again. The asshole floats me once again but hot damn I finally hit a diamond! I'll check and let the asshole try and steal (again) and I'll smack a big checkraise in his face. Oh look he called... and the river brings a blank! How lovely I think I'll bet 525.

Originally Posted by zook

I called. Still not sure what I think of that.

Part 2, a nice river comes, but he bets almost 90bb!

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with 8 7
UTG raises to $21, Hero calls, 2 folds.

Flop: J 5 6 ($51, 2 players)
UTG bets $40, Hero calls.

Turn: 9 ($131, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $111, UTG raises to $375, Hero calls.

River: Q ($881, 2 players)
UTG bets $525, Hero...

this looks like a pretty easy call.
I can see why you dont like the turn call but did it occur he could have picked up lots of backdoor draws (straight/flush draws) and decided you werent going to see a river card for cheap and that he shouldnt be bluffing here anyway?
I think calling turn is the correct decision and that on anything but a non diamond river im all in if he pushes and probably only calling a river bet (weak but we could push for value perhaps)
Also, any chance you are pushing him off the same hand?
With those stats (his) i know id open up your hand UTG sometimes for mixture... but QTd looks like a probablility for his hand. Or have we not really seen him raise turn bets on air/draws as a laggro yet?

Smackin: Some of my thoughts exactly. I'm glad someone else doesn't think this is easy. (And I'm not being results-oriented, I timed down before I called the river.)

Miffed: Not sure what your first question is exactly, but it did occur to me that he might c/r the turn if he picked up some outs (backdoor flush or str8 draws) which is why I briefly considered 3-betting the turn. But then I decided I was pretty far ahead or drawing dead and I'm probably not getting any value from hands I'm ahead of by 3-betting. I think I'm comfortable with the turn call now.

As for my reads on him, I called him a laggro because of his stats and the fact that he steals from the CO and BTN a TON and c-bets a lot. He actually usually folds to my 3-bets, both in and out of position, and has folded to most resistance I've put up. So far in this short session I think I had raised his c-bet once, floated and bet a flush turn once and double-barreled him a couple of times, and he folded every time. So he's either waiting for a hand or finally playing back at me. He's a regular, so I assume he's capable of playing back, but I'd be a little surprised if he'd choose to do it 230bb deep.

Calling the turn just brings a real problem because we've defined our range so well and have made it real easy for our opponent to play on the river.

Does he not Vbet sets or overpairs on the river? Well it's not like he was going to fold them to a shove but now he may not value bet(although it wouldn't be the best play with the way he played it). You've just lost tons of equity against made hands.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Calling the turn just brings a real problem because we've defined our range so well and have made it real easy for our opponent to play on the river.

Does he not Vbet sets or overpairs on the river? Well it's not like he was going to fold them to a shove but now he may not value bet(although it wouldn't be the best play with the way he played it). You've just lost tons of equity against made hands.

Just curious, why do you think its easy for the opponent to play on the river? I am weak playing out of position on the river in big deep pots like this. If I was in his shoes with something like a set, I'd be hard-pressed to find the most +ev move here.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Calling the turn just brings a real problem because we've defined our range so well

I completely disagree. I could have a huge range here... anywhere from a strong made hand (like 87, set or 2pr) that feels wa/wb, to a nut or near-nut flush, to a TP that thinks opp is making a move, to a good flush draw that thinks implied odds are there (2.4:1 pot odds aren't terrible either).

i still don't really understand why most people here are so willing to call down. just because zook's been bullying villain here doesn't mean he's playing back. he could have a hand, and from how he sized his bets, it looks like he has a flush.

unless he is incredibly tricky, most bluffs who CR more and bet more on the river.

Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi

i still don't really understand why most people here are so willing to call down. just because zook's been bullying villain here doesn't mean he's playing back. he could have a hand, and from how he sized his bets, it looks like he has a flush.

unless he is incredibly tricky, most bluffs who CR more and bet more on the river.

he could have a set here as much as a flush and because hes playing back for some reason he has either a flush or a set and with the river we cant noit call.
Also, as said above if we raise his turn c/r we give away our range to something destroying a set/overpair.
So i call turn and force myself to call anyriver even this deep.
I think he has a flush or set, very rarelt an overpair or the same hand and i say that because hes pissed that we are forcing him to play. But we havent done much to him so far right....
playing it this way and calling river is def right IMO.

i dont think this spot sucks balls i think ur way ahead a lot

id call turn as a lot of villains range is bluffs and i think hes going to follow thru often enough for call>raise for protection

on river i think its muuuch closer to raise than to fold but id call.

ISF- i think we should call with almost our whole range in this spot so it doesnt define our hand whatsoever

Originally Posted by sauce123

ISF- i think we should call with almost our whole range in this spot so it doesnt define our hand whatsoever

What kind of range would you be willing call with and what kind of range do you put the opponent on?

Originally Posted by SmackinYaUp

Originally Posted by sauce123

ISF- i think we should call with almost our whole range in this spot so it doesnt define our hand whatsoever

What kind of range would you be willing call with and what kind of range do you put the opponent on?

i think the weakest hand we can conceivably call with is AdJx

obv any set, 56+, any flush. I mean even is he is tilting i just dont think we can call c/r + bet with worse.

i would naturally assume hes relatively weak here- with AdKx and a big PP with a diamond being his two most likely hands as well as some big flushes occasionally. i really dont like villain's line: with 100 BB stacks this line is veeeeerry often a semibluff in today's game. with stacks this big it has a lot more merit but i would still tilt it towards a semibluff because it puts him in a shitty spot with any other strongish made hand. also at least 10% bluffs

Originally Posted by crazycrazy

if u called turn it was obv u will have to call bet on river, u cant fold here.

Untrue.

Interesting hand, fun absorbing the various opinions. Only thing I can input is agreeing with Hyper that he may not necessarily be playing back just cause we've been giving him some shit.

I call the river, but holding my breath. I think he has a hand, it's just whether or not he hit his flush which is really hard to determine. He's definitely got a hand in this spot by the river, but doesn't have to on the turn.

I don't see why he c/r's with a flush though, that would be an odd way to play it... that's a big reason I call, the line reminds me more of a set or draw (e.g. Kd10x or KdQx) than a flush. I call river, as I can't constantly play in fear of a flush in HU raised pots. It could be a higher straight, which would be the most infuriating ;p

does anyone think c/r the turn then bet the river is a good line for value from UTG with an overpair? with J9? 555?

Originally Posted by benny999

does anyone think c/r the turn then bet the river is a good line for value from UTG with an overpair? with J9? 555?

i rly think the best line for villain here is bet/bet/bet with all of these hands

Zook, if you think he's got it, fold. Otherwise Call, Call is probably the line unless you think he's going to give up or tip his hand on the river. I think only you can really answer these questions given your first hand information. Even someone in the same player pool as you has less information to work with here.

Originally Posted by sauce123

Originally Posted by benny999

does anyone think c/r the turn then bet the river is a good line for value from UTG with an overpair? with J9? 555?

i rly think the best line for villain here is bet/bet/bet with all of these hands

yeah but if hes going to mix it up and catch us off guard then this is the line with a set right?

Originally Posted by Fnord

Zook, if you think he's got it, fold.

zook, if you had doubts whether he has the flush or not on the turn, i think this river is a pretty clear indicator he does have the flush.

do you have any river aggression numbers? showdown hands?

Whatever the case is, I really don't see a decent reg overplaying a single pair this bad..unless he was trying to bluff with it for some reason.

If he knows you're not a fish, he's not gonna vbet a single pair that hard. In fact, if he thinks you're a fish, every possible draw hit. He knows 78 could be out there.

With your recent history of abusing him, he is either bluffing or he has a flush. I really doubt he'd put 200bbs into the pot vs a floating abuser when every draw hit. Most likely he's either bluffing or has the flush.

a set doesnt make sense to me, since i think most good regs use similar logic to sauce...i mean does he expect zook to call down with AJ?

im not saying it's impossible, but it's a very small part of his range imo.

To be honest I sometimes play my flushes this way. Raise pre-flop get called, c/bet gets called, voila I hit my flush on the turn. If I believe that my opponent got a piece of the turn card I go for a check/raise and value bet the river. I know its a donkish line but it confuses the hell out of my regular opponents. However, I also play the same way with air to mix it up.

Here, if you think opponent can be tricky I could make an argument for folding but given that I have a straight and am so far ahead his likely holdings I might call and pray.

Also given that Zook as quite a history with the opponent and he has not gotten out of line in big pots, his line suggests he is not afraid of the flush. The more I think about it the more I tend towards folding (but would then break my head about "what could he have had?"

i think his river bet fits set/bluff/str8/flush but pretty much excludes two pair and overpairs

without history this would be a lot closer

Thanks for all the discussion everyone. Fnord, I agree with you that I *should* know best whether calling is correct here, but I was conflicted at the time and then results came and biased my thinking. I never post things looking for a definitive answer, just looking for ideas that will improve my thought process the next time.

Results: I called, villain showed Kh Td for the rivered straight.

god, I had such a sick feeling he had k10 there with 1d.

Originally Posted by sauce123

Originally Posted by benny999

does anyone think c/r the turn then bet the river is a good line for value from UTG with an overpair? with J9? 555?

i rly think the best line for villain here is bet/bet/bet with all of these hands

Yeah but an overpair is a horrible check raise here, 77 is just mildly bad.

I think you played it correctly and i would have played it the same, just an unlucky river.

Originally Posted by zook

Results: I called, villain showed Kh Td for the rivered straight.

Wow that almost made me throw up. I am tilted for you...........grosssssss

lol... well u made nice turn call then...

Originally Posted by zook

Thanks for all the discussion everyone. Fnord, I agree with you that I *should* know best whether calling is correct here, but I was conflicted at the time and then results came and biased my thinking. I never post things looking for a definitive answer, just looking for ideas that will improve my thought process the next time.

Results: I called, villain showed Kh Td for the rivered straight.

sick

gross... but he was bluffing amiright???

Now that we've seen the results, who likes villain's play? I think I do but I'm not sure.

with his image he spewed all over it

Originally Posted by mcatdog

Now that we've seen the results, who likes villain's play? I think I do but I'm not sure.

i do, his line made perfect sense to me... f around with someone and then pretend to semibluf turn with big raise while he already have the nuts or something... i liked his line. wonder what he do on river if he miss his great gutshot, maybe he push. nice semibluff if he had FD along with gutshot also, he was a little too weak with just gutshot.

I wonder if he would have continued had he whiffed. The river bet was a major factor in my reasoning but I feared the wrong hand. KT came out of left field and clobbered me in the back of the head. Had he continued the bluff with nothing and you called, that would have been a helluva read, the results just weren't with you that time. I wish you better luck next time.

Originally Posted by SmackinYaUp

I wonder if he would have continued had he whiffed. The river bet was a major factor in my reasoning but I feared the wrong hand. KT came out of left field and clobbered me in the back of the head. Had he continued the bluff with nothing and you called, that would have been a helluva read, the results just weren't with you that time. I wish you better luck next time.

he has major fe on the river and he knows it so he can push.
Looking at it now, it makes sense why he didnt push the gutshot on the river. but we are never going to pick up on that...

I think his play is bad versus someone who is a really good player. Like the best reg at 600nl or better. I think it's good otherwise.

I think his turn play is +ev. Floating a drawy flop like this 230bb deep really narrows my range. With a strong flush draw, set or 2pair, I'd always raise the flop and try to get more money in. He took advantage and made a good turn c/r semibluff, which should fold the majority of my range (any J without a diamond kicker, TT/88/77, air).

The river is tricky though. Once I flat call his turn c/r, he has to put me on a made hand like 87 or 99 or KdJx/QdJx. If the river blanks I think he has to give up or bluff AI, which takes some big balls. But I'm going to have a really hard time calling an AI on a blank river without a high flush, and it's almost impossible for me to show up with that here. A diamond river makes it tough for him to get value b/c I'm only calling or betting better hands. Really the only river card he can value-bet is the one that hit.

Originally Posted by zook

I think his turn play is +ev. Floating a drawy flop like this 230bb deep really narrows my range. With a strong flush draw, set or 2pair, I'd always raise the flop and try to get more money in. He took advantage and made a good turn c/r semibluff, which should fold the majority of my range (any J without a diamond kicker, TT/88/77, air).

The river is tricky though. Once I flat call his turn c/r, he has to put me on a made hand like 87 or 99 or KdJx/QdJx. If the river blanks I think he has to give up or bluff AI, which takes some big balls. But I'm going to have a really hard time calling an AI on a blank river without a high flush, and it's almost impossible for me to show up with that here. A diamond river makes it tough for him to get value b/c I'm only calling or betting better hands. Really the only river card he can value-bet is the one that hit.

he insta pushes the river if he bricks. If he doesnt shove the whole lot in you can call with a whole lot of your range, straghts sets small flushes but if he pushes this deep id find it difficult to felt a set versus a laggro, maybe even the small flush/straight.

Originally Posted by sauce123

gross... but he was bluffing amiright???

SEMI BLUFFING

sick hand, good thread zook

Originally Posted by gabe

Originally Posted by sauce123

gross... but he was bluffing amiright???

SEMI BLUFFING

sick hand, good thread zook

.....and gabe chimes in lol