2/4 deep: reverse clairvoyance

Villain is 24/20/3.4 laggy reg with 11% 3bet over significant sample. I'm expecting him to assume that I would not flat AA/KK pre this deep.


SB ($849)
BB ($1722)
UTG ($142)
MP ($445.20)
Hero (CO) ($829.30)
Button ($983.30)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, Q
2 folds, Hero bets $14, 1 fold, SB raises to $46, 1 fold, Hero calls $32

Flop: ($96) 7, 7, 7 (2 players)
SB bets $56, Hero calls $56

Turn: ($208) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $168, Hero calls $168

River: ($544) 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $120 ($439 behind).

well considering these three factors:

1) i'm a scared money 100nl lag reg

2) i check fold like everything here if i'm villain

3) i'm drunk as fuck right now

this just seems like PURE genius to me.

I don't really understand how your turn call can ever be profitable? He still has 99+/AK in his range and if he's bluffing the turn with any high frequency (which I think he is) then I'd expect him to bluff the river too since it's going to take 3 streets to take you off 88.

I think he has a ridiculous amount of air in his range and I don't think he is going to bluff the river very likely at all not expecting me to fold the top of my range in a clairvoyance game. Also I have blockers.

If you had hands like 55-JJ (excluding 99), would you really be betting this river?

I feel like this is a board/spot vs his polarized range that you generally have very little value betting range on this river. He can also easily have some pair here that he just decided to pot control, and will now c/c.

he appears to not have a check/call range vs any reasonably sized bet. why tempt him to reevaluate?

P4's - if you DO bet TT like this or something on the river. Are you calling a shove after this sizing?

Originally Posted by griffey24

P4's - if you DO bet TT like this or something on the river. Are you calling a shove after this sizing?

Yes of course I am, makes no sense to b/f the nuts.

Originally Posted by nutsinho

he appears to not have a check/call range vs any reasonably sized bet. why tempt him to reevaluate?

I guess I never thought that a bigger bet makes a fold more likely against experienced players. I just try to make my bets as credible as possible. With TT/JJ I would want to tempt him so that's my bet with this hand as well.

I actually think something like $35 is optimal with TT/JJ so $120 is already clearly exploitative territory.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

I actually think something like $35 is optimal with TT/JJ so $120 is already clearly exploitative territory.

$35 is optimal to induce?? It can't be optimal as a value bet b/c it is too little value for the risk, right?

Yeah just shove. If he called the shove it would be insane, its amazing you got to this spot with a bluff in the first place.

He looks to be checking to induce a bluff; I would call your tiny bet with AK, AQ without hesitation here.

Originally Posted by tstrout

He looks to be checking to induce a bluff; I would call your tiny bet with AK, AQ without hesitation here.

well youre a fucken sicko

I really hate double floating when there's pot behind