|
Hand 1, i think its clearly the spot to make a pretty big bet, at least 3/4 the pot, as there are definitely worse hands in his range that are calling when the rivers a total blank and a ton of your perceived range is a hand with outs that peeled the turn.
Also i'd insta call a push for mostly the same reason, and sadly i'd also call pretty much because of the awesome strength of my cards in a button/sb battle vs an aggro tag. I mean i know that we're supposed to think of each hand like a snowflake and all that but we do have a backdoored top two pair on a bricked river after all.
Hand 2 is a lot tougher imo. I know its hard for you to look so far ahead and plan on how to respond to a river c/r on a blank when u decided whether to bet the turn. That said, I think from a practicality standpoint him making the same raise when u bet the turn would definitely be an easier fold than him c/ring the river after the turn goes check check.
Im not sure that i bet the turn, just laying that out, it would definitely avoid shitty spots. I think the fact that you just took this line and didn't showdown doesn't have a whole lot of relevance here just because of the dramatic difference in the board texture and preflop positioning.
Does he have a read on your pf reraise range in this spot? A lot of ppl have v weird ranges here, like some tags only 3b AK QQ+ here, some don't 3bet at all.
Anyway, I'm not really offering anything here, its a super tough spot and I'm not sure what I'd do. I think I would fold, prolly cos:
-I don't think he expects me to fold a lot here. Like, if he has a medium strength hand and is turning it into a bluff, I think thats gonna be a tall order to get many better hands to fold.
-So ergo I'm putting him on kinda a polar range as opposed to the merged one u put him on.
-So ergo, since he c/c the flop, this is gonna weight his hand range toward the part that has you beat. His flop c/c range is gonna be sets, Jx, QQ, TT, 99, mayyyyybe 77- but i think he's prob smart enough that he knows he can't come out ahead with underpairs and these stacks (assuming he respects your game at all), and the oesd (i doubt he's c/r a str8 draw with these stacks). So on the river the part of that range you beat, but may c/r bluff is the oesd which is now a pair, and 99. So, im not calling hoping to see two hands.
|