1/2: 3rd nuts facing 3rd bet

Villain is 15/5/1.7 (af). Seems bad.


UTG: $223.75
CO: $200.00
Hero (BTN): $423.15
SB: $265.80
BB: $266.00

SB posts SB $1.00, BB posts BB $2.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero has 5 J
fold, fold, Hero raises to $5.00, SB calls $4.00, fold

Flop: ($12.00, 2 players) K A 3
SB bets $8.00, Hero raises to $27.60, SB calls $19.60

Turn: ($67.20, 2 players) T
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($67.20, 2 players) 4
SB bets $33.00, Hero raises to $76.00, SB raises to $144.00, Hero?

One orbit earlier same villain:

CO: $223.75
BTN: $200.00
Hero (SB): $491.95
BB: $200.00
UTG: $266.00

Hero posts SB $1.00, BB posts BB $2.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero has A K
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $7.00, BB calls $5.00

Flop: ($14.00, 2 players) A 3 9
Hero bets $9.80, BB calls $9.80

Turn: ($33.60, 2 players) 8
Hero bets $23.50, BB raises to $52.00, Hero calls $28.50

River: ($137.60, 2 players) T
Hero checks, BB bets $99.00, fold
BB wins $134.60

We're getting a good price and he can potentially have worse value hands (weaker flushes) along with some badly played sets + read that he's not great.

I'd probably call.

Hand 1) After flop action he probably has no air and your hand looks like flush or some crazy bluff, so he can easily bluffcatch you. And I don't think he is raising worse for value, but odds are pretty sick

Hand 2) Why are you calling turn and then folding blank river??

Those hands would tilt me pretty bad. It's pretty obvious he has the nuts in both hands.

1) Don't like the flop raise vs him.
2) Fine although expert play is to fold turn

Originally Posted by Mr. Diamond

Hand 1) After flop action he probably has no air and your hand looks like flush or some crazy bluff, so he can easily bluffcatch you. And I don't think he is raising worse for value, but odds are pretty sick

Hand 2) Why are you calling turn and then folding blank river??

Though I prefer a fold in hand two due to his stats/tiny range he is repping.

I agree with both of these. Your line either looks like a flush or some Ax that you decided to turn into a bluff though I don't really know what Ax you would play like this. I can't see him 3bet bluffing here ever especially given the read and seeing as how your line looks pretty face up.

@Alexos's point I think there is definitely a lot of merit to flatting. I would think it'd keep your perceived range much wider (ie. keeping a lot of Ax in it which then allows you to control the size of the pot when you do have Ax and also lets you bluff a lot of turns when you hold FDs and he checks to you.)

Just seems like he'd get it in with any Kcxc hand on the flop so really we're only losing to the Q high flush but it definitely seems like that's pretty likely. Seems like a fold, and the AK is a fold on the turn optimally.

Originally Posted by Mr. Diamond

Hand 2) Why are you calling turn and then folding blank river??

He just lost the hand exactly previous to this one to a river suckout because he didn't bet the turn with his top pair. That and the fact that he hadn't won a single showdown over 200 hands made me hold on to my hand and re-eval river.

Originally Posted by Ravageur

Just seems like he'd get it in with any Kcxc hand on the flop so really we're only losing to the Q high flush but it definitely seems like that's pretty likely. Seems like a fold, and the AK is a fold on the turn optimally.

So we fold because he has QcTc?

Originally Posted by pocketfours

So we fold because he has QcTc?

I would expect to see KQcc or KTcc way more often than that.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

He just lost the hand exactly previous to this one to a river suckout because he didn't bet the turn with his top pair. That and the fact that he hadn't won a single showdown over 200 hands made me hold on to my hand and re-eval river.

Ok, I'm just really careful, when some total nit makes aggro play postflop. I probably never seen someone like this clowning postflop. When these guys overplays a hand, its usually in "passive way", not in "aggresive way"

I'd call on hand 1 fold to turn raise hand 2

lol, is he EVER looking at the board in hand 1 and deciding to reraise with worse? i mean i call for this price but he must surely have it every time, he's not even doing this with the Q hi flush imo.

Originally Posted by pantherhound

lol, is he EVER looking at the board in hand 1 and deciding to reraise with worse? i mean i call for this price but he must surely have it every time, he's not even doing this with the Q hi flush imo.

If that's what you think, then why on earth would you call?

I ve never EVER seen people who are commenting about plays say they would call that raise on the turn. This time top pair top kicker, last time it was top two. Various other hands that I cant remember. Although I would always fold too, maybe people are not bluff raising the turn enough?!?!

i dont understand the flop raise p4s? if you think he's bluffing call/call/shove. if you think he's leading weak made hands/draws, then raise/bet/shove. your line only maximizes against a villain who goes bet/bet/shove with a polarized range but who's range contains lots of terrible hands and who folds those terrible hands to a flop raise but will bet and bluff3bet jam the turn

Originally Posted by sauce123

i dont understand the flop raise p4s? if you think he's bluffing call/call/shove. if you think he's leading weak made hands/draws, then raise/bet/shove. your line only maximizes against a villain who goes bet/bet/shove with a polarized range but who's range contains lots of terrible hands and who folds those terrible hands to a flop raise but will bet and bluff3bet jam the turn

In my experience these weak players like to b/f a lot of mid strength hands, but the times they do call the raise it's usually very hard to get them off anything but a missed draw. After the ten on the turn he always has at least a pair or his hand is worse hand than mine.

what hands exactly p4s? ...A6? ... K8hh? ... 99?

Originally Posted by sauce123

what hands exactly p4s? ...A6? ... K8hh? ... 99?

I usually play aggressively in these spots so I'm not very familiar with their b/f ranges. All I can say is that their holdings surprise me pretty often if and when we do get to showdown.

At least they almost always check their huge hands to the pfr on a texture like this, so I'm not worried about having to face a 3bet very often at all.

if you think their range is capped or usually capped then the play is to either raise flop/bet turn/sometimes bluff river or to call flop. if you decide to raise the flop, the turn bet is obviously best with your hand.

My plan was of course to barrel most turns, but I think this is one of the very best cards to check back on. There's some possibility of having to face a c/r and minimal fold equity. Why not take this absolutely free card with position, good implied odds and just love life because it's good?

Checking back gives him a chance to win the pot with the worst hand on the river, but I'm not really worried about that possibility considering his preflop tightness and the fact that I'm holding J high.

I have to say it's a little absurd to discuss optimal strategy against a complete idiot with one of the best poker minds of our time. C'est la vie.

what im trying to explain p4s is that either you want him to fold Ax/Kx/clubs by the end with some frequency or you dont. if you want him to fold top pair just go ahead and raise/barrel/barrel since his range is for the most part non nutted. other times just be content to call/call/fold or checkback when you miss
an alternative bluffline is call flop/raise turn jam river and gets the same number of bets in
another alternative bluffline is call/call/jam but that makes less sense
btw, i think the best line is raise/barrel off since it forces his whole range to always put in 4bets to showdown and very little of that range is nutted enough to want to do that and you rep all combos of the nuts

a lot of times when your turn FE is low, your river FE will still be high if you use good sizing. this is v good for you because he is donating more money before folding his hand. your flop/turn line doesnt strike me as terrible but it is something I would v rarely do. River- raising his lead after the flop/turn action doesn't make a whole lot of sense from a theory/handreading perspective and certainly neither does calling a 3bet but if you say he's a total drooler then fine. i would not fold to a small 3bet vs anyone i thought this hand was good enough to raise river w/