I think if you're gonna have a 3-bet range vs MP you should go a little bit larger. You're repping a pretty strong range here so implied odds are actually a factor. Also, his range is likely to be very strong anyway so I doubt you'll get much fold equity with a bluff for 4.50.


I think on the turn you kind of free-roll yourself vs his check, especially if you intend to call a river shove. For example, if he holds KQ on the turn, your check is massively bad because he's unlikely to bluff rivers he misses or to even pay off a big bet if he improves to top pair. So you just relinquish 10% of the pot + 10% of your stack when he has KQ.


That said, you may just be in such bad shape vs his range that the turn is a check, with the river either being a fold or a crying call.


It should be noted that his flop check raise is VERY weird. Not even KK is strong enough to c/r there legitimately, as it will be a clear dog to your range that bet calls and calls a turn shove. Some players in his position will have 99 every single time.






I guess I'd bet like 13 on the turn for protection and value. I'd probably fold the river for a few simple reasons having to do with you having a one pair hand and he reasonably representing a hand stronger than one pair and having relatively few bluffs when his primary flop bluffing hand (KQ) gets there.