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$25 5-max QQ 200+BB & OOP
No strong reads on Villian (other than a willingness to bet big), but looking back over HH:
Villian got stack by pushing in an unraised pot with top 2 (and called by an idiot with bottom 2) &
Hero got stack by flopping a set (TT) against same idiot who raised preflop with 77 (didn't flop a set) & an overpair v. A high. (yeah, it was a great table)
Within the last few hands, hero folded a 100bb pot. (Not to villian)
Table "Eleu (5 max)" (real money) -- Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: Villian ($54.14 in chips)
Seat 2: Hero ($56.68 in chips)
Seat 3: Saucy152 ($7.23 in chips)
Seat 4: KOSAL ($49.11 in chips)
Seat 5: bdk313 ($13.65 in chips)
Hero : Post Small Blind ($0.10)
Saucy152: Post Big Blind ($0.25)
Dealt to Hero [ Qs ]
Dealt to Hero [ Qd ]
KOSAL : Call ($0.25)
bdk313 : Fold
Villian : Raise ($0.70)
Hero : Raise ($2)
Saucy152: Fold
KOSAL : Fold
Villian : Call ($1.40)
My thoughts: There haven't been a lot of raises/reraises on this table (in spite of all the big pots). Villian would 3-bet / push with AA/KK. Figure Villian may have mid pocket pair / AT+.
*** FLOP *** : [ 5h 7h 4d ]
Hero : Bet ($3)
Villian : Raise ($7)
Hero : Call ($4)
I try and vary how often (and how much) I bet on the flop when I'm the preflop raiser. There is absolutely no way I give Villian credit for being ahead right now (i.e. having a set). I think Villian thinks I missed the flop and wants me to fold. I don't reraise as I'm not used to deep stack poker and didn't want to get carried away.
*** TURN *** : [ 5h 7h 4d ] [ Jd ]
Hero : Check
Villian : Bet ($12)
Hero : Call ($12)
Well, I checked this for pot control. The only hands Villian could have that would justify this bet are JJ / AJ and possibly a semi-bluff (flush draw), otherwise it's a pure bluff. Still, with the exception of JJ, every hand I was ahead of initially I would still be ahead of. Villian is likely thinking (as I am right now) that if I had AA/KK I would have led here, and I think it's about 75% likely I would have.
*** RIVER *** : [ 5h 7h 4d Jd ] [ 6s ]
Hero : Bet ($15)
Villian : Raise ($33.04)
Hero : Call ($18.04)
This was indended as a blocking bet. My thoughts were, the only hands that hit were 33/88 and he'd have to be a lunatic to have that betting pattern with either hand. The type of line he ran (betting/raising on flop, turn, and river) is either a monster or a full bore bluff. The only monster he could have is a set, and he'd have to have hit it on the flop. (Possibly JJ, but JJ wouldn't reraise the flop).
What's interesting, is that if I was in position I think it winds up being a $20 pot instead of a $100 pot.
Thoughts?
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