Paying off when the Price is just too good?
$1-2 NL, I'm sitting on about $350, Villain has about $300
Villain (mostly ABC old guy) opens UTG at a 9-handed table. 2 callers and I call from the BB with 33. Flop is KK3. I check, Villain leads for about 1/2 pot, folds back to me. I decide to flat (reason being: if he has AA or a big King, I'll get more/all later but if he has a middle pair or air, I'm losing him with any raise.)
Turn is a blank baby. For the reasons mentioned above, I check planning a CR and stacking him if he has AA or AK, but he doesn't comply and checks behind. I mostly take the kings out of his range and now have him on mid-pairs and big aces looking for a cheap showdown.
River is a Q. I lead for value and he quickly min-raises me. I'm getting almost 5:1 on the call, but he's not doing that with much that I can beat. AA mostly calls, JJ and below may call, but won't raise. I would have heard from a King on the turn, so even though I'm 90%+ convinced he has QQ, I can't find a fold for that price. I grimace and toss in the call.
As it played out (assuming I'm missing a part of his range) is nearly 5:1 enough to call there? 2nd question: should I have raised/led on the flop/turn? Replaying it in my head later, free cards only kill me, and don't leave much room for him to improve to 2nd best, but I can get him to bluff a lot on the turn.