Open bet sizing

TBH, I have been advised to open bet 3 times the BB with good starting hands but I don't know if there is a math behind it. I sometimes make it 2.5xBB when I want to steal. I occasionally make it 4xBB with medium hands in order to intimidate the short stacks that are left to act, if I have a nice stack. I also saw Katja Thater always open bet 4xBB.

What factors do you take into account when you decide the size of an open bet?

a) math (giving the wrong pot odds to opponent)
b) villian (loose, tight, aggressive, passive combinations)
c) villian's stack size (short stacked, midstacked, chip leader)
d) your stack size
e) blind size
f) pot size ( that is, blinds and antes total)
g) strength of your hand
h) ICM ( push or fold, or something else)
i) your range
j) villian's range
k) position
l) number of limpers

PS: Please, put these factors ( add a "m" if you want ) in the order of importance

nice! no time but I'll be back, good start

h (when it really matters, this has to be first)
l
d
e
f
k
c
b
g
i
j
a (not sure what this one means, tbh)

There really is no best way. Things I take into consideration when making a bet.

1) How likely is someone going to call?
1a) Do I want them to call?
1b) Do I want them to fold?
2) Can I just shove profitably with the effective stacks?
2a) If my shove is called, how likely will my hand fair well against his calling range?
3) What is my stack size in relation to the blinds
4) Where is the bubble?
5) How will I play my hand post flop if I miss?

These are in no order

a) math (giving the wrong pot odds to opponent)
b) villian (loose, tight, aggressive, passive combinations)
c) villian's stack size (short stacked, midstacked, chip leader)
d) your stack size
e) blind size
f) pot size ( that is, blinds and antes total)
g) strength of your hand
h) ICM ( push or fold, or something else)
i) your range
j) villian's range
k) position
l) number of limpers

d) the less BBs you have, the more value there will be in stealing. Your raising range will shift and often be more based on the action and your position vs your cards. Has to be the most important.

g) I will usually only change my raise size if I'm in a super donkament like the sunday hundo OR I have not yet raised at the current level (this would be early, I would never change once antes kick in), and I have a big pair. Anything else seems really transparent or too complicated.

k) I like the idea of raising less in EP (you are repping a big hand already and want to maybe buy the button and range is strong) and more in LP (you are IP and want to play larger pots and range is weak) but I don't think people are aware enough it to be effective.

l) once there are antes I raise 2.5ish, but make it 4 with a limper. They'll call anyway.

h) this is very important but we don't want this to be a push fold thread

b) how would you use this to change your bet size? I would think it would more change what hands you are raising to begin with.

c) you would use this SB vs BB or in a spot where say you had a bunch of people with 10x BB behind but I would assume this thread is more to discuss when everyone is deeper.

e) not sure why it matters except as a function of stack size

f) see e

a) means very little. You're never going to be pricing out the BB without making some ridiculous raise. His call may be 'correct' in term of pot odds vs your hand or range hot and cold but that ignores position, initiative and skill level. If people want to call with 23s you sure don't want them to stop.

in Gus Hansen's book (where he runs through every hand he played in a tourney) he makes lots of calls pre because he's getting a good price. Then later in the book he talks about how much better off he would have been folding some of those hands. And he won the tourney.

i & j) clarify? I don't know if you mean our actual range or perceived range but either way I don't think it changes my bet size thinking.



In the FT tournament book there are three chapters more or less on pre flop NLHE. One is written by Ferguson. He suggests less in EP, more in LP as I described above. Andy bloch opts for a 3x standard. Both never open limp. Ted forrest writes a chapter where he suggest limping, min raising, and varying raise sizes based on your hand and lots of other stuff.

If all poker answers are it depends, this one really depends. I think the key is just that you know why you're doing what you are doing, and you question it frequently.

The closest to 'wrong' I think you can get is raising more than XX bb later on when the table has clearly established you can raise less on a steal.

Originally Posted by revolvingiris

1) How likely is someone going to call?
1a) Do I want them to call?
1b) Do I want them to fold?
2) Can I just shove profitably with the effective stacks?
2a) If my shove is called, how likely will my hand fair well against his calling range?
3) What is my stack size in relation to the blinds
4) Where is the bubble?
5) How will I play my hand post flop if I miss?

1) What is your bet size in each case? Why?
3) How does it (M) affect your bet size if you are not short stacked?
5) Can you explain this a little bit?

Originally Posted by drmcboy

b) how would you use this to change your bet size? I would think it would more change what hands you are raising to begin with.

I remember playing 4 handed game with 3 places paid. The guy on my left was playing sick tight and folding to 3x bets when I had good hands. He laso folded to every c-bet. So, I decided to decrease my bet size and made it around 2.5x but nothing changed, Then, I got QQ and decided the make it 2.1x. Surprisingly he called! Board came KJKxy, he fired twice and showed down AJ.

Originally Posted by drmcboy

c) you would use this SB vs BB or in a spot where say you had a bunch of people with 10x BB behind but I would assume this thread is more to discuss when everyone is deeper.

I guess our bet size also adjusts the villian's 3-betting range. Lets say if we raise like 2x to 2.5, the villian is more likely to make a 3 bet bluff than the case we open 3x or 4x. It may eben force him to push or fold.



e) yeah, just wrote it down in case it means something.


f)Actually I meant blinds+antes vs blinds only by this. Does your open bet size differ if there are no antes?

Originally Posted by drmcboy

a) means very little. You're never going to be pricing out the BB without making some ridiculous raise. His call may be 'correct' in term of pot odds vs your hand or range hot and cold but that ignores position, initiative and skill level. If people want to call with 23s you sure don't want them to stop.

Idk but I think the open bet size can be adjusted by pot odds according to how our hand is likely to improve on the flop only, not according to the probability to win at showdown. We can then reevaluate our chances on the flop accordıng to villian's range.

Originally Posted by drmcboy

i & j) clarify? I don't know if you mean our actual range or perceived range but either way I don't think it changes my bet size thinking.

Yes, I guess this is similar to b.

Idk but I think the open bet size can be adjusted by pot odds according to how our hand is likely to improve on the flop only

this doesn't make sense, restate/expand? How are you adjusting? What do you consider improving?

Originally Posted by drmcboy

Idk but I think the open bet size can be adjusted by pot odds according to how our hand is likely to improve on the flop only

this doesn't make sense, restate/expand? How are you adjusting? What do you consider improving?

let's say if the villian's range icludes some middle sc's, what is his chance to improve on the flop? What is the probabilty that our AKo is still the best hand against his 89s on the flop? can we adjust our open bet sizing according to the chances to improve on the flop?

Would you bet more or less if you were more likely to improve? Why?

I don't think the flop vs all 5 cards changes the equity much. It sounds to me like basically you're saying you will raise more with better hands. That's probably good at loose tables where no one is paying attention but it has some huge problems (you get folds when you want calls and vice versa) vs a mix of players or non stupid people.

I see doc. Raising less or more is like a two-sided sword. I wouldn't want villians to identify me like "this guy raises 5x with top 5%, 3x with top 10..etc" or something like that.

Right.

I size my raise based on the average chip stack compared to the blinds/antes.

If the blinds are not 'worth' stealing, I'm raising for value and hoping my opponents call. The goal is to build a pot with a playable hand - mostly pairs, BWs and scs. Generally I would want to be IP. This usually last until the ave stack has 30 BBs or less although of course it can vary by toureny/table. I will usually go with 3x here, although if stacks are very deep I might go to 4x.

Once we get below that but still not in push fold mode, I'll still raise most of those hands (low pairs would be the first to go) but I'll add in more Ax & Kx hands along with most connectors and suited stuff like 95 when I'm in position to steal. Now I'll be raising 2.5x ish because I want my steals to be as cheap as possible, and it's even more important for me to get action with big hands. Raising more (probably) gives our steals a better chance to work, but at an increased price that I have not found to be worth it. And again there even if 4x shows a profit when stealing, how much profit do you lose when you get folds with AA?

Also in my experience if people will call 2.5 wide they will also call 3x and 4x wide. My adjustment is not to increase my raise size, it's to reduce steals. If you're going to get called when you have big hands regardless, stealing is a lot less important. Also if you're getting called a lot, hands like KT-KQ and A8-T go up in value since your opponents are almost certainly calling with some hands that you dominate. This too makes it less necessary to 'steal' since against tighter opps you feel pretty unhappy with these hands whatever you flop.

Doc I oftentimes like to raise more in EP simply because it's harder to extract value postflop OOP.

Pretty much all hands are less profitable in EP (rare exceptions may be trapping with AA/KK when blinds are high) so I'm not often looking to play multiway pots there....comments?

I'd just raise less, I play pretty tight in EP - AJ, KQs, some pairs - with some middle-BW scs in for balance. I don't think raising 4x gets a bunch more folds and you just end up playing a bigger pot OOP.