Sexy play or dangerous bluff? 50 NL

Villan is thegerman339, a 2p2er who is a TAGGY 17/10/5 with an flop AF of 8 over a few hundred hands. He sees me as aggro and a blind stealer, I have raised more liberally from the CO (his BB) than I have the button at this table. He has 3bet my "steal attempts" a couple of times already. Right after I played this hand I wondered how narrow his range really is.....and whether I was playing with fire or not (how +EV is this?). I would figure AA/KK for a preflop push and QQ MIGHT fold to my flop line while getting value from 99/TT/AK and bluffs. If you were villain, would you see my line as AA/KK/set and not much else? I can't see ever folding this hand on that flop with committing almost 1/3 the effective stacks preflop...

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

SB ($49)
BB ($79.85)
UTG ($24.75)
UTG+1 ($50)
MP1 ($50.90)
MP2 ($48.40)
MP3 ($6)
Cardsman ($122.90)
Button ($56.30)

Preflop: Cardsman is CO with J, J.
4 folds, Cardsman raises to $2, 2 folds, BB raises to $6.5, Cardsman raises to $22, BB calls $14.

Flop: ($42.75) 8, 2, 3 (3 players)
BB bets $35, Cardsman raises to $102.9 (All-In)......

He has AA/KK 90% and calling or QQ 10% and might fold.

i dont see why you are trying to outplay someone who is going to be ABC at these stakes.
Calling 3bet is easy and from there you need to make a read. You also need to note his 3bet frequency.
if hed done it regularly id call preflop and raise all in

why 4-bet pre when you'd be folding to a push? You don't want to get pot committed pre with JJ...

most of the time you are completely fucked here

I'm amazed if you have any FE at all, he only has $23 after his bet. Also there is absolutely no way I would rule out AA/KK pre as you did.

Once he donks into us on the flop, I like our chances.

His donk was what made me feel better...didn't think he was folding, but I felt if he had a monster, he would check, expect me to bet and then push over me. I still think he pushes AA/KK pf and he only has those maybe 10% of the time. Sets another 10%. I really think he was trying to push me off the hand more than anything else because I think he views my range as waaaay too wide.

Had he check raised me, I would have had to call, but that is when I would figure myself to be crushed. I really thought I was ahead here after the flop.

I didn't think I had a bit of FE, but for some unknown reason he tanked and folded.

Originally Posted by cardsman1992

I didn't think I had a bit of FE.

His line looks like a either a probe bet with a luke-warm hand or bait for a monster. He's certainly a thinking player capable of folding a good hand or playing AKish stuff like then then tanking to make you think he laid down QQish stuff here.