Please rate my play vs a FTRer 100NL regular

My opponent is a FTRer & 2p2 running 15/12/3.5. His 3 bet is 4% and steal is 31%. I'm probably running 13/10/3 with 31% steal in his HUD. Early on, i slow played AA vs his Ts 7s 3 bet IP bluff and CRAI/stacked off on Qd Td 7c flop. At this point, i already built my stack up to $276. When he raised my turn bet, i can put him on 33 or trip kings this deep. My thought process is that if i 3 bet on the turn, any decent regulars would lay down any trips even AK, right? Also, 33 will stack off anyways regardless of rivers cards. There's no way he would call with AA,KK,K6,K3 these hands given his actions. His likely holding after the turn can be narrowed down to 33, KJ, KQ and AK.

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (UTG+1) ($275.90)
MP1 ($208.10)
MP2 ($105.05)
MP3 ($49.50)
CO ($105.65)
Button ($105.30)
SB ($100)
BB ($43.50)
UTG ($109.75)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 6, 6
1 fold, Hero bets $4, MP1 calls $4, 1 fold, MP3 calls $4, 4 folds

Flop: ($13.50) K, 6, 3 (3 players)
Hero bets $9, MP1 calls $9, 1 fold

Turn: ($31.50) K (2 players)
Hero bets $18, MP1 raises $46, Hero calls $28

River: ($123.50) A (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $87, Hero raises $216.90 (All-In), MP1 calls $62.10 (All-In)

Total pot: $421.70

i don't see how you think this is a value shove

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

i don't see how you think this is a value shove

only $ 62 left. his 33 will call anyways.

and he flats 33 on the flop what % of the time? you act like that's his entire range, and I disagree he bet/calls 33 all the time on the river, any handreader vs. you should realize that 66 is like the bottom of your range w/ this line.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

and he flats 33 on the flop what % of the time? you act like that's his entire range, and I disagree he bet/calls 33 all the time on the river, any handreader vs. you should realize that 66 is like the bottom of your range w/ this line.

i did put him on AK and 33 when he bet $87 on the river. In the heat of the moment, i just thought that he might even call $62 more after my shove with the worse trips hands i beat given that its a huge pot already. So anybody would raise set on this flop vs my obvious cbet?

the call on the turn seems really bad to me, then add on the raise on the river??? wtf

on the turn he's either bluffing or he has a big hand
if he's bluffing or semi-bluffing, the river shove is fine
if he's got a big hand, which he probably does, raising the turn is the best play by far.

you really think KQ is betting this much on the river after you called the 3bet turn? plus an ace of diamonds on river... wow i never bet KQ here on river.

Ha, I remember this hand... I didn't know that was u until now As for the hand, just flat river bet... I probly fold everything u beat since u could so easily have AK here.

So how did the coaching from nutsinho work out?

final thoughts, i don't even think he can have KQ/KJ in his PF range

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

if he's got a big hand, which he probably does, raising the turn is the best play by far.

i probably 3 bet on the turn vs other players except FR thinking decent nitty FTRers. I didnt really notice there's another diamond on the river though while multitabling.

Originally Posted by gametight

Ha, I remember this hand... I didn't know that was u until now As for the hand, just flat river bet... I probly fold everything u beat since u could so easily have AK here.

this hand put me on serious tilt,man. Actually, i knew you hit one of your outers on the river . Hmmm, i just couldnt let you have measly $62 left on the table given such a massive pot in the heat of the moment. :P

Kind of an interesting hand from my pov also. I obv showed up with AK here but it makes me think my turn raise is bad. Not many worse kings in ur range here, and probly none ur calling a raise with. Thoughts?? Besides full ring is gay of course.

Full ring is gay.

But yeah river is def. just a flat. I'd just 3bet turn if OP.

And yes turn is a flat if gametight.

Originally Posted by gametight

Kind of an interesting hand from my pov also. I obv showed up with AK here but it makes me think my turn raise is bad. Not many worse kings in ur range here, and probly none ur calling a raise with. Thoughts?? Besides full ring is gay of course.

i think your raise is okay cuz i could easily DB with JJ+,AK,KQ or any flush draws as well as sets. I might or might not call with JJ+ or KQ depending on the game flow.

wow its sick how narrow his turn raisin range is

the turn raise seems pretty bad without some history.

thing with raising turn with AK is you get pwned by better and don't get called by much worse unless you have lots of hsitory.

OP, just flat river and don't feel too thrilled about it.