Insane Hand - AA vs. KK vs. QQ vs. JJ

I can't get the hand converter to work, so here is the raw hand:

Hand #3883112-920 at Abarquh (No Limit Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 06/Jan/05 19:18:14

mcclumpha1 is at seat 0 with $.62.
weggie is at seat 2 with $4.96.
Deavs24 is at seat 3 with $4.08.
pokerjihad is at seat 4 with $1.41.
RoyalWitChees is at seat 5 with $4.96.
427Ford is at seat 6 with $.90.
Zangief0 is at seat 7 with $3.58.
paleface is at seat 8 with $1.68.
Shan027 is at seat 9 with $3.05.
The button is at seat 9.

mcclumpha1 posts the small blind of $.01.
weggie posts the big blind of $.02.

mcclumpha1: -- --
weggie: -- --
Deavs24: -- --
pokerjihad: -- --
RoyalWitChees: -- --
427Ford: -- --
Zangief0: Kd Ks
paleface: -- --
Shan027: -- --

Pre-flop:

Deavs24 raises to $.07. pokerjihad re-raises to $.24.
RoyalWitChees folds. 427Ford calls. Zangief0
re-raises to $1.06. paleface folds. Shan027 folds.
mcclumpha1 folds. weggie goes all-in for $4.96.
Deavs24 goes all-in for $4.08. pokerjihad goes all-in
for $1.41. 427Ford folds. Zangief0 goes all-in for
$3.58. weggie is returned $.88 (uncalled).

Flop (board: Th Tc 5s):

(no action in this round)


Turn (board: Th Tc 5s 8s):

(no action in this round)


River (board: Th Tc 5s 8s 7h):

(no action in this round)




Showdown:

weggie shows Ad Ah.
weggie has Ad Ah Th Tc 8s: two pair, aces and tens.
Deavs24 shows Jd Js.
Deavs24 has Jd Js Th Tc 8s: two pair, jacks and tens.
pokerjihad shows Qh Qs.
pokerjihad has Qh Qs Th Tc 8s: two pair, queens and tens.
Zangief0 shows Kd Ks.
Zangief0 has Kd Ks Th Tc 8s: two pair, kings and tens.


Hand #3883112-920 Summary:

No rake is taken for this hand.
weggie wins the main pot $5.89 with two pair, aces and tens.
weggie wins side pot #1 $6.51 with two pair, aces and tens.
weggie wins side pot #2 $1 with two pair, aces and tens.
----------------------------------------------------------------

AA vs. KK vs. QQ vs. JJ, with TT on the flop!

Does anyone know what the odds of this are? Has anyone ever seen this before?

In this case, I was Zangief0, so got smoked.

Odds... (1/221)^5 maybe?

- sed

Originally Posted by sed

Odds... (1/221)^5 maybe?

That's what I was originally thinking, but this page made me start to question that:

http://www.learn-texas-holdem.com/te...babilities.htm

It says the odds of AA vs. KK pre-flop is 1 / 22560, which is not the same as (1 / 221)^2 = 1 / 48841.

[Sit here, thinking ....]

Oh, I think I've got it:

Odds of AA vs. KK:

8 / 52 * 3 / 51 * 4 / 50 * 3 / 49 = about 1 / 22560

Then odds of AA vs. KK vs. QQ vs. JJ:

16 / 52 * 3 / 51 * 12 / 50 * 3 / 49 * 8 / 48 * 3 / 47 * 4 / 46 * 3 / 45 =

497,664 / 30,342,338,208,000 = about 1.64e-8 = about 1 / 60,969,526

Less than 1 in 60 million - wow!

(Sorry to answer my own question, but I just figured it out.)

Anyone else ever seen this?

That is one cold deck going into the flop!


The closest I've seen was in a short-handed home game of only 4 players. KK vs QQ vs JJ. I had the KK and took it down.

You'd think that JJ, maybe QQ and maybe even a very savy KK (longshot) could let their hands go preflop.

-'rilla

i'd figure at least the JJ would let it go. QQ only had a buck or something and figured he'd take his chance on a very large pot ..

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

You'd think that JJ, maybe QQ and maybe even a very savy KK (longshot) could let their hands go preflop.

I didn't set the stage well enough: Within 5 hands before this one, 4-5 people went all-in with pretty much all rags - I think KTo was the best hand. Anyway, someone won that ridiculous hand with 82 spades, making a flush.

So the stage was set for anyone getting a strong hand to really push it here.

Also, I had previously been heads up against weggie where I had KK and he had QQ. So I really didn't see folding as an option here.

I was on the losing end of a AA vs KK vs KK battle once. I pushed after the limpers...and got two callers

Ive had dreams of it.

I see AA v. KK every day and often multiple times a day.

I have also seen set over set over set, and on a few occasions the AA v. QQ v. JJ v. 99 etc...

Aside from play money I have never had a royal flush or str8 flush for that matter, although I have witnessed them

Originally Posted by sed

Odds... (1/221)^5 maybe?

- sed

not even close

Originally Posted by Zangief

Originally Posted by sed

Odds... (1/221)^5 maybe?

That's what I was originally thinking, but this page made me start to question that:

http://www.learn-texas-holdem.com/te...babilities.htm

It says the odds of AA vs. KK pre-flop is 1 / 22560, which is not the same as (1 / 221)^2 = 1 / 48841.

[Sit here, thinking ....]

Oh, I think I've got it:

Odds of AA vs. KK:

8 / 52 * 3 / 51 * 4 / 50 * 3 / 49 = about 1 / 22560

Then odds of AA vs. KK vs. QQ vs. JJ:

16 / 52 * 3 / 51 * 12 / 50 * 3 / 49 * 8 / 48 * 3 / 47 * 4 / 46 * 3 / 45 =

497,664 / 30,342,338,208,000 = about 1.64e-8 = about 1 / 60,969,526

Less than 1 in 60 million - wow!

(Sorry to answer my own question, but I just figured it out.)

Anyone else ever seen this?

I don't have time to go into detail right now, but clearly these odds are incorrect. The odds for AA vs KK in 10 person ring game compared to heads up are very different.

And its also flawed thinking on those odds. If when you have KK you're thinking about the odds of AA and KK being in the same hand, its not the right way to think about it, as you already know a KK is in the hand, so ignore that part. Its just about the odds that one of the other players has AA. The odds of there being AA and KK in hands where you don't know one is out there should more be thought of in the line of wondering if that matchup is going to happen in X# of hands, which really isn't that useful.

My biggest hand like this was when I first started playing NL ring on Party way back in the day. I had QQ and was all in preflop against AA, another AA, and KK, and I flopped a set (and the AAs were drawing dead). I was too fishy back then to be able to recognize that my QQ must not be good and lay it down, after all the raising preflop (some of which I did), that kept getting raised more and more until everyone was all in.