CaptZEEbo's full house theorem (probably a dumb thread)

[mcatdog]

This is sort of a low content post to brag about the big pot I just won, but I also have a legitimate question. I took another shot at 200NL tonight because one of the players on my buddy list had a huge stack there and the seat directly to his left was open. We're talking 90% VPIP, go all the way to the river with any pair bad. So this hand came up where I flopped trip aces against him and he checkraised me, and being as he was a donkey, I decided to just let him hang himself. When the river gave me quads, I remembered CaptZEEbo's full house theorem, so I just went all-in and he insta-called me with 83o. I love poker.

Anyway, here's the full house theorem.

Nobody is capable of folding a full house on any street for any sized bet, ever. Don't fool yourself into thinking they can. I'm not even referring to NUT full houses (eg. board reads 29522, if your opponent has the loan 5, they will almost always call allin; if they folded, it was likely do to timing out or a misclick). Remember: full houses aren't too common, and after all, you might be bluffing!

Ways to exploit:

If you expect someone has a full house, and you can't beat a full house never ever bluff. If you expect someone has a full house and you can beat their likely full house, go allin. Let's say the board is 29522, and you have TT or better, go allin no matter what the size of the pot is, b/c they can't fold.

In general do you agree with his advice? If you didn't know that the villain in this hand was donktastic, would you have still pushed the river like I did, or made a smaller raise that you thought was more call-able?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($58.45)
MP ($28)
CO ($279.95)
Hero ($277)
SB ($270.60)
BB ($200)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, T.
2 folds, CO calls $2, Hero raises to $10, 2 folds, CO calls $8.

Flop: ($23) A, 9, A (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $14, CO raises to $32, Hero calls $18.

Turn: ($87) 8 (2 players)
CO bets $42, Hero calls $42.

River: ($171) A (2 players)
CO bets $16, Hero raises to $193, CO calls $177.

Final Pot: $557

[WildBobAA]

I think it would be relativaly easy to get away from a 5 on a 22592 board in the right situation. Like if i call the blind w/ A5 and it gets checked the the river and villian pushes.

No wonder he's "near busto"

[Miffed22001]

easy push, especially the way the guy played it; like a dick/fish
that guy sucks

As for the thorem na. Im neve calling an all in on the river with the nut full house if quads are possible. Id probably (and have done) call some heafty bets but without a strong read i dont like calling big bets with second best