Also, if he is semi-bluffing, what makes you think he won't just push over you on the turn with your 1/2 pot lead anyway? If someone pushes over you here do you just assume set? Do you check/fold a scare card on the turn?
Because to my experience, players at 50NL will take stabs at lagginess on the flop when they have position and you seem weak, but will not follow up with any substantial action on the turn if you play back at them. And yes, I absolutely assume set if pushed over on turn and would fold.

Lead for more on the flop.
Well, but the whole point of my line here is to induce a bullshit positional flop raise from villain. Do you just think this is generally a bad line to take?