99 underpair turns set vs nit, 100nl

This hand caused a bunch of debate on my flop play
iopq> I bet ATC
<iopq> especially on K high board
<oskar> wut?
<oskar> he's oop
<daven> you funny sometimes dude
<iopq> hero is oop
<oskar> and he's the pfr
<iopq> when I am villain
<iopq> and I called a raise pf
<iopq> and guy checks to me
<iopq> I bet ATC
<daven> dude, i c-c that flop
<oskar> yeah
<AFchung> aren't you turning 99 into 23o when you just check/fold flop lol
<oskar> you do
<daven> who said anything about c-f?
<AFchung> so you're c/cing flop and c/fing turn?
<daven> i'm at least gonna rep AdQd or something, hell, c-shove is almost ok - but not
<iopq> so we're c/cing here? hmm
<daven> he's checking behind like always
<iopq> why would he
<daven> cos it's full ring
<iopq> if he has any piece he should bet
<oskar> you keep making the same mistake of thinking everyone thinks like you iopq
<oskar> but nobody does
<oskar> :P
<iopq> actually they do
<iopq> that place is called 6m
<daven> no he shouldn't...
<daven> he's a nit and thinks I check my monsters, my draws, and my air
<daven> he's scared
<daven> he has 90% fold to cbet and he's like 12-8
<daven> he's never betting except maybe a draw or AK
<daven> and c-c is fine
<iopq> then bet and let him fold a jack?
<daven> nope, he'll fold to my turn barrel instead
<iopq> 90% fold to cbet
<iopq> is top pair or better
<iopq> unless he only calls raises
<daven> and he has low pocket pairs way more than middle pair
<iopq> with pps
<oskar> (12:11:11 PM) daven: he has 90% fold to cbet and he's like 12-8
<daven> so value comes on the turn, if anywhere
<oskar> that can't be right
<iopq> in fact I think he still has top pair more than 15% of the time
<daven> stats are 13/8/1.8/33
<daven> vp/pfr/3-bet/steal
<iopq> what's his fold to cbet
<iopq> for real reals
<daven> and 33/33/90/88/350
<iopq> not for play play
<daven> fold to 3-bet/4-bet/c-bet/fold to c-bet/hands
<daven> those are his stats
<iopq> oh 350 hands
<daven> oskar, look up thedevonian for iopq
<daven> anyway, session over
<daven> i ran bang on ev for once, so ship the 3 buyins
<iopq> ok so let's split up your hands into ranges
<iopq> what's the top of your range, like hands you'd bet and continue to a raise
<daven> i don't value bet the flop against this guy
<oskar> (12:13:39 PM) daven: oskar, look up thedevonian for iopq
<iopq> on this flop
<oskar> haha
<daven> cos of his fold to c-bet
<oskar> rakeback pro
<daven> ducy?!?
<iopq> ok you have set of kings, you don't bet and you expect him to check behind, hit a diamond and stack you
<iopq> good thinking
<daven> exactly, my image against him is kinda lag 17-14 i guess
<oskar> he can't bet for value, and it's too close for a bluff
<daven> meh, he has a fd about never
<daven> start thinking ranges, and max-EV vs range, not fear vs a tiny part of range
<iopq> so you basically
<daven> and he won't stack me
<iopq> have NO hand that you will cbet against him
<iopq> other than as a bluff
<daven> got it
<daven> i don't need to balance against him
<iopq> ok say he has bottom set and you have top set
<iopq> turn is a diamond
<daven> and the 99 hand just proves that I don't cbet as a bluff if he takes a note
<iopq> can you stack him?
<daven> he doesn't check 88 behind
<iopq> no, he bets it and what do you c/r
<iopq> your top set?
<daven> on that flop
<daven> sure, and he reads mix nuts/draws cos it's uber-draw land
<iopq> or do you call
<daven> and he stacks
<iopq> so you play the top of your range with a c/r on the flop
<iopq> that means slightly weaker hands you're going to c/c?
<daven> or check-fold, think about how that kind of player plays
<iopq> well 99 is a lot weaker
<iopq> ok, do you c/f AK in this spot
<daven> wtf?
<iopq> or is that strong enough to c/r
<daven> i c-c
<iopq> well that's what I was asking
<iopq> and you said you could c/f slightly weaker hands
<iopq> ok, now hands that are too weak to c/c
<iopq> what are you going to do with them
<daven> 22-66
<iopq> c/f or b/f?
<daven> c/f or b/f
<daven> 89s
<iopq> I'm asking you, are you b/fing against this player or c/fing
<daven> I think I c-f none of my range here
<daven> I bet-fold air
<daven> I c-c showdown value vs his bet when checked to range, that and draws
<daven> I c-r monsters
<daven> and monster draws
<iopq> I think you can have a c/f range that is stronger than your b/f range if you think you're going to show your hand down
<iopq> if it's good
<iopq> and you think he won't bluff you
<iopq> so he will bet a better hand
<iopq> and try to show down worse
<iopq> so actually I'd like to c/f 99 here
<iopq> and b/f 89
<iopq> because 89 is kind of a semi-bluff
<iopq> and can improve over a bigger pair
<iopq> like TT or 99
<daven> he's folding TT
<daven> and 99
<daven> get it?
<daven> 90% fold to cbet

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
7 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero (UTG) ($126.00)
UTG+1 ($138.00)
MP ($134.00)
CO ($52.50)
BTN ($17.50)
SB ($19.00)
BB ($22.00)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 7 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $3.50, 2 folds, CO calls $3.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($8.50, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: ($8.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $7, CO calls $7

River: ($22.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $14,

I don't see how iopq thinks he's going to fold a jack to a bet. I know 90% fold to cbet, but what sample size is that? Surely nobody folds a jack here!

This is actually quite an interesting discussion. My first thought was that I'd be betting this flop almost always, but against this particular player it looks like we can actually go for SD value straightaway even OOP. The problem is that if you check and he bets, it's unlikely he's stabbing at the pot since he's so weak so it is a c/f once you check.

So the question is do we bet to protect our 90%+ equity against his underpairs or try and check it down to minimize the chance of letting him stab. Also, we lose less against his better hands. The way that is phrased makes it sound like a c/f on every street if we are sure this player won't make a stab at the pot with AQ/underpairs, but then that seems massively weak.

hrmm..

I c/c 1 street unless he 2barrels a decent % then I c-bet. Other then that Iunno what the issue is here or am I missing something?

bet the flap

whats our range here!? Sooted connectors FFS

He called in the CO so his range either totally hit this flop or totally missed it

Originally Posted by Instant Aces

I c/c 1 street unless he 2barrels a decent % then I c-bet. Other then that Iunno what the issue is here or am I missing something?

I think if he's really nitty there's no value in calling a street and if we check flop we're just folding

check/folding the flop is ok sometimes but I normally just cbet against a random. Obviously bet turn bet riv