i think he will be holding K-Q here probably 20% of the time.

I make that assumption on the statement that villain likes to call too much preflop. Assuming all hands have an equal probability of being held, he could be holding:

1). A-Q
2). K-Q
3). Q-J
4). Q-10
5). Q-9

He could be holding a flush only with Ah-Qh, so he might hold that something like 5% of the time. I wouldn't give villain credit for a set or an overpair either, since he didn't raise on the flop or the turn.

If his showdown % is 20, there is a good chance you can push him off of two pair type hands on this board. As played i think it is possible you were holding K-K, or K-Q (well repped).

You can villan to fold 75% of his range on this river. There is ~$100 in the pot, and you are risking ~$115. This play only needs to work 30% of the time for it to be profitable, IMO.

So, i think it is +EV.