200nl FR... how's my line?

villain is redacesfull
I have 2.6k hands on this a$$hole but have not played for any large pots together. He's 11.3% VPIP, 7% PFR, 3.9 Aggro factor.

This is a line I like to take when we are in a way ahead / way behind situation oop. Not too worried about much, turn sucks, but how's my line overall?

No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 ($208.25)
CO ($200)
Button ($171.20)
SB ($200)
BB ($332.70)
UTG ($200)
Hero (UTG+1) ($286.55)
MP1 ($96.20)
MP2 ($324.40)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q, A
1 fold, Hero bets $8, 1 fold, MP2 calls $8, 5 folds

Flop: ($19) Q, 3, 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $14, Hero calls $14

Turn: ($47) K (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $24, Hero calls $24

River: ($95) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $72, Hero calls $72

Total pot: $239

River call seems bad when he can have BDFD's KQ and slowplayed KK and AA. His bet sizing seems to suggest he has the nuts though I haven't played with him in ages so I really can't remember reads off hand. But I don't think there are many people bad/good enough to triple barrel you off like what appears to be JJ here.

I really hate this line btw. Unless you balance this line, you'll be getting exploited way too often.

I really dislike the line.
I prefer c-betting flop cos I c-bet both AK and AA here and he's going to be calling at least one street with most of his range.

As played I bet-fold turn for $35ish.

For this line to be good wouldn't your oppenent need to be really spewy instead of massively nitty?

Originally Posted by badgers

For this line to be good wouldn't your oppenent need to be really spewy instead of massively nitty?

Yeah this makes a lot of sense.

Makes me wonder how the hell I'm in the positive.

Because you hand read really well and never tilt?

fwiw although I disagree with the way you planned the hand on the flop, I think the turn is great since he will barrel it 100% of the time. After the turn comes I think your line is fine, maybe you know more about this guy than me anyway.

whenever i take a similar line and then they fire the river real big, i'm like, fux, well i induced this and they have to barrel their air to make me fold, i call. And the results are: if villain is a nit, he has a flush or better. If villain is an aggro reg, he sometimes has the nuts and he sometimes has random air.

I'd almost never expect this to be AK.

Basically i agree that it's a bad plan vs this guy, the turn is good, and the river sucks but i think you should fold given reads/betsizing.

Originally Posted by TwoSmeets

I'd almost never expect this to be AK.

I realize I'm not contributing, but lol, nitring

wierd fucking hand i can only put him on ak

Originally Posted by ZwiFT

wierd fucking hand i can only put him on ak

which is exactly why this is a call imo.

why can't he have QQ, KQ

He folds KQ pre and there's only one combo of QQ so it's a fairly insignificant part of his range. I guess he can maybe have AA/KK some of the time also.

Originally Posted by badgers

He folds KQ pre and there's only one combo of QQ so it's a fairly insignificant part of his range. I guess he can maybe have AA/KK some of the time also.

What badgers said. One combo plus playing QQ this way after hero checks the flop is highly unlikely

calling your opponent an a$$hole isn't going to help you think about the hand objectively.

Meh, this is so read driven. If you play with him a lot, doing this sometimes is good.