100nl, i fucking hate this a lot QQ vs a tricky nit

villain is 8.73/3.17/3.3 over 126 hands. I made such a small probe bet cuz i wanted to take down the pot on flop if possible and left some room to exit if the nit shove over. Do you guys think he made a tricky play or just some stone bluff in this spot? shove or fold?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($96)
UTG+1 ($107.55)
MP1 ($112.40)
Hero ($90.50)
CO ($101)
Button ($47.30)
SB ($99)
BB ($145.70)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q, Q.
UTG calls $1, 1 fold, MP1 calls $1, Hero raises to $6, 1 fold, Button calls $6, 2 folds, UTG raises to $17, MP1 folds, Hero calls $11, Button calls $11.

Flop: ($53.50) 5, T, 7 (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $16, Button folds, UTG raises to $40 ?

What range do you think he checks on the flop?

i put him on AA , kk or AK bluffing line on this safe board.

Originally Posted by Fnord

What range do you think he checks on the flop?

Fold preflop check flop as played fold. I mean... look at his stats you really think he's bluffing here?

i really saw some nits limp/raise big with AK before in my games.

Originally Posted by badgers

Fold preflop check flop as played fold. I mean... look at his stats you really think he's bluffing here?

Originally Posted by badgers

Fold preflop

This is probably a good spot to fold QQ preflop.

You're up against a nit who appears to be pulling the ol' limp/3-bet AA/KK from EP. I hate that move except in late tourney, but it seems to be popular enough in FR that we've gotta consider it fairly seriously. I rarely see nits do that with AK/QQ. Mostly with KK/AA

A 3% PFR's 3-betting range is small enough, but I think throwing in the limp/3-bet from EP, we can limit nit's range to the point where QQ is behind most if not all of it. I think the best we're hoping for here is a split pot unless you've got some post-flop read that he'd do this with a missed AK.

Not a bad bluff if he is...

this is the easiest preflop fold ive seen all week

Originally Posted by pokerfan

i really saw some nits limp/raise big with AK before in my games.

Originally Posted by badgers

Fold preflop check flop as played fold. I mean... look at his stats you really think he's bluffing here?

I'm nit and I often limp -3bet KK+ and AK. It's sick profitable because almost everyone on my stakes (lol micros 50nl) don't know how to correctly counter against it even when they know my exact LRR range. Thwy either stack off too often when I have overpair or incorrectly fold too often (missed PP's, SC's who try to hit big but hit only pair) when I have overcards.

If I'm wrong in this analysis, please correct me.

Correct play is fold QQ- (just dump it, it's no good vs KK+, AK range, we are game-theory owned and can't set-farm with profit), and flat call with KK and AA (to trap AK for c-bet on airball flop), fold KK to c-bet on Axx and play for stacks AA/KK overpair on blank boards. Our calling range is even nittier but this way we crush villain when he flops pair of Kings with his AK and can't let it go. We also have improved equity with KK vs AK on blanks, because villain has only 3 live outs.

This way we stack AK when it hits Kxx, win decent pot when villain c-bets his missed AK, we get stacked KK vs AA anyway (but it works the other way around if we have Aces) and we get away with KK on Axx when the best outcom can be tie vs another KK.

The counter vs our counter that villain can do may be LRR wider range than KK+, AK, then pound Axx boards as bluff (because we have mainly KK when we flat-call his 3bet) and stack off with "hit 2p or better" boards for value.

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

this is the easiest preflop fold ive seen all week

Yup


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

equity win tie
Hand 0: 60.143% 59.92% 00.22% { KK+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 39.857% 39.64% 00.22% { QQ }

this line is good in Heads Up pot Some retarded players even limp/3 bet with medium pockets. I agree that i should've dumped it preflop given such nitty stats even if the sample size(126 hands total) is very small though.

Originally Posted by Vrax

Correct play is fold QQ- (just dump it, it's no good vs KK+, AK range, we are game-theory owned and can't set-farm with profit), and flat call with KK and AA (to trap AK for c-bet on airball flop),

Originally Posted by Fnord

What range do you think he checks on the flop?

If he's nit and he's tricky, he can go for check/raise here with a such a mixup of AK/KK+, that we still don't know where we are, because we made insufficient comitment threat with our little tinky-winky flop bet. Villain won the race to the pressure point of the hand, so whatever he has (AK semibluff or Aces), we're in huge disadvantage.

Straightforward nit by check/bombing this flop basically says "lol I trapped you with my Aces preflop and I'm doing it AGAIN on flop because I feel like FPSing, ship it or take my stack with your set, buddy".

edit: For that nit it's really great spot to limp squeeze UTG if he's aware of his image and is willing to use it.

Originally Posted by Fnord

What range do you think he checks on the flop?

And why in the world are we betting?

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

And why in the world are we betting?

yep, check behind and hit your two-outer!

Do you guys really think lots of ppl play tricky and check/raise AA/KK in multiway pot? when this guy checked in 3 way pot, i had to assume that he could very well have AK/AKs in his range.Throwing out a probe bet with the intention of folding is the best line. Actually, we cant really afford to give our two opponents free cards in a BIG pot.

Originally Posted by daven

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

And why in the world are we betting?

yep, check behind and hit your two-outer!

Originally Posted by JL

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

this is the easiest preflop fold ive seen all week

Yup

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

equity win tie
Hand 0: 60.143% 59.92% 00.22% { KK+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 39.857% 39.64% 00.22% { QQ }

I don't think it's that clear cut here. I think it's close on implied odds to set hunt. Pot is $31.5 (before we and button calls). that gives us around 3-1 pot odds adding to that our remaining stack, we have a potential implied odds of 9-1 (if button calls that's 10-1). The odds of us flopping a set or better and villain not are 8.3-1. If to that we add the probability that villain might check flop which gives us more % of hitting our set on the turn, I think this one is close ...
With 3 AF he still stack off if we hit a Q on flop (unless he has KK and a A hits).

Originally Posted by pokerfan

Do you guys really think lots of ppl play tricky and check/raise AA/KK in multiway pot? when this guy checked in 3 way pot, i had to assume that he could very well have AK/AKs in his range.Throwing out a probe bet with the intention of folding is the best line. Actually, we cant really afford to give our two opponents free cards in a BIG pot.

Given villain's PF stats, we know he has KK+ almost everytime here (very rarely you'll see AK. You have to check the flop.

[quote="pokerfan"]Do you guys really think lots of ppl play tricky and check/raise AA/KK in multiway pot? [quote="daven"]

If I am in early position and I observe nits lined up behind me give their standard 5bb+ iso raise against the field more frequently than normal, I will limp A,A and K,K to catch them, and I laugh that it works as much as it does. I have even gotten them to go all in full stacked with A,K pf.

If someone limp-re-raises me, it is an immediate read of A,A or K,K. Funny enough, if they are bluffing, they get the urge to show it afterward, and I make a note of it to catch them later (which happens since they can't help themselves).

Originally Posted by pokerfan

Do you guys really think lots of ppl play tricky and check/raise AA/KK in multiway pot? when this guy checked in 3 way pot, i had to assume that he could very well have AK/AKs in his range.Throwing out a probe bet with the intention of folding is the best line. Actually, we cant really afford to give our two opponents free cards in a BIG pot.

Calculate how often an A or K comes on the turn WHEN we're actually ahead, its not as often as you think. Betting with the intention of folding with an overpair here (and a hand as strong as QQ) turns our hand into a bluff.

i check behind HeadsUP pot in this weird situation but not in multiway . Keep it in mind that we still have another guy yet to act, who might have over cards too or set hunting with pairs.

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Originally Posted by pokerfan

Do you guys really think lots of ppl play tricky and check/raise AA/KK in multiway pot? when this guy checked in 3 way pot, i had to assume that he could very well have AK/AKs in his range.Throwing out a probe bet with the intention of folding is the best line. Actually, we cant really afford to give our two opponents free cards in a BIG pot.

Calculate how often an A or K comes on the turn WHEN we're actually ahead, its not as often as you think. Betting with the intention of folding with an overpair here (and a hand as strong as QQ) turns our hand into a bluff.

This is such a clear flop check, if the other guys has overcards too then that just takes away from the outs of the guy with AK which incidently he very rarely has...

At worst we are letting them draw to max 8 outs between them which I'm not too worried about since our hand is usually crushed. Tbh I'd be happy to get my free draw to 2 outs.