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 Originally Posted by boost
If you chose to stick with the first pick you are making a 50/50 gamble. If you change your door you are making a 50/50 gamble. It doesn't either way.
This was my initial thought when someone posed this question to me. The real answer is not this and therefor really interesting.
I forget how it was explained to me, but imagine you buy a lottery ticket. Someone else in the world then reveals that every other lotto ticket but one has lost. He then offers you to swap your ticket for this other ticket.
Do you switch? I don't think this is the best example because it still *seems* like it's 50/50, but it's closer to 100% that switching nets you the win.
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