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My predictions for what big things will get cut down the road:
1) most of arya and the hound's adventures
2) all non-essential iron islands stuff, no damphair, no kingsmoot. Balon will just die and Euron will take over and send Victarion to get Dany.
3) quentyn martell's entire story. The harpies will probably release Dany's dragons on meereen.
4) most of aegon's stuff will be excised, he'll probably just start randomly showing up wreaking havoc on the stormlands, and tyrion will probably instantly fall in Jorah's hands as soon as he steps off of Varys's boat.
5) the entire brienne subplot in affc.
This is all keeping in mind that they intend to conclude the series in 7 seasons which is an absurd notion. I think its too early to completely determine that the series has jumped the shark, but I don't have faith in the screenwriter of Troy (one of the worst big budget pictures of all time) and X-Men Wolverine (the worst big budget picture of all time) to manage sweeping changes to George R.R. Martin's story with any semblance of grace.
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