Yeah my thoughts have been that the only way Paul wins is HU vs Romney, and Paul hits him with a sledge hammer over and over. Romney would have a pretty easy 60% default in that race, but Paul could still beat that if he fought hard enough

The evangelicals are definitely not-Romneys, but also largely not-Pauls. I think with enough crushing from the Paul campaign, they could switch to just not-Romneys though