Randomness thread, part two.

[spoonitnow]

I'm the exact other side. I just couldn't get into Terraria even though it looks more action filled fun, while spelunking or exploring Hell in Minecraft is right up my alley.

I like the exploration of Terraria and building contraptions to automate annoying grinding shit. I kept losing track of which direction was which in Minecraft, though that might be in part because I was playing from a touch pad instead of using a mouse, so it was a little hard to control at times.

[a500lbgorilla]

If you ever get around to reading Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahnmann, he basically nails the psychological problem as "What You See Is All There Is" coupled with the slow, pensive, intentional, rational mind being lazy and usually just letting the quick associative mind have say.

It's impossible to be aware of every single facet of a situation, and things that you're fully unaware of have no impact on your opinion, and that opinion usually isn't vetted properly because it's a bit tiring and the brain isn't the biggest fan of working things through. People usually rely on lazy work-arounds to solve problems, while others get good at tricking these heuristics.

Along this same line: "The Engineer's Lament" http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/20...gineers-lament

Fantastic article by Malcolm Gladwell (Blink, Tipping Point, etc) about the conflict between engineers and the public at large. Engineering design is a very rational process and it can only attempt to design within some tolerance of failure/window of error. Even with redundant systems or fail-safe design, it's impossible to design for everything. To the public without years of education in math and physics and the experience applying them novelly, it means absolutely nothing and so does not factor in to their beliefs at all. Instead, they see it in simpler terms and so have difficulty not seeing the engineers as being heartless in the pursuit of profit.

"What did Toyota’s engineers find? When the pedal stuck, it made no difference in how quickly the car could be brought to a stop: the brakes were powerful enough to override the problem if applied with sufficient force. Then they looked at the federal accident database, and learned that no crash had been credited to a sticky accelerator pedal. The system was, to their mind, sufficiently tolerant of imperfection. They decided against an immediate recall, choosing instead to redesign the part and introduce it in new model lines. Their solution was not empathy or care. It was play at night*.

The public saw things very differently. They didn’t think about the necessary compromises inherent in the design process. They didn’t understand that a car was engineered to be tolerant of things like sticky pedals. They looked at the part in isolation, saw that it did not work as they expected it to work—and foresaw the worst. What if an inexperienced driver found his car behaving unexpectedly and panicked? To the engineer, a car sits somewhere on the gradient of acceptability. To the public, a car’s status is binary: it is either broken or working, flawed or functional."

*Play at Night references an old joke about an engineer, a priest, and a doctor enjoying a round of golf. Ahead of them is a group playing so slowly and inexpertly that in frustration the three ask the greenkeeper for an explanation. “That’s a group of blind firefighters,” they are told. “They lost their sight saving our clubhouse last year, so we let them play for free.

”The priest says, “I will say a prayer for them tonight.”

The doctor says, “Let me ask my ophthalmologist colleagues if anything can be done for them.”

And the engineer says, “Why can’t they play at night?”

[a500lbgorilla]

I like the exploration of Terraria and building contraptions to automate annoying grinding shit. I kept losing track of which direction was which in Minecraft, though that might be in part because I was playing from a touch pad instead of using a mouse, so it was a little hard to control at times.

There are new gizmos to help: Compasses, maps, and whatnot. Plus I always build monuments that indicate which direction is back home whenever I explore in any direction, so all paths lead back to Rome. I still get lost underground though.

[MadMojoMonkey]

There are new gizmos to help: Compasses, maps, and whatnot. Plus I always build monuments that indicate which direction is back home whenever I explore in any direction, so all paths lead back to Rome. I still get lost underground though.

Underground, follow a simple rule: Always place torches on the right-hand wall. This way, whenever you are lost, just keep running so that torches are on your left. To avoid leaving large caverns unlit, feel free to place torches on the floor anywhere you like, but those do not indicate any direction.

In the Nether (Hell), I use monuments, which is an over-glorified term for a 2-high stack of cobble with a torch on the side which points home. Except in Nether Fortresses, which I use a 3x1 cobble slab just over head height with a torch on the side that points home. This is so I always have a safe place to run from Wither Skeletons, which are too tall to walk under a 2-high gap.

***
Maps can be helpful, but I hate the map mechanics. The un-expanded maps are too small to be useful. The expanded maps are marginally useful, but very hard to get a set of them with the edges aligning appropriately. The GUI blocks the bottom half of the screen when you look at the map, so it's all-too-easy to fall down a crevasse while using it.

I prefer to use the F3 keyboard button to show my (x,y,z) coordinates in the minecraft world. I write these down with a note about what is of interest at that location using a "Book and Quill" which I keep in my inventory. It is important to not sign the book and quill when I close its GUI, as signing it means it can no longer be changed.

Once I have the materials to make Ender Chests (and the Silk Touch pickaxe to gather them up), the unsigned book and quill goes in there.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Along this same line: "The Engineer's Lament" http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/20...gineers-lament

Yeah. It's tough to realize that there's a mathematically defined "Factor of Safety" (FS) for all the things.

Things are designed for a specific maximum loading. That loading is 1/FS times the failure criteria for the thing. So you would have to load it n times to reach the failure criteria and n is the FS.

Think of anything around you. Estimate how hard you would have to try to break it. Divide that by how the manufacturer expected you to use it. This is a rough estimate of the FS.

It's interesting to look at the standards in various situations. Most of the stuff we use in everyday life is designed for FS of ~2 - 5. Obv. this is a broad estimate. For military aircraft, a typical FS is ~1.1 to 1.3. They are really scraping the edge of safety at the cost of a rigorous and expensive maintenance schedule. At the other extreme, architecture tends to run 50+ FS on almost everything they do.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I threw it on to see how well it would run on the new laptop. I haven't really played it in a while, but I only ever played vanilla unless I was on a server playing with others and then, whatever mods they had set up.

How deep did you get into it?

One of the things I like about minecraft is that it can be approached in so many different ways. My neighbor plays it from time to time, but he kinda threats it like Resident Evil or something. He never really makes a base, just explores the world on a killing rampage.

Did you use redstone for anything?

[spoonitnow]

I can't remember if I've talked about this here before, but I put together a system that automates the build-up of Twitter accounts while staying under the spam radar last year, and this year I gave it a better web-based front-end instead of just some thrown together crap that looked like shit. There are a lot of similar paid solutions, but I like building things.

The basic idea is that it creates a database of users (aka our victims) that we want to target in a particular demographic. Next, it follows X number of these each day while unfollowing them somewhere between six and ten days later at random. About 30 percent of those X users end up following the account, and about 10 percent of those who follow (about 3 percent of the total users followed) actually unfollow after I do.

In tandem with that, I use Hootsuite to import a spreadsheet of status updates each month. This uploading of the spreadsheet is also automated, and the building of the spreadsheet is automated. The status updates are pulled from another table in a database that scrapes "inspirational quotes," quotes related to the demographic/industry being targeted, pictures of quotes related scraped from Google Images and Pinterest, etc. This helps to make the account look more natural and to build up a natural number of retweets, favorites, etc. It also helps follower retention.

I have to keep a computer available and connected to the Internet to do the actual automated following and unfollowing, so I use a VPS that costs like $10/month. At some point I forgot to pay the bill or my automated billing didn't automatically bill or something, and I completely forgot about it. I started it back up with some fresh accounts a few days ago, and I'm so excited to see my shit grow. It's like my own personal Farmville or something.

[spoonitnow]

In the middle of a trip to take my girls to see some art shit:

"Leonardo da Vinci’s Codex Leicester and the Creative Mind"
http://ncartmuseum.org/exhibitions/view/11361

"The Worlds of M. C. Escher: Nature, Science, and Imagination"
http://ncartmuseum.org/exhibitions/view/11364

I'm not really into the shit personally, but I know they were really excited about going to see this shit, so I'm like w/e.

Funny picture from this weekend. It's Kirby mofuckah.

[a500lbgorilla]

How deep did you get into it?

One of the things I like about minecraft is that it can be approached in so many different ways. My neighbor plays it from time to time, but he kinda threats it like Resident Evil or something. He never really makes a base, just explores the world on a killing rampage.

Did you use redstone for anything?

When I was into Minecraft, the Nether was new and it didn't have dungeons. I've played since and cleared a few nether dungeons, made some potions, enchanted some stuff, saw one of those portals to the end, but that's about it. I really liked building crazy monuments, like an Aztec pyramid with a sacrificial lava pool that, if you jumped in, would drop you safely to a room near bedrock with a nether portal or a stairway around a mountain to a pantheon at cloud level. I liked changing the landscape.

[wufwugy]

looking up famous rapper names, see missy elliot, think she's kinda hot, look up missy elliot music video, nope not hot

whatever happened to the good days of tlc, 12 yr old me didnt know why these girls so smokin

[spoonitnow]

looking up famous rapper names, see missy elliot, think she's kinda hot, look up missy elliot music video, nope not hot

whatever happened to the good days of tlc, 12 yr old me didnt know why these girls so smokin

Missy Elliot is kind of hit and miss in a way that I haven't really seen other women achieve. The variance in how good or not good she looks is pretty astounding for a celebrity type.

[wufwugy]

and people wonder why trump is popular.

who's to blame? large subsets of islamic cultures that breed this crap? the government being relied upon for inept security? our own culture loving the idea that people are inherently good and will embrace our way of life just by showing them what we're like? delinquents not being forced to live according to norms?

not to get back to what we always do, but this boils down to a problem of government. how many property owners are as lax about who comes in and out of their dwellings as governments? none in their rights minds, so clearly governmental security standards do not live up to everyday life security standards. but governments have to be lax because if they're not then their monopoly power runs amok and orwells everybody. solution: get rid of monopolies.

[JKDS]

You guys hear about this Ted Bundy fellow? Whitey just straight up raped and murdered over 30 people.

Obviously, white men are evil and need to be purged from America.

[wufwugy]

You guys hear about this Ted Bundy fellow? Whitey just straight up raped and murdered over 30 people.

Obviously, white men are evil and need to be purged from America.

Two entirely different things. Bundy did what he did despite the deterrent attempts of his environment. Islamic rapists have little deterrence from their environments, and it's exactly because they are Muslims that they get this special treatment.

[wufwugy]

not to mention that seven men committing a crime comes from a different place than one man committing a crime. did seven bundies magically find each other so that they could conduct their misdeeds as bros? a serial killer is usually a psychopath. gang rape is very cultural.

[JKDS]

Let's execute African Americans then, because bloods crypts. Deport all italians, because of the mafia. Better get rid of mexicans, else they'll make cartels. Damn well better not keep white gus around, or they will round you up and fuck you over century after century

[JKDS]

Also, deterrence does fuck all to stop crime. People with terminal illnesses are law abiding. No one attempts murder, then stops to ponder if they'll get 30 years, life, or the chair.

You wanna say all muslims are bad, but you don't have the evidence for it. What you have are singular instances of crimes, just like you do for every other single group of people. The WBC are bad ppl too, doesn't mean Christians are bad. The yakuza are bad too, doesn't mean japanese are bad. The black panthers are bad too. Doesn't mean blacks are bad.

People commit crimes. They do. They do it of all nationalities, races, and religions. Yet you're talking about classifying over a billion people based on the actions of a minute minority.

[MadMojoMonkey]

All I hear you saying is that people who are far away from you, living and dealing with their own cultural pressures which you barely understand, are all bad.

Your argument is so cliche that I don't know how you can even think it, let alone type it, without serious introspection forcing you to question it.

*shrug*

JKDS is so right on this one. Hate the criminal. Don't pretend their neighbors are all criminals, too.

[wufwugy]

Let's execute African Americans then, because bloods crypts. Deport all italians, because of the mafia. Better get rid of mexicans, else they'll make cartels. Damn well better not keep white gus around, or they will round you up and fuck you over century after century

You wanna say all muslims are bad, but you don't have the evidence for it. What you have are singular instances of crimes, just like you do for every other single group of people. The WBC are bad ppl too, doesn't mean Christians are bad. The yakuza are bad too, doesn't mean japanese are bad. The black panthers are bad too. Doesn't mean blacks are bad.

People commit crimes. They do. They do it of all nationalities, races, and religions. Yet you're talking about classifying over a billion people based on the actions of a minute minority.

it sounds like you think i said something different than what i said. and im unclear on what you're responding to.

Also, deterrence does fuck all to stop crime. People with terminal illnesses are law abiding. No one attempts murder, then stops to ponder if they'll get 30 years, life, or the chair.

deterrence is highly effective. the debate about it typically revolves around ideas where other things may or may not be more effective.

[wufwugy]

All I hear you saying is that people who are far away from you, living and dealing with their own cultural pressures which you barely understand, are all bad.

Your argument is so cliche that I don't know how you can even think it, let alone type it, without serious introspection forcing you to question it.

*shrug*

JKDS is so right on this one. Hate the criminal. Don't pretend their neighbors are all criminals, too.

im not sure that you're responding to something i said.

[JKDS]

it sounds like you think i said something different than what i said. and im unclear on what you're responding to.


deterrence is highly effective. the debate about it typically revolves around ideas where other things may or may not be more effective.

You hate them, seems pretty clear.

Also, you don't know dick about deterrence and crime.

[wufwugy]

You hate them, seems pretty clear.

who do i hate? i posted a video of rapists. yeah i hate rapists. ya got me.

how has the fact that i have said negative things about the teaching of negative things made it look like i hate some innocent group of people?

Also, you don't know dick about deterrence and crime.

where are you getting this? for a long time, the established wisdom has been otherwise, and there hasn't been much compelling evidence showing it to be false. deterrence is important, but it's not the only aspect.

[wufwugy]

i have spent months on this board expressing that the muslim people aren't the problem and that i even support open immigration to them, yet the moment i open the door to criticism of a protected doctrine, i suddenly wrongly hate a huge group of people. this makes me feel like sometimes what i say isn't even evaluated in the first place. instead it's a cage match, one side vs the other side.

[rong]

Let's execute African Americans then, because bloods crypts. Deport all italians, because of the mafia. Better get rid of mexicans, else they'll make cartels. Damn well better not keep white gus around, or they will round you up and fuck you over century after century

Straw man. This is confusing a race with religion. Islam is
A belief system not a skin colour or place of origin.

[rong]

Besides which, wuf makes some valid points. I don't believe I or he is a racist. But it seems undeniable that Islam, as a belief system, is at odds with western values of freedom and it seems ridiculous to even state otherwise. It appears to be a sexist religion which oppresses women and holds its own in higher regard that all others. It also would seem that attacking it, ridiculing it or even questioning it in any way is out of bounds, even on this board.

[OngBonga]

But it seems undeniable that Islam, as a belief system, is at odds with western values of freedom and it seems ridiculous to even state otherwise. It appears to be a sexist religion which oppresses women and holds its own in higher regard that all others. It also would seem that attacking it, ridiculing it or even questioning it in any way is out of bounds, even on this board.

The problem is rong that tolerating the hatred that Islam gets is directly responsible for our governments getting the public support to go to war with these people. We, the masses, shoulder responsibility for events in the Middle east, because we lap up what we are spoon fed.

These wars will only stop when the people say enough, and that isn't going to happen while Islamic people are considered bad people just for being Islamic.

[OngBonga]

To put that another way, I feel obliged to defend Islam, because they are being oppressed by the west. To do nothing is to be a part of that oppression.

[rong]

You don't seem to separate the individual with the belief. They are two different things. It's ok to value the two things differently. Just because I may think Islam, as a belief system, is ridiculous, barbaric and oppressive, does not mean I hate Muslims or even value them less than other people. By not separating the two you allow every comment that questions their belief system to be turned into some kind of personal attack which it isn't.

[OngBonga]

I get what you're saying rong and you do indeed have a point.

But this...

Just because I may think Islam, as a belief system, is ridiculous, barbaric and oppressive...

Here's the problem. Why do you think this? You're allowing the view of extremists to cloud your opinion of what Islam is.

If Islamic people were to view Christianity through the lens of the Klu Klux Klan, or the Westboro Baptist Church, they'd think it was ridiculous, barabaric, oppressive.

[rong]

I dot think any of us are capable of defining the exact limits of the religion which is part of the problem. I look at Islamic states and see barbaric punishments at odds with the crime, I see obvious oppression of women and I see people with an obsessive approach to religion. This isn't looking at the extremists, just the average country being run under Islamic law.

[JKDS]

who do i hate? i posted a video of rapists. yeah i hate rapists. ya got me.

how has the fact that i have said negative things about the teaching of negative things made it look like i hate some innocent group of people?

I'm not sure what other conclusion there is to draw when you post a video of 7 ppl do bad things, then condemned everyone who you believe to follow the same system.

The muslims in America don't stone ppl. The muslims in America are typically more educated than other groups (that especially includes their women, something like 90% go to college). The muslims in America marry nonmulims at a rate similar to other cross group marriages.

You got a shit country, plagued by horrible rulers, war, and a holy land dispute, and you'll see the worst of ppl. Even still, the only thing typically reported are bad, outrageous, dangerous things. It's not the age of heroism stories anymore, death is what sells. So it is of no surprise that we get a poor picture of Islam from the media, akin to black shootings. Both sell papers, both paint the wrong picture.

where are you getting this? for a long time, the established wisdom has been otherwise, and there hasn't been much compelling evidence showing it to be false. deterrence is important, but it's not the only aspect.

Where are you? The one thing law school is good at is teaching legal theory and foundation for argumemts. Deterrence sounds cool, but there is almost NO evidence of it actually doing anything.

Ex. Murder rates do not change in response to the death penalty. When states abolish it, you'd expect a rise in murders, there is not. The vast majority of criminals are not actually thinking when they commit a crime, and imagining that scenario is actually a little comical. Joe decides he has been insulted, and plans to smash a beer bottle on Dan's head. He stops and ponders his states legal rules, especially Revised Statute 1.12 dealing with assault. Joe, like all citizens, is of cours well versed in the law and knows the punishment for every crime. Having come to the conclusion that 12 years prison was not worth it, joe plays cards with Dan instead. Had it been 5 years, Dan would be in serious trouble.

That shit don happen

[JKDS]

Another example that's more relateable.

Do you speed? I think you do, most do. What is the fine for speeding? Are you aware of what speed would constitute criminal speeding and land u in jail?

That info is easily found, but few who haven't been cited or jailed know the answer. Yet they speed.

[spoonitnow]

Another example that's more relateable.

Do you speed? I think you do, most do. What is the fine for speeding? Are you aware of what speed would constitute criminal speeding and land u in jail?

That info is easily found, but few who haven't been cited or jailed know the answer. Yet they speed.

[not trolling]

I'm not sure what you're getting at here. Maybe I missed something.

[/not trolling]

[spoonitnow]

The muslims in America don't stone ppl.

Nah they just shoot up centers for disabled kids and talk about how much they support ISIS.

[JKDS]

[not trolling]

I'm not sure what you're getting at here. Maybe I missed something.

[/not trolling]

I'm still on the deterrence and crime topic. If people are deterred, ie performing a risk analysis, then it is presumed that they know what the risk is. They don't though, in fact the law is so complicated right now that many lawyers screw up the punishment for a given crime...because it's usually a range based onany complicated factors.

Speeding demonstrates that point, because most don't know when excessive speed becomes criminal. They can't be deterred when they don't know what not to do, or what the actual risk is.

One argument can be made that people being watched are less likely to do wrong. This is supported by tons of psychological studies, and by personal experience like when a cop is driving next to you. But that just presents an obstacle to someone committing crime, it doesn't stop them.

Nah they just shoot up centers for disabled kids and talk about how much they support ISIS.

Those who do either should be punished and not allowed into the country. On that, we agree.

[JKDS]

There's a hole I want to plug.

Of course a risk analysis also includes the risk of getting caught. You don't commit crimes in front of officers (well, most dont. Ppl b stupid). But that's true regardless of the punishment, if nothing else just because it's a hassle. Where deterrence fails is the rest of the analysis. If people care, there should be fewer of crime x in states with harsher laws against that crime. But this is not the case (no evidence supports it). It would seem then, that beyond the annoyance of dealing with police, no risk analysis takes place at all. The serial killer doesn't travel to a state with lenient murder laws to do his serial killing.

I could go on, but a different topic is rehabilitation. With the exception of medical rehab, it doesn't tend to really do anything either. We don't know how to change someone from criminal into law abiding citizen.

[oskar]

I always assumed that red bull cola was red bull with cola, so I never even tried it because that sounds dumb. Turns out it's delcious. Had like 8 cans since sunday. This is probably not healthy but I'm feeling GREAT!

[JKDS]

Dude, you're gonna die!

[oskar]

[wufwugy]

Deterrence sounds cool, but there is almost NO evidence of it actually doing anything.

Ex. Murder rates do not change in response to the death penalty. When states abolish it, you'd expect a rise in murders, there is not.

I wouldn't, because that's not much of a deterrence in the first place.

We must be talking about different things here. If you have two neighborhoods next to each other, one with a cop and big dog in every house, and the other without. Then you grab a bunch of people and tell them to rob one of the homes, which ones will they choose? The results are affected by deterrence.

Initially I was talking about the broadest idea of deterrence, like how raising your kid to not believe in god has a deterrent effect on him believing in god, just one example.

It's possible that in law deterrence means something different than in conversation or in philosophy. Economics does it all the time. Like if you see an economist say "utility", he doesn't mean "usefulness" but "happiness". It's weird.

[MadMojoMonkey]

If you have two neighborhoods next to each other, one with a cop and big dog in every house, and the other without. Then you grab a bunch of people and tell them to rob one of the homes, which ones will they choose?

They will choose the closest house.

Living in St Louis has taught me that much. One side of a street, expensive houses, manicured lawns, no security. The other side of the street, low-rent, neglected buildings, everyone owns unregistered hand guns, police patrol constantly. Guess where all the crime is taking place? Not on the expensive side of the street, even though it's only a 2 minute walk away.

The results are affected by deterrence.

But the deterrent is personal laziness and short-sighted opportunism. It is not a deep, thorough review of laws and consequences.

[wufwugy]

They will choose the closest house.

Living in St Louis has taught me that much. One side of a street, expensive houses, manicured lawns, no security. The other side of the street, low-rent, neglected buildings, everyone owns unregistered hand guns, police patrol constantly. Guess where all the crime is taking place? Not on the expensive side of the street, even though it's only a 2 minute walk away.

I have just as many n=1 counters to this. The situation you describe has all sorts of other incentives working for why it's crime alley.

But the deterrent is personal laziness and short-sighted opportunism. It is not a deep, thorough review of laws and consequences.

Yeah that helps my point that the death penalty never was a deterrent. Incentives work typically when they're simple and obvious. It's like how shooters typically choose gun-free zones instead of conceal-carry-galore zones. They have an obvious enough incentive to do so.

[spoonitnow]

I have just as many n=1 counters to this. The situation you describe has all sorts of other incentives working for why it's crime alley.



Yeah that helps my point that the death penalty never was a deterrent. Incentives work typically when they're simple and obvious. It's like how shooters typically choose gun-free zones instead of conceal-carry-galore zones. They have an obvious enough incentive to do so.

Just to add a random tidbit to this in case anyone doesn't know, the death penalty costs more in taxes in the United States than to keep an inmate for life.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I have just as many n=1 counters to this. The situation you describe has all sorts of other incentives working for why it's crime alley.

What is an n=1 counter?

Do go on about the other incentives at work. I have no clue why people wouldn't walk a dozen extra steps and steal something of higher value and from someone who is insured and doesn't give a shit about vigilante justice.

[wufwugy]

What is an n=1 counter?

Do go on about the other incentives at work. I have no clue why people wouldn't walk a dozen extra steps and steal something of higher value and from someone who is insured and doesn't give a shit about vigilante justice.

n is sample size. the sample of me has scenarios where the crime is more mobile than what you listed.

what you described is pretty much the hood, where the crime doesn't often leave the hood because it isn't often about "i want a nice thing so i will take a nice thing". it includes rivalries and familiarities. it also includes a sort of equilibrium with the cops, where the cops only do so much as long as the crime doesn't migrate to other places.

regardless the scenario you described is different than the one i described. in mine it isn't easier to go to the homes with defenders than the homes without. in my scenario, to say that the crime would be taken on the homes with defenders is saying that all things being equal, defenders or a lack thereof have no effect on the perceptions of a potential criminals. this is simply not true. if there are two pools side by side and you want to go swimming and one has a giant shark in it and the other doesn't, are you just as equally likely to jump into the one with the shark? of course you're not.

[JKDS]

I mean, yeah. But you're also presumimng that burglers stake out homes, are competent in doing so, and that the signs would be readily identifiable.

The rational man, given a choice like your examples, picks how you'd expect. But then you have ppl picking wrongly all the time for the challenge, glory, or sport of it. Popular activities in Arizona include jumping off a tall cliff into a lake. Risk of death attaches there, but ppl don't give a fuck...even though it's not rational. Compounded is the fact that most criminals arnt very bright.

I get what you're saying though. Ppl try to make +ev decisions. But things meant to deter often dont, and its bizare.

[wufwugy]

Even so, the question then isn't "do deterrents work?" but "what is an effective deterrent and to what degree is it effective?".

[spoonitnow]

I propose we change the name of this thread to the circlejerk thread.

[rong]

In the UK if you go 30mph over the limit it's an automatic ban. On the motorways where the limit is 70 meh, lots of people cruise along at approx 95mph (ito pretty much what the fast lane is for) but very few go over 100.

[a500lbgorilla]

Just to add a random tidbit to this in case anyone doesn't know, the death penalty costs more in taxes in the United States than to keep an inmate for life.

How do you figure that?

edit it's tough to find stable numbers for this, but I have a sense that this is correct. It costs more to prosecute death penalty cases, it costs more to house them, and the difference in time spent in jail between lifers and death penalty cases is not that big.

[JKDS]

It don't coat 90k a month to house someone. Maybe that's total prison cost, but it's not per individual which matters here.

Also, I feel it costs much more to prosecute death. They get many more appeals, and could end up running through a gauntlet of courts. That's something lifers typically don't get because it isn't considered as important.

Also, a large number of deadees are indigent. They get appointed counsel (2 of them) to run the guantlet and file motions etc.

[JKDS]

I assume costs to pay the judges, clerks, bailiffs, etc was already factored in too

[a500lbgorilla]

Yeah, you're right. It's 90k more per year than gen pop. I misread the quick google searching I did.

[spoonitnow]

A friend was asking me for advice on his relationship and general position in life last night, and something he said really bothered me to the point that I felt like sharing this. He had just talked about how much he liked this girl, who he's been with for years, and how he wanted to maintain their relationship as best he could. What bothered me so much was that he basically immediately almost apologized with something like, "Now that I put that out there, it seems super beta."

Having a girl mean a lot to you isn't inherently beta, and neither is wanting to cultivate and maintain a relationship with her. It's the context and the way that you go about it that decides the "alpha or beta" descriptor. It really bothers me because the terms have been hijacked to mean 500 things other than what they were originally used for, which was a very useful tool to decide if you were exhibiting healthy behavior or not.

Moreover, beta behavior isn't inherently bad, just like alpha behavior isn't inherently good. Alpha is doing something from a position of leadership or from a position of strength. Beta is doing something from a position of following or a position of weakness. There are times and places to do both.

I guess this is how first-wave feminists feel about the bullshit that passes for feminism these days.

[wufwugy]

people tend to think in terms of events instead of concepts. he's also confusing inputs with outputs.

[spoonitnow]

Sources:

BBC - http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35241818
The Guardian - http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...length-germany
NYT - http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/06/wo...many-says.html

BERLIN — The tensions simmering beneath Germany’s willingness to take in one million migrants blew into the open on Tuesday after reports that scores of young women in Cologne had been groped and robbed on New Year’s Eve by gangs of men described by the authorities as having “a North African or Arabic” appearance.

Taking advantage of the New Year’s Eve street party, hundreds of young men broke into groups and formed rings around young women, refusing to let them escape, the authorities said. Some groped victims while others stole wallets or cellphones.

Cologne’s mayor has been widely criticised for suggesting that women “keep at an arm’s length” from strangers to avoid sexual harassment, after scores of women were sexually abused and mugged in the city during new year celebrations.

One man described how his partner and 15-year-old daughter were surrounded by a crowd outside the station and he was unable to help.

"The attackers grabbed her and my partner's breasts and groped them between their legs."

Another woman was robbed of her mobile phone at the station entrance after midnight and went to police to report it. "There were lots of girls, all crying uncontrollably."

A British woman visiting Cologne said fireworks had been thrown at her group by men who spoke neither German nor English. "They were trying to hug us, kiss us. One man stole my friend's bag," she told the BBC.

"Another tried to get us into his 'private taxi'. I've been in scary and even life-threatening situations and I've never experienced anything like that."

LOL LET'S JUST KEEP LETTING THEM IN WITHOUT VETTING THEM

[OngBonga]

I wondered how long it would take you to pick that story up spoon.

The police did nothing. They waited to act. This is their fault.

The problem here is that the Germans were not ensuring law and order, and as such these people realised they could get away with it. I don't know what the fuck is going on over there, but this kind of shit is not difficult to police. Once you get multiple reports, you put police out there in large numbers to deter further crime. And the idea that they "didn't have the resources" is stupid. It's New Year's Eve. All police leave is cancelled here in the UK on NYE, nearly every officer is at work. I don't imagine it's any different there.

Something doesn't add up here. The police allowed this to escalate. The question is... why?

This is what happens when police don't do their job.

[spoonitnow]

I wondered how long it would take you to pick that story up spoon.

The police did nothing. They waited to act. This is their fault.

The problem here is that the Germans were not ensuring law and order, and as such these people realised they could get away with it. I don't know what the fuck is going on over there, but this kind of shit is not difficult to police. Once you get multiple reports, you put police out there in large numbers to deter further crime. And the idea that they "didn't have the resources" is stupid. It's New Year's Eve. All police leave is cancelled here in the UK on NYE, nearly every officer is at work. I don't imagine it's any different there.

Something doesn't add up here. The police allowed this to escalate. The question is... why?

This is what happens when police don't do their job.

I would only add to the bold that this is what happens when police and government don't do their job.

A number of pieces of relevant information:

1. People who were originally assigned to patrol the area were pulled for some other bullshit in a different area on a federal level.

2. Cops originally were called, came, and broke things up.

3. The fuckers came back afterwards and started doing the same shit again.

4. Over 90 women have reported being assaulted during this incident.

5. There was at least one policewoman who was the victim of sexual assault in this ordeal.

6. Similar incidents happened in other cities as well:

Bild reported both Hamburg and Stuttgart saw similar attacks - with 118 women across the three cities having now come forward claiming to be victims.

In Hamburg, 27 women have so far filed complaints, of which 10 were sex attacks and 17 dealing with the robbery of purses and telephones.

7. There were more robberies reported than assaults, if that tells you anything about the level of bullshit that went on here.

This is what happens when you take in tons of people with no identification or fake identification and let them do whatever they damn well please while you have no means to protect the innocent.

If they don't stop this shit soon, then there's going to be another race war or some Nazi-level shit go down because people are already getting tired of it, and they aren't going to react in anything resembling a moderate way.

[rong]

Ong, during that period where there were no police, how many reports were there of groups of non north African or Arab origin origin surrounding girls and sexually assaulting them?

If it's just a case of people being unpoliced and not a culture issue surely plenty will crop up.

[rong]

I would only add to the bold that this is what happens when police and government don't do their job.

A number of pieces of relevant information:

1. People who were originally assigned to patrol the area were pulled for some other bullshit in a different area on a federal level.

2. Cops originally were called, came, and broke things up.

3. The fuckers came back afterwards and started doing the same shit again.

4. Over 90 women have reported being assaulted during this incident.

5. There was at least one policewoman who was the victim of sexual assault in this ordeal.

6. Similar incidents happened in other cities as well:



7. There were more robberies reported than assaults, if that tells you anything about the level of bullshit that went on here. well sexual assault is a bigger deal than robbery

This is what happens when you take in tons of people with no identification or fake identification and let them do whatever they damn well please while you have no means to protect the innocent.

If they don't stop this shit soon, then there's going to be another race war or some Nazi-level shit go down because people are already getting tired of it, and they aren't going to react in anything resembling a moderate way.

.

[spoonitnow]

.

No shit sexual assault is a bigger deal than robbery. No one ever implied it wasn't. The point is that a lot more crime was going on other than the assaults and on a huge scale.

But you know, we'll probably get some Asperger's having moron come in and post novellas about how it probably had nothing to do with the things it obviously has to do with.

[OngBonga]

I would only add to the bold that this is what happens when police and government don't do their job.

Yeah, agreed.

I'm not intending to suggest this isn't a cultural problem, because it clearly is. However, to allow this to happen is unacceptable. It's not as simple as blaming the immigrants. Their culture is so different to ours that we should EXPECT this to happen, at least while new arrivals are being integrated. This is why a responsible programme is necessary. Screening of immigrants, responsible distribution, and a heavy police presence where there are likely to be problems.

Your point #1, that police were pulled out of the area, just has me thinking that this was design. What better way to stem the flow of immigrants than to get the public against them? What better way to get the public against immigrants than to have dozens of women assaulted?

For well over a decade, probably longer, the powers that be, that's us, you lot, even the Muzz, have been trying their best to drive a huge wedge between our cultures. And they are succeeding. It's us vs them, and don't you forget it.

I guess the whole point is public support for their wars. If you hate the Muzz because they're all crazy murderous fuckers who want to rape our women, then you're not going to have a problem with us bombing the shit out of their towns and moving our companies in to control the oil and rebuilding.

The problem here is not immigrants. It's government policy, and the type of immigrants we're allowing in. You probably don't agree with most of what I say, but I think we're at least in agreement here.

[OngBonga]

Also, I don't have assburgers.

[spoonitnow]

Yeah, agreed.

I'm not intending to suggest this isn't a cultural problem, because it clearly is. However, to allow this to happen is unacceptable. It's not as simple as blaming the immigrants. Their culture is so different to ours that we should EXPECT this to happen, at least while new arrivals are being integrated. This is why a responsible programme is necessary. Screening of immigrants, responsible distribution, and a heavy police presence where there are likely to be problems.

You're hitting the crux of the problem here. This idea of "integration" isn't going to happen. It's trying to take people from one culture and change them so that they behave as if they're from a completely different culture. This is why multiculturalism doesn't work in the long run. It goes back to being a single culture one way or another.

Your point #1, that police were pulled out of the area, just has me thinking that this was design. What better way to stem the flow of immigrants than to get the public against them? What better way to get the public against immigrants than to have dozens of women assaulted?

There have been thousands of women assaulted before this. This isn't a new thing. The police and the media have been active in covering up a lot of the crime in both the UK and other European countries like Germany and Sweden where there have been tons of "refugees." They've even catching hell over this particular incident for not reporting on it as openly as they should have initially, just like they have over tons of similar incidents in the past couple of years.

For well over a decade, probably longer, the powers that be, that's us, you lot, even the Muzz, have been trying their best to drive a huge wedge between our cultures. And they are succeeding. It's us vs them, and don't you forget it.

I guess the whole point is public support for their wars. If you hate the Muzz because they're all crazy murderous fuckers who want to rape our women, then you're not going to have a problem with us bombing the shit out of their towns and moving our companies in to control the oil and rebuilding.

The problem here is not immigrants. It's government policy, and the type of immigrants we're allowing in. You probably don't agree with most of what I say, but I think we're at least in agreement here.

They don't have to drive a wedge between the cultures. Having them in close proximity to each other is sufficient. All they have to do is let things play out naturally from there.

As far as the problem not being the immigrants themselves, yes and no. It's a problem in that they're the ones doing the shit that's causing problems, but they're not the problem in the sense that they're doing this in response to the clash of cultures. You have one group whose culture tells them it's acceptable to sexually assault women who are unattended in public and whatever, and then you have the other group whose culture tells them it's acceptable for women to go unattended in public without expecting to get sexually assaulted.

The government policy of letting in immigrants who have such a drastically different culture is the core of the problem as far as this particular event goes. On a larger more general scale, you could look at what drives the incentives for them to want to come here as well.

As far as police doing their jobs go, they are completely and totally overwhelmed and unprepared. The government has simply let in too many people at one time with a drastically different culture, largely because it's driven by women who act on their feelings instead of logic, and now their infrastructure can't handle it. Police are just one example of this.

Also, I don't have assburgers.

That wasn't about you.

[spoonitnow]

This is fun stuff: http://www.salon.com/2016/01/06/pret..._but_not_mens/

[MadMojoMonkey]

This is fun stuff: http://www.salon.com/2016/01/06/pret..._but_not_mens/

I'd be shocked if I'm not guilty of this.

I have noticed myself leaning this way on multiple occasions. It's one of the reasons that I try to go through my grades a second time and look to see if I've graded similar mistakes in the same way. The other reasons are stuff like my attention span or blood sugar levels fluctuating while I'm doing the grading, but that's not the whole story, and I know it.

But then again, all of my students are the best-looking students, so it's kind of a wash.

[JKDS]

Im always skeptical of studies like this. How do you show a grade was due to attractiveness over intellect?

I like their answer to that question by using standardized tests, where no one observes your looks. The sample size is good too.

I mean, it's still not bullet proof, but I'm satisfied

[spoonitnow]

It's also been shown that girls get better grades than boys for the same quality of work.

http://www.bbc.com/news/education-31751667

[rong]

So odds of hitting then jackpot on the UK lottery are approx 1 in 13m. After several rollovers tomorrow's jackpot is 50 mil.

So surely I should spend every penny I have and use every bit of credit I can access and buy maybe £30k of lottery tickets, right?

[NightGizmo]

The Powerball over here in the States is up to $800m ($496m if you take the lump sum payout, which is about $276m after taxes in my state). And chances of winning that amount are 1 in 292.2m.

I was thinking about buying some tickets, until I found out that tickets cost $2 each. wtf, when did lottery tickets stop costing $1?

[The Bean Counter]

So odds of hitting then jackpot on the UK lottery are approx 1 in 13m. After several rollovers tomorrow's jackpot is 50 mil.

So surely I should spend every penny I have and use every bit of credit I can access and buy maybe £30k of lottery tickets, right?

Odds went out to about 45m-1 after an extra ten balls were added recently, so the jackpot is still some way short of a fair bet at £2 per ticket (and assuming no chop). I'll still take a punt for a couple of quid though.

[rong]

£2 a ticket? 10 extra balls? Wtf!

[OngBonga]

£2 a ticket? 10 extra balls? Wtf!

Look who hasn't played the lottery in ages.

It's idiot tax, leave it well alone. 45 fucking million to one. I'd rather spend my two quid on eggs.

[spoonitnow]

Look who hasn't played the lottery in ages.

It's idiot tax, leave it well alone. 45 fucking million to one. I'd rather spend my two quid on eggs.

But someone's got to win!

lololol

[OngBonga]

But someone's got to win!

lololol

I've got a much better chance of getting food poisoning from my eggs and suing Tesco.