*** Official Putin Started Shootin' Thread ***

[Poopadoop]

roadtrip.

lolz

[Poopadoop]

This Wagner group are apparently 50k strong, which isn't huge by state standards. It's a very large private army but miniscule compared to Russia's.

It's a big problem if it suddenly turns up in your rear though.

Russia can't just pull 100k out of the front lines to deal with some rogue dude, unless they want Ukrainian troops in Moscow too. Even if it has reserves, chances are they're spread around the country and it's going to be very hard to concentrate them, especially in three days. Reserves in central Asia and Siberia are out of the equation, it's basically whoever is sitting around the Moscow area and is kitted up with ammo and fuel, etc..

[Poopadoop]

I'm always deeply suspicious of Russia (and the West) when big news events on this kind play out. But I'm really struggling to see how this in any way benefits Putin. So I can't see how it's orchestrated with his approval. This doesn't feel like a false flag.

If it was orchestrated by anyone it was the West. CIA has some deep pockets. It's possible Putin just outbid them.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I mean... Russia doesn't really have air superiority in Ukraine. Presumably they do over their own land.

If it came to a firefight between Wagner and the Russian Air Force, I'm confident the AF would win handily. Taking out a low-flying, up-close aircraft like a helicopter is 1 thing. Taking out a high altitude bomber that doesn't need to be within many miles of you to hit you is a different story altogether.


Re Prigozhyn is alive... sure... but for how long? Putin's political rivals have a habit of falling out of windows or drinking the wrong tea... sometimes months after they thought they were beyond his reach.

Re Putin looks bad... yah. Even though Wagner was directed at the MoD and not necessarily Moscow proper, it's a challenge to Putin's ability to control Russians. Russian leaderships tends to revolve around at least the plausible appearance of being run with an iron fist.

[CoccoBill]

I'm always deeply suspicious of Russia (and the West) when big news events on this kind play out. But I'm really struggling to see how this in any way benefits Putin. So I can't see how it's orchestrated with his approval. This doesn't feel like a false flag.

Not orchestrated by Putin, but the siloviks or whoever is planning to oust him. All of this made Putin look weak, and certainly didn't benefit him in any way I can see. Seems like no one is happy with Putin anymore, everybody either wants a peaceful resolution to the war or an all out mobilization.

[oskar]

Probably only "orchestrated" in the sense that it went down almost exactly as planned. The Wagner Group was about to lose some autonomy to the Defense Ministry (I don't know any details) and Prigozhin was not having it, so he did a little Russian Ballet around Moscow in a show of force and then fucked off to Belarus. Putin clearly can't be happy about it and Prigozhin may well suffer a tragic window related accident shortly.
He was clearly unhappy being involved with the Ukraine war and would have much rather spent his days wearing jorts around Africa while doing a little war crimes and sipping mojitos.

[oskar]

This has to be a huge deal, and I can't imagine this being the end of it. This is like if Blackwater marched on Washington. This is real bad.

[Poopadoop]

wearing jorts

I love wearing jorts!

[Poopadoop]

Holy shit that's actually a word. I thought it was Oskar speaking Germglish. Sorry Oskar I underestimated you.

[Poopadoop]

If it came to a firefight between Wagner and the Russian Air Force, I'm confident the AF would win handily.

Dunno. If the RAF could neutralise 50k troops in three days I think they would have beat Ukraine by now. They're not 'Murica, you know.

[OngBonga]

Re Prigozhyn is alive... sure... but for how long? Putin's political rivals have a habit of falling out of windows or drinking the wrong tea... sometimes months after they thought they were beyond his reach.

Most of Putin's political rivals don't have a private army the size of a small city. But your point about air superiority is right on the money. I was going to make the same point in response to poop's post but you beat me to it.

And while I can understand why isolated border cities can be easily seized without a timely response from Russia, here we're talking about panic in the capital. You would think Moscow is the hardest city in Russia to seize, that Putin would hold back enough reserves to at least protect his capital. But he instead told people not to go to work and maybe even fled to St Petersburg, something he denied doing but his plane was apparently tracked making the journey.

Don't get me wrong, if Putin gets the chance to defenestrate Prigozhyn it'll happen, but that might be a little more challenging than some random rich guy with a team of bodyguards.

Russian leaderships tends to revolve around at least the plausible appearance of being run with an iron fist.

This is an important point too. It's exposed Russia's iron fist as all bark and no bite. It's hard for him to explain to the Russian population how he didn't at least try to eliminate this mercenary group as they apparently advanced.

Prigozhyn has since claimed he wasn't marching on Moscow, but this seems like an obvious PR move to ease the pressure on Putin, possibly part of any deal that might or might not have happened.

It's such a strange story. It wouldn't surprise me if we were talking about some failed country where the government have no proper control, but this is Russia, supposedly a global superpower to challenge USA. Can you imagine this happening in USA? What do you suppose happens to a private army marching on Washington? They're not going to successfully flee to Mexico, on that I would bet real money on.

[OngBonga]

I would have thought that Ukraine's army is a great deal more powerful than Wagner, even without Western weapons.

So what happens if Ukraine abandons the front line and deploys nearly all of its troops on a march to Moscow? Are Russia going to keep their troops in Ukraine while the capital comes under attack? Most certainly not.

Russia looks weaker now that it has since the Soviet Union collapsed.

[OngBonga]

Not orchestrated by Putin, but the siloviks or whoever is planning to oust him.

Well I guess it's inevitable there are multiple internal forces working against Putin here.

If their plan was to simply make Putin look weak without actually initiating a full blown revolution, it's working, but it seems like a risky plan. They must have been certain that Putin was unable to respond properly in a timely manner.

[OngBonga]

Dunno. If the RAF could neutralise 50k troops in three days I think they would have beat Ukraine by now. They're not 'Murica, you know.

If an army is making a predictable journey by land then it's surely very easy for a competent air force to eliminate them, no matter how many troops we're talking about. It's like stamping on ants.

[OngBonga]

Also poop, as mojo points out, they have air superiority in Russian territory. Not so much in Ukraine where they face entrenched air defences and western anti-aircraft weapons.

I don't doubt Wagner are tooled up and can take out aircraft, but surely Russia can completely overwhelm them for relatively few losses.

[Poopadoop]

If an army is making a predictable journey by land then it's surely very easy for a competent air force to eliminate them, no matter how many troops we're talking about. It's like stamping on ants.

It managed to get from Rostov to Voronezh barely touched by the RAF.

[Poopadoop]

So what happens if Ukraine abandons the front line and deploys nearly all of its troops on a march to Moscow?

Yeah, that's not really a practical plan. For one, the Russians are already between them and Moscow. For another, if Ukraine give up their whole country to take Moscow, where are they going to get their supplies from? That would end the war quickly alright, just not in the way you imagine.

[OngBonga]

It managed to get from Rostov to Voronezh barely touched by the RAF.

Well then the RAF didn't try.

[OngBonga]

Yeah, that's not really a practical plan. For one, the Russians are already between them and Moscow. For another, if Ukraine give up their whole country to take Moscow, where are they going to get their supplies from? That would end the war quickly alright, just not in the way you imagine.

Well yeah obviously if you deploy literally all of your resources to such a mission then it's stupid, but it could reasonably become a military objective to deploy a large invading force, if a private army of 25k can cause soiled trousers in the Kremlin.

They will at least be having conversations of this nature in Ukrainian war rooms.

[OngBonga]

They shot down 6 helicopters and a plane while advancing towards Moscow. They seized a city and several towns. And they're being allowed to flee to Belarus, or even join the Russian armed forces, while Wagner hand over heavy weapons and officially disband.

This is absurd. People go to jail in Russia for speaking out against the war in Ukraine, but march on the capital and shoot down any military aircraft that you see and you can simply leave the country.

This must be the end for Putin. How can anyone fear him now? All it takes is unity. If Russia can't eliminate a private army marching on their capital, then revolution is inevitable.

[OngBonga]

The only reason Wagner are disbanding and abandoning the mutiny is because they're Russian patriots. They are highly incentivised to negotiate, they want to avoid civil war as much as the leadership.

A foreign army has no such incentives.

Russia is a lame duck, from the perspective of any nation who feels their army is superior to Wagner, which is most of the world.

[OngBonga]

The plane they shot down was a command plane. That presumably means the loss of several high ranking officers. This should be unforgivable treason, but Putin is just accepting it as fair game. You wouldn't even spike this fucker's tea, you'd drag him to Moscow and put him to trial where he legally gets sentenced to death. But instead he's free to leave.

Are Wagner really that strong an army that a world superpower is afraid to engage them? Putin must be afraid that Wagner is more popular than he is. That's the only thing that makes sense. He fears that Russian armed forces will disobey and defect, that Russian civilians will support the revolution. No way could this private army do it alone, not if Russia really is a military power worthy of note.

[Poopadoop]

They will at least be having conversations of this nature in Ukrainian war rooms.

Ok, Monty.

Seriously I don't think you understand how war works. Ukraine is having to battle hard just to retake territory they lost last year. They're not in any position for a push on Moscow.

[Poopadoop]

Well then the RAF didn't try.

They didn't try because they don't have the capability to wipe out 50k men in three days by bombing. It just wasn't going to happen.

[OngBonga]

Seriously I don't think you understand how war works.

Ok Colonel.

What I don't understand is how an army of 25K can march on Moscow without being wiped out by the air force.

I understand that it's very difficult to take large swathes of territory back from an occupying force, but it's not nearly so difficult to take out a convoy. That Russian convoy that moved in on Kyiv didn't fare too well.

Russia were basically impotent.

Maybe it's got more to do with will than means. Wagner are not just fighting for profit, they are actively securing Russian interests in Africa by force while giving the Russian state plausible deniability. By taking out the approaching convoy, they lose control of all their geopolitical interests in Africa. That would explain why Putin didn't act. The price he'd pay wasn't worth it, better to just look weak. If that's true he's showing remarkable restraint for someone we all consider to be a lunatic.

[Poopadoop]

Ok Colonel.

What I don't understand is how an army of 25K can march on Moscow without being wiped out by the air force.

Ukraine's lost about 150k men since the war began. That's over about 500 days, facing the entire RUS army and RUS air force. Works out to about 375 men a day.

So how can RUS destroy a convoy of (I guess it's 25k now, ok whatever) men in 3 days, or about 8000 men a day, using their air force alone, or to be more precise, the parts of it that aren't already busy fighting UA?

The column traveled halfway from Rostov to Moscow and the Russian AF did fuck all. That says about all you need to know about what they're capable of right now. Could they have dragged a few more planes away from the front and attacked the convoy with it as it drove from Voronezh to Moscow? Sure. Could they have made an appreciable dent in it? Unlikely. Very unlikely.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Russian ground troops were ordered to stop Wagner's path, but they simply did not.
They were ordered to fight, but they did not.

Prigozhyn made a public statement about children being sent to stop trained military men, but that he would not order his men to attack children. Which is kinda fucked to hear from Mr. Warcrimes himself, but that was his public statement.

I didn't hear about the plane shot down, but the helicopters reportedly fired on Wagner before Wagner fired back... according to Wagner. Who knows what really happened, though.


The air superiority issue may not be appreciated by poopy. Or maybe by me.
The lack of air superiority in Ukraine means the RAF is hobbled, which in turn has dramatic negative effects on their ground troops' potential.
I'd presume that Wagner doesn't have robust air defenses to stop a sortie of attack planes. But I may be wrong.
Under the assumption, an air force would just stomp a ground force.


*shrug*
Maybe Putin didn't attack Wagner with the AF because the only problem with Wagner is Pirgozhyn. Once Prig. is out of the way, Putin may be expected to get thousands of new recruits to the Russian militaries... and those recruits already trained.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Ukraine's lost about 150k men since the war began. That's over about 500 days, facing the entire RUS army and RUS air force. Works out to about 375 men a day.

I never see stats about Ukrainian losses, only about Russian losses.
According to an infographic from this morning, Russian troop losses are over 225k.

Not that I'd trust any numbers during the conflict, but if Ukraine is killing 3:2, that might still not be enough to sustain against Russia.

The counter-offensive will presumably bring that ratio closer to unity. Military wisdom says the defender has the advantage when they've had months to prepare and fortify their positions.

[Poopadoop]

The air superiority issue may not be appreciated by poopy. Or maybe by me.
The lack of air superiority in Ukraine means the RAF is hobbled, which in turn has dramatic negative effects on their ground troops' potential.
I'd presume that Wagner doesn't have robust air defenses to stop a sortie of attack planes. But I may be wrong.
Under the assumption, an air force would just stomp a ground force.

A powerful air force could seriously damage a ground force, but even it wouldn't wipe out a 25-50k size force in three days. In Iraq War 1, I very clearly recall the Allies having air superiority and precision bombers. They were bombing Iraqi ground forces for a month straight before the tankers even switched on their engines. They also blew up some infrastructure, but a significant part of their mission was to soften up the ground forces. Iraqi losses for the entire conflict were in the tens of thousands, so the math of doing 25k worth of damage in 3 days doesn't really add up.

And I doubt the Russian air force has that kind of strength sitting around waiting for someone to drive down the road to Moscow anyways. There's certainly no evidence they do, and what evidence that does exist strongly suggests they don't.

But let's imagine they did, and were just saving it for a surprise strike. The idea the Wagner Group would just be sitting ducks doesn't make sense either. Modern ground forces nowadays have surface-to-air missile capability as well as anti-air flak guns. They certainly did ok against those helicopters. And planes flying at a high altitude is not a guarantee that they can't be shot down. SAMs can hit planes at 30k feet easily.

[OngBonga]

(I guess it's 25k now, ok whatever)

Last figure I saw was 25k but I've seen 50k too, whatever is right.

So how can RUS destroy a convoy...

Locate it and strafe it. You at least stop it. You might not kill every last man but you slow down the advance considerably. That's assuming it's actually a convoy rather than covert troops sneaking around in civilian vehicles. But, considering they are capable of shooting down aircraft, I'm assuming it's a fairly overt advance; that is, the Russians shouldn't have a problem identifying them.

You're taking the figures that Russia can kill with planes on on open battlefield spanning hundreds of miles and using that as a baseline to estimate how many cars an air raid can take out.

The column traveled halfway from Rostov to Moscow and the Russian AF did fuck all. That says about all you need to know about what they're capable of right now.

It says Russia were unable to deploy the air force, for whatever reason, not that the air force was incapable of dealing with the threat.

Any competent air force can deal with a ground based convoy. It's like you don't understand how dominant an air force is over ground troops in the modern age. Big fucking bombs. The moor tooled up the ground force, the higher your planes go. Easy game.

Putin lacked the will to act with decisive force. He surely didn't lack the means. If he did, Russia are in big, big trouble.

[Poopadoop]

Not that I'd trust any numbers during the conflict, but if Ukraine is killing 3:2, that might still not be enough to sustain against Russia.

This is the worrying thing to me. Russia's history of how they war is that they field an army of moderate competence, are very wasteful of lives, but wear down their enemy with their nearly bottomless manpower.

In WWII for example, the German army was extremely competent (at least at a tactical level, they did have an amateur making up their strategy) and caused between 2-3x as many Russian casaulties as they suffered. But they couldn't sustain those losses whereas the Russians could. See you in Berlin.

[OngBonga]

I'd presume that Wagner doesn't have robust air defenses to stop a sortie of attack planes.

You'd have to be moving some serious military hardware, and a lot of it, to threaten Russia's air force on Russian territory. I just can't see it.

Putin basically bottled it. Probably with good reason.

[Poopadoop]

how many cars an air raid can take out.

Oh this changes everything. I thought they had tanks and other modern weapons. If they were driving up to Moscow in cars, sure yeah 50k casualties is reasonable.

[Poopadoop]

There's plenty of examples in history of a powerful air force attacking enemy ground forces with zero or negligible opposition from the enemy AF. The entire Western Front of WWII from 1944 onwards, Iraq1 and 2, Vietnam, Afganistan. In none of those did they deliver the kinds of casualty rates you guys are presuming Russia could deliver.

[OngBonga]

Oh this changes everything. I thought they had tanks and other modern weapons. If they were driving up to Moscow in cars, sure yeah 50k casualties is reasonable.

Maybe if they're making these tanks out of the same stuff they made the 9/11 terrorists' passports out of then they might have a chance of not being completely fucked by an air raid.

There's plenty of examples in history...

So not only are you attempting to use figures from open battlefields with questionable air supremacy to estimate the damage an air raid on a convoy could do where you have total air supremacy, you're also going to compare WWII aircraft with modern anti tank aircraft.

In none of those did they deliver the kinds of casualty rates you guys are presuming Russia could deliver.

None of these were on home soil for the air force in question, either. And none of them were using 2023 technology.

The Russians could be using Soviet-era planes and still have a massive advantage just by using modern bombs and homing systems. I appreciate tanks are also better now than they were in the 1940s, but I'm not sure they're keeping up with the increasing power of bombs, and increasing accuracy from greater altitude.

Maybe I'm wrong and a large convoy of tanks and military trucks under private command is more than capable of being bombed by one of the most feared air forces in the world (one that has kept the Syrian president in power despite Western efforts) without suffering catastrophic losses.

[OngBonga]

The maximum casualty rate of an air raid on ground troops is basically the same as however many people you can cram into a given area.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I'm kinda confused why Russia can't establish air superiority over Ukraine when Russia has 5th generation fighter planes.
I thought those were basically invisible to radar and can hit targets from behind the horizon.

[Poopadoop]

...

So basically your argument is "It's never happened before in history but it could now. And it didn't happen while they were cruising down the Rostov-Voronezh highway for 400 miles, but it could have. And it also could have happened if they drove the other 400 miles from Voronezh to Moscow."

Ok then, I guess I can't argue with that logic.

[Poopadoop]

I'm kinda confused why Russia can't establish air superiority over Ukraine when Russia has 5th generation fighter planes.
I thought those were basically invisible to radar and can hit targets from behind the horizon.

Massive corruption means their Army and AF are also corrupted. Money that's supposed to go to supplying spare parts for tanks and planes, fuel, ammo, etc., instead goes into some oligarch's secret bank account. Remember those tanks running out of fuel at the beginning of the war?

Also, UA has basically got the entire West supplying it with whatever it needs. Still, that took time to put in place. On paper at least, if Russia had its shit together when they first attacked, it could have walked over Ukraine.

[MadMojoMonkey]

If not for Putin's apparent loss of face in the public over this, I could entertain a tin foil hat theory that putting one of the world's more ruthless mercenary leaders in Belarus under a false pretense of punishment or exile isn't a terrible psyop to pull off.

But I don't think any intelligence agencies are taking their eyes off of Prigozhyn, so maybe it would be terrible.

[Poopadoop]

Oh.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/mil...sia-air-force/

[CoccoBill]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/...nes-91-borders

Seems like China is finally officially picking a side.

[OngBonga]

It's never happened before in history but it could now.

What, an air force fucking up a convoy hasn't happened before?

Do you even remember that convoy that descended onto Kyiv? The one that didn't get very far before the Ukrainian air force decided to strafe it relentlessly?

There's probably a good reason why it doesn't happen often. There aren't many people stupid enough to try it in a territory where the enemy has total air supremacy and a large air force. It's the same reason why not many people have their head run over by a train. Russia tried it in Ukraine because they underestimated the Ukrainian air force and overestimated their logistical expertise. The result was one of the largest military convoys in history being rendered utterly impotent. The images were widely distributed around the world.

btw, the tanks in Wagner's convoy aren't rolling along in operational mode with turret pointing ready to fire, they're on the back of pickups. You don't even need anti-tank aircraft.

idk even why you're arguing with me about this. You seem to be arguing that one of the most feared air forces in the world is going to have a hard time taking out a convoy on its own territory. The basis of this view seems to be 1) Russia didn't eliminate them, and 2) Russia didn't take out everyone with one air raid on an open battlefield in Ukraine. Oh and 3) the something about the RAF.

[OngBonga]

There's more to this story. My friend thinks that Wagner basically took $6.2b off USA to "overthrow" Putin and then staged a failed coup. I don't buy it, seems like small change to me in the context of high stakes geopolitics. But there's more to this than what we currently know.

[OngBonga]

Oh.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/mil...sia-air-force/

The conclusion from this is pretty much one of two things...

1) it's all smoke and mirrors,
2) the Russian air force is nowhere near as competent as we assumed.

This report you link suggests it was a convoy of 100 trucks, nice to finally get a number of vehicles instead of random numbers talking about men. Such a convoy should hardly be feared by a global superpower on their own territory.

To say the Russian air force is incapable of taking out this convoy is to say they are a shit air force.

[OngBonga]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/...nes-91-borders

Seems like China is finally officially picking a side.

I had to laugh at "We respect the territorial integrity of all countries."

Presumably by "territory" he doesn't include sea.

[Poopadoop]

What, an air force fucking up a convoy hasn't happened before?

Do you even remember that convoy that descended onto Kyiv? The one that didn't get very far before the Ukrainian air force decided to strafe it relentlessly?

For someone who doesn't believe in references to history, you're bringing up history. Well, more like making up history. There's lot of reasons that convoy stopped - lack of fuel and other supplies, weather, etc.. It wasn't because they were wiped out by the Ukrainian AF lol.

btw, the tanks in Wagner's convoy aren't rolling along in operational mode with turret pointing ready to fire, they're on the back of pickups. You don't even need anti-tank aircraft.

And yet more aircraft were shot down by the Wagner group than vehicles were destroyed by aircraft. Funny that.

idk even why you're arguing with me about this.

Ikr? It's just seal clubbing at this point.

You seem to be arguing that one of the most feared air forces in the world

The one that lost more planes than it destroyed vehicles? That air force? The one that couldn't even hit a road with their bombs?

1) Russia didn't eliminate them,

They not only didn't eliminate them, they lost a bunch of aircraft trying to attack them.

2) Russia didn't take out everyone with one air raid on an open battlefield in Ukraine.

Reductio ad bananum. I never argued that.

3) the something about the RAF.

RAF in this context = Russian Air Force. Sorry if that confused you.

[Poopadoop]

The conclusion from this is pretty much one of two things...

2) the Russian air force is nowhere near as competent as I assumed.

fyp

When you lose a bunch of multimillion dollar aircraft attacking 100 trucks, you're definitely not a competent air force.

[Poopadoop]

Next you're going to argue that Russia deliberately threw away a bunch of aircraft to lull Ukraine into a false sense of security. Then Ukraine will advance its army deep into Russian territory and Putin will Stalingrad them.

[Poopadoop]

Oh and where was the vaunted Russian Air Force when Ukraine was allegedly having a field day strafingthat convoy? Your arguments don't even agree with each other.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Oh.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/mil...sia-air-force/

Great read. Fills in a lot of open questions we had in this thread with data from on location.

Like... why were Wagner so effective at taking out Russian helicopters?
The helicopters had to get closer than they do in Ukraine to distinguish civilians from Wagner troops.

Why was Wagner able to take out a plane?
It was too close and had too little armor for the situation, not sure why it was so close, though.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I had to laugh at "We respect the territorial integrity of all countries."

Presumably by "territory" he doesn't include sea.

... and Taiwan isn't recognized as a country by China.

[OngBonga]

And yet more aircraft were shot down by the Wagner group than vehicles were destroyed by aircraft. Funny that.

Yup. This is definitely worthy of note.

You seem to conclude from this that it is therefore easy for a land based convoy to evade an elite air force.

I conclude that Putin was unable or unwilling to properly deploy the air force. If he was able to, this convoy would be history.

[OngBonga]

RAF in this context = Russian Air Force. Sorry if that confused you.

It actually did. You were blabbering about WWII around the same time.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Wagner using civilian highways to convoy put the Russian AF in a more difficult spot.

If they just fired on every vehicle in the convoy, they'd be targeting Russian civilians.
That forced the 'copters into closer range so they could identify civilians from targets.
Turns out when you're not committing war crimes, you expose yourself to more risk. Who would've guessed?


The high effectiveness of Wagner during this event was (at least in part of not wholly) due to these factors. Wagner could very easily identify their targets, but their targets could not very easily identify them.


Nothing about this story says that the Russian AF couldn't easily wipe out a convoy if they chose to do so. They chose not to in order to avoid a PR disaster over indiscriminately killing their own innocent bystanders.


Y'all have both made good points. There is surely a middle ground where you can agree with each other's better points.

[OngBonga]

... and Taiwan isn't recognized as a country by China.

It's really not that simple. Taiwan claims sovereignty over all of China just like China claims sovereignty over Taiwan. The Taiwanese government consider themselves the Chinese government in exile. They both wish to reunify China and Taiwan. They both agree that Taiwan is Chinese, they just disagree about who the legal government of China should be.

[OngBonga]

Wagner using civilian highways to convoy put the Russian AF in a more difficult spot.


If they just fired on every vehicle in the convoy, they'd be targeting Russian civilians.

If the threat to the capital is real, then this is collateral damage. A few dead civilians on the roads is a preferable outcome to lots of dead civilians in the capital.

Of course it is a factor that the Kremlin has to consider, but ultimately if they think the approaching force is capable of causing serious turmoil in the city, then their hand should be forced.

[OngBonga]

There is common ground between myself and poop, it's just we both naturally default to an argumentative tone with each other.

I'm surprised that the Russian air force was impotent, and find it hard to believe they weren't technically capable of eliminating the threat with ease. Poop just seems to think they weren't capable. That might be true if their resources are fully committed to Ukraine, but it would be crazy for Putin to leave Russia so vulnerable to internal threats, especially since he is aware of the existence of this Russian mercenary group, and is surely aware of their military capabilities.

Where we disagree is in the assumption that the Russian air force is competent. Last time they were in action before Ukraine was Syria, and they showed themselves to be exceptionally capable. In Ukraine they are up against largely American weapons and defences, so they're not performing as well. But Russia's air force is likely ranked 3rd in the world behind USA and China. They are no mugs, and they are battle hardened.

So I am very surprised that this convoy was allowed to advance with apparent ease, and set their own terms for a tactical retreat.

[Poopadoop]

They don't seem very sophisticated if they have to get close enough to get shot down to identify their targets. I thought they could precision bomb anything from the stratosphere, they were so damn good.

I mean in reality I'm sure if they had enough aircraft and wanted to they could put a serious dent in Wagner. The question is whether they could easily scrape together enough operable planes after a year at war with Ukraine getting their asses shot off, concentrate them, and use them effectively. So far all they've done is send in one or two choppers at a time, get them blown up, then send in another one or two.

Also, a lot of their air force is on paper only. They don't have spare parts or maintenance crews, or fuel, or all the myriad other things the AF needs to work properly. They've got the same problem the army does. That's largely why Russia didn't overrun Ukraine in three days.

[Poopadoop]

Last time they were in action before Ukraine was Syria, and they showed themselves to be exceptionally capable.

Saying they were exceptionally capable because they managed to kill a lot goat herder "terrorists," seems a bit of an exaggeration.

[Poopadoop]

There is common ground between myself and poop, it's just we both naturally default to an argumentative tone with each other.

Which is why every discussion between us ends with Mojo Flanders pleading for us to just get along.

We are getting along. This is how we get along.

[OngBonga]

They don't seem very sophisticated if they have to get close enough to get shot down to identify their targets.

We surely don't disagree that they have the technical capabilities to identify targets from high altitude? There was apparently a command plane shot down. Was that flying too low? It shouldn't be, it doesn't drop bombs, it's a flying HQ. Such a plane should be at very high altitude, and you would have less valuable aircraft at lower altitude for surveillance and attack.

So it's not that they lack the sophisticated technology, rather it's that they were tactically inept. How easy do you find that to believe? That a Russian colonel makes such a basic tactical error while an English shit talking stoner thinks "wtf"? The Russians understand chess, they basically hung their queen.

It doesn't really add up to me.

The question is whether they could easily scrape together enough operable planes after a year at war with Ukraine getting their asses shot off, concentrate them, and use them effectively.

It shouldn't take longer for aircraft to fly from Ukraine to Moscow than for a convoy to drive it. If this threat is real, then they have no choice but to immediately redeploy resources from Ukraine to Moscow. The capital is a great deal more important than Ukraine.

So far all they've done is send in one or two choppers at a time, get them blown up, then send in another one or two.

Which is clearly ineffective and a tactical blunder. Obviously Russia can do more than this. Any banana republic in the world could muster up a greater force than that.

Also, a lot of their air force is on paper only.

Well the ones active in Ukraine certainly are not, and they had time to respond. This convoy was days away from Moscow when we were hearing about it.

Saying they were exceptionally capable because they managed to kill a lot goat herder "terrorists," seems a bit of an exaggeration.

Well maybe, but that was still proxy war between Russia and the West. Not on the scale we're currently seeing, but Russia have succeeded in keeping Assad in power, to this day.

[MadMojoMonkey]

They don't seem very sophisticated if they have to get close enough to get shot down to identify their targets. I thought they could precision bomb anything from the stratosphere, they were so damn good.

They can hit every car on the highway from behind the horizon with pinpoint precision.

I'm not saying it really makes a lot of sense. It makes some sense. It's from the source you linked, not my presumption.

My presumption would be that you can at least easily identify a tank on the back of a flatbed truck and safely assume that's not a civilian vehicle.

[OngBonga]

During the 9/11 attacks, there was that plane that went down not far from the Whitehouse. The official story is that the passengers overwhelmed the terrorists, but back then I was thinking maybe it was shot down and they glossed it over to not cause outrage. Even if that was the case, it was absolutely justified given the context of what was happening that day and I think the public would be able to swallow it.

Same here with Putin, more so with him because he's an iron fist ruler and not subject to democratic pressure.

I just don't see how this convoy was allowed to so publicly advance to Moscow with the whole world watching and Putin negotiates. This is a country where saying "war is bad" on Twitter can get you a jail sentence, where people get folded up in suitcases for badmouthing the leadership.

[Poopadoop]

They can hit every car on the highway from behind the horizon with pinpoint precision.

That plane must have been getting a tune-up that day. In that video from the Popular mechanics link they couldn't even hit the highway, never mind what was on it.

[Poopadoop]

The official story is that the passengers overwhelmed the terrorists, but back then I was thinking maybe it was shot down

It's not impossible, but you would think there'd be some clue in the wreckage, some kind of evidence of an external object hitting the plane. I guess they could have covered that up too.

[OngBonga]

It's not impossible, but you would think there'd be some clue in the wreckage, some kind of evidence of an external object hitting the plane. I guess they could have covered that up too.

Yeah I mean if the Americans shot down that plane and plan to tell a heartwarming story about patriotic American bravery in the face of certain death, they're going to cover their tracks.

It was the early days of the internet back then. There were all sorts of people making claims that couldn't be verified. I recall reading about a bunch of 9/11 firefighters who had apparently gone on record to say they saw evidence of thermite in the wreckage, and heard a series of timed explosions similar to a controlled demolition. These people are either liars, or are assumed to be liars. So even if a witness claimed he saw the plane being shot down, nobody would believe them except those who want to believe them.

[Poopadoop]

Yeah I mean if the Americans shot down that plane and plan to tell a heartwarming story about patriotic American bravery in the face of certain death, they're going to cover their tracks.

Weren't a bunch of passengers calling their loved ones and telling them they were going to go Rambo the cockpit?

As for the crash, normally these are investigated by the National Transportation Safety Board in the US. This one was as well. So they'd have to be in on the coverup, to the point of falsifying data from the flight data recorder, as well as lying about what brought it down. Again, not impossible they could be coerced into doing that by the FBI or whoever, but seems like a pretty big operation.

Either way, those people were going to die, so even if they did shoot it down, it's not that big a deal in a way.

[Poopadoop]

I recall reading about a bunch of 9/11 firefighters who had apparently gone on record to say they saw evidence of thermite in the wreckage, and heard a series of timed explosions similar to a controlled demolition.

Meh. If you're going to be a conspiracy theorist, there's plenty of better ones out there where the evidence is much stronger that the official stories were fiction. Both Kennedys, MLK, etc..

[OngBonga]

Weren't a bunch of passengers calling their loved ones and telling them they were going to go Rambo the cockpit?

Maybe, maybe not. It's pretty easy to fake such calls so it's inconclusive.

Meh. If you're going to be a conspiracy theorist, there's plenty of better ones out there where the evidence is much stronger that the official stories were fiction. Both Kennedys, MLK, etc..

I was simply pointing out that despite what seemingly reliable people have to say, the official story is always the one that is written in the history books. I could swear blind that I witnessed the plane being shot down and most people would just say I'm a liar, even if I was telling the truth. And it's natural for people to think that, because for all you know I could be lying, and it's more likely than not.

There's a fuck ton of conspiracy theories out there. I dabbled around the time of 9/11 but found most to be irrelevant and somewhat boring in the context of what was happening at the time. 9/11 was so much more important and I still to this day do not believe the official story. I can't tell you what the real story is because I haven't a clue, I just don't believe what they tell me.

[MadMojoMonkey]

That plane must have been getting a tune-up that day. In that video from the Popular mechanics link they couldn't even hit the highway, never mind what was on it.

I mean... fair point.

It is available in many sources that Russia has 5th generation fighter planes, the Sukhoi Su-57.
I was basing my assumptions on their use of those.

But they're not (?) using those in Ukraine..? Or apparently against Prig.?

*shrug*
The guessing game of what are the real motivations and capabilities of Russian military forces is impossible.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I mean... the more people required to be in on the conspiracy, the exponentially less likely it is to be a conspiracy.

If you're talking dozens of people... the odds go way down. Dozens within a single agency, maybe, but spread across a wide range? That's too many mouths to stay closed for too many decades. Maybe it could happen. Prob has happened on this scale a few times, but the more people need to keep quiet, the less statistically likely it is to remain secret.

Get into the range of hundreds of conspirators... like the families of the people who died... the security agencies whose job is to not let things like this happen... the building inspectors, the *rest* of the firefighters, the *rest* of the witnesses...

Maybe a few people saw/heard something that was fucking sus to them. That's fine. They totally believe what they saw, and stand by it. That's fine. Doesn't mean the other witnesses and events that would corroborate that story just don't need to exist.

[OngBonga]

If you're talking dozens of people... the odds go way down.

It depends who those people are. If those in on the conspiracy have too much to lose by opening their mouth, they're more likely to keep quiet than, say, a civil servant who stumbled upon the conspiracy. And if you're an all-powerful covert political-military agency, which is what you need for a conspiracy on the scale of 9/11, then disappearing people who know too much can have a knock-on effect where others who also know too much don't want to draw attention to themselves. True fear. And the worst thing that can happen is you grow a pair of massive balls, say "fuck it", tell the world, and nobody believes you, you just become a lunatic fringe conspiracy theorist and eventually they'll get you when everyone has forgotten about you.

If I knew Boris sold cocaine to my mate, I'd probably sell that story to the papers, but if I could literally prove that 9/11 was an inside job, I'd be terrified of the information I possess and would be concerned for my family.

[OngBonga]

I don't think the 9/11 question stays unanswered forever. It was recorded by many different people. AI will be able to tell us if what happened was possible given the information we're told, and if not, it will be able to tell us how it is possible.

Of course, whoever controls the AI might have an agenda, but there surely comes a day where it's not possible for humans to hide their commands to AI. I doubt that day is in my lifetime, but in 100 years I think it will be resolved.

[OngBonga]

btw my reason for not believing the official story has very little to do with witness accounts, which are subjective, possibly deliberately misleading, possibly politically biased, and nearly always subject to shock.

It's the speed at which those buildings fell. There's absolutely no doubt about how long it took, the only debate is whether that's possible due to the reasons given. And it is a debate. It has never been proven one way or the other. Nobody has replicated the events of that day, even scaled down, to satisfy those who have concerns. So it remains unanswered, all we can do is share opinions, some more qualified than others, but opinions nonetheless.