Rudy's on the case!
11-07-2020 05:55 PM
#7726
| |
Rudy's on the case! | |
| |
11-07-2020 07:21 PM
#7727
| |
I don't think we see riots over an election, no matter who wins. | |
| |
11-07-2020 09:24 PM
#7728
| |
I don't want to be the guy to say I called it that Trump would only ever leave the WH kicking and screaming, but yeah I did. About 3 years ago now I think. | |
| |
11-07-2020 09:40 PM
#7729
| |
| |
11-07-2020 09:51 PM
#7730
| |
I'd like to think if the courts decide that there was no fraud, or any fraud that did happen was minor and did not effect the outcome of the election, he will wind his neck in. It's all too easy to point out how literally everyone predicted he'd do this, what matters is if he's right to do this, and frankly I have not the slightest clue. | |
| |
11-07-2020 10:12 PM
#7731
| |
The constitution lays out who is president when. | |
| |
11-08-2020 06:54 AM
#7732
| |
| |
11-08-2020 07:39 AM
#7733
| |
Should point out that Rudy's presser above took place at the Four Seasons in Philly. No, not the hotel, the Four Seasons Lanscaping Company. Located between a porn store and a crematorium. | |
| |
11-08-2020 07:03 PM
#7734
| |
I mean... the mistake on the people booking the gig is one thing. | |
| |
11-08-2020 08:17 PM
#7735
| |
Only the best people. | |
| |
11-09-2020 12:57 PM
#7736
| |
Best things on the internet today. | |
| |
11-09-2020 01:44 PM
#7737
| |
So apparently Trump just lost with the most votes for a sitting President in US history. | |
| |
11-09-2020 01:47 PM
#7738
| |
The market is still open and Trump is currently 16/1. Not bad considering Biden is practically declared winner. | |
| |
11-09-2020 02:28 PM
#7739
| |
| |
| |
11-09-2020 05:04 PM
#7740
| |
| |
| |
11-09-2020 05:07 PM
#7741
| |
| |
| |
11-09-2020 05:21 PM
#7742
| |
| |
11-09-2020 05:29 PM
#7743
| |
It happened in pretty much every state. The early votes favoured Trump more (rural) and the later ones favoured Biden more (urban and mail-in). The reason it looks suspicious is just the order they counted them in. | |
| |
11-09-2020 07:14 PM
#7744
| |
I love the idea that there was a problem in getting to the polls... boarded up windows, big pickup trucks... and no one has shared video on their facebook for their 15 minutes of fame. | |
| |
11-09-2020 07:17 PM
#7745
| |
Funny thing is that it's the rural people who are generally the nicest people who will pull over to help you change a flat tire on the side of the road no matter what. Whereas the urban people are generally dicks and barely have the time to give you good directions. | |
| |
11-09-2020 08:04 PM
#7746
| |
| |
11-09-2020 11:03 PM
#7747
| |
I love the proof that there's no such thing as cow-tipping being that there are no YouTube videos of cow-tipping. | |
| |
11-10-2020 12:16 AM
#7748
| |
Where do you suspect the probability is introduced to the equation? | |
11-10-2020 12:52 AM
#7749
| |
They got the actual reservation call from inside Four Seasons Total Landscaping! | |
| |
11-10-2020 04:06 AM
#7750
| |
| |
11-10-2020 09:36 AM
#7751
| |
Trump's odds are shorter, he's now at 10/1 | |
| |
11-10-2020 09:44 AM
#7752
| |
The question is how much these factors can cause a swing like we're seeing. 300k is a fuckton of votes to claw back. Even if Biden is outperforming Trump in the cities, Trump still gets votes. Even if mail ballots favour Biden, they can't all be for him. And we're not seeing these kind of swings across the country, just in these contentious states. | |
| |
11-10-2020 07:07 PM
#7753
| |
There was no "claw back". The votes were not cast in response to previous cast votes. The votes were cast and then different batches of them were counted at different times. I suppose there is a bit of randomness in that each batch of votes reported from a specific county could be more or less representative of the actual vote. But from what I understand there were no weird swings in the vote breakdown in individual counties. And slow counting consistently correlates with large populations, meaning it was not a roll of the dice that saw Trump "come out ahead" at the start, it was a function of the non linear logistic burden of tallying a greater number of ballots. | |
11-10-2020 08:20 PM
#7754
| |
You need to use an analogy Ong will understand. | |
| |
11-11-2020 06:53 AM
#7755
| |
Boost's post made a lot more sense than yours, poop. Perhaps that's because boost is attempting to haver a serious conversation, while poop is just taking the piss. Reducto as poopium. | |
| |
11-11-2020 08:52 AM
#7756
| |
What kind of lead would you think IS surmountable? I get that 300k seems like a big number, and I don't remember how many votes there were in PA, but I'm sure it was in the millions. | |
Last edited by Poopadoop; 11-11-2020 at 09:16 AM.
| |
11-11-2020 09:23 AM
#7757
| |
If he had a case we'd have seen the evidence by now. He's just blowing smoke up the public's ass. The only way he can "win" is in fact to do something treacherous like fabricate evidence or arrest Biden for child pron or re-enact the Reichstag fire or some shit. The betting odds changing reflect nothing more the % of people who are gulllble enough to buy the fraud rhetoric if it gets repeated often enough. Don't treat it like it's some kind of barometer of reality - it's not. | |
| |
11-11-2020 09:46 AM
#7758
| |
What makes you think the betting people are "in the know", why wouldn't they have ideological bias? Compared to polls, betting odds might be a bit better indication of what those people actually think, albeit with even smaller sample size. Other than that, I don't see how or why they'd be any more accurate. | |
| |
11-11-2020 10:05 AM
#7759
| |
Exactly. The average bettor's only "inside information" is what they're seeing on their Auntie Doris' facebook page. I'll bet a good chunk of the dopes betting on Trump are the same ones who've been on r_thedonald for the past five years talking about how the arrest of Obama and Hillary are "imminent." | |
| |
11-11-2020 10:12 AM
#7760
| |
Well I already explained the math to you earlier and you didn't get it then, so I assumed explaining the math to you in a different way was pointless. | |
Last edited by Poopadoop; 11-12-2020 at 04:08 AM.
| |
11-11-2020 10:21 AM
#7761
| |
NYT projections have Biden winning PA already by Nov. 4, based on remaining votes to be counted. | |
| |
11-11-2020 11:15 AM
#7762
| |
You just have to take a stroll through https://thedonald.win/ to see who's bumping up those odds. 10:1 at this point is insane. I might get into politics betting if it's that soft. | |
| |
11-11-2020 02:21 PM
#7763
| |
At this point they're really just betting on the odds of Trump pulling off a successful coup, but I still think 10:1 is being generous to his organisational skills. | |
| |
11-11-2020 11:09 PM
#7764
| |
11-12-2020 06:14 AM
#7765
| |
| |
11-12-2020 06:17 AM
#7766
| |
| |
11-12-2020 07:22 AM
#7767
| |
I am 99% certain they're all idiots. Whether or not this is a good bet just depends on the vig. | |
| |
11-12-2020 07:28 AM
#7768
| |
https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreak...e_for_mocking/ | |
| |
11-12-2020 07:35 AM
#7769
| |
Ok, I just saw it's at 7:1. Where do you bet, Ong? What's a reputable politics betting site? I have never even done sports betting - I know less than nothing, but at 7:1 I'm playing Biden 4rollz. That's ridiculous. | |
| |
11-12-2020 08:02 AM
#7770
| |
I bet at Betfair Exchange, always better odds than bookmakers. Trump currently 9/1, and Biden 1/10. | |
| |
11-12-2020 08:20 AM
#7771
| |
| |
11-12-2020 08:23 AM
#7772
| |
Harris is getting 480:1. What are the chances a healthy 78 year old man kicks off in the next two months? It has to be greater than that! | |
| |
11-12-2020 08:29 AM
#7773
| |
75 year old man has 3.63% chance of dying in the next year. By 80 it goes up to 5%. | |
| |
11-12-2020 10:27 AM
#7774
| |
I wonder if this will affect the odds: | |
| |
11-12-2020 12:27 PM
#7775
| |
The strategy as I understand it is to throw up as many legal challenges as they can think of, even completely implausible ones, so that at some point the courts give up and say they can't confirm the election. Which would set a pretty weird precedent if it happened since then no more elections could be upheld if all it takes to deny one is to file a bunch of objections. | |
| |
11-12-2020 01:13 PM
#7776
| |
| |
11-12-2020 01:19 PM
#7777
| |
Can you legally bet on someone's death? That's what you're doing there. Biden's not looking awful, but at 480:1... | |
| |
11-12-2020 01:36 PM
#7778
| |
Surely the probability of death is higher during a pandemic, especially for someone 70+ | |
| |
11-12-2020 05:02 PM
#7779
| |
That's right. Fuck me, I'm all in on Harris!! | |
Last edited by Poopadoop; 11-12-2020 at 05:05 PM.
| |
11-12-2020 05:09 PM
#7780
| |
Wtf??? Gender of next president = female is only 200:1. Are some people expecting Biden to get a sex change before he takes over? Or that Hillary is coming back? These people are fucked... | |
| |
11-12-2020 06:00 PM
#7781
| |
Ong, what happened in Pennsylvania and other states was predicted by just about everyone talking about the election at least 2 weeks prior to it happening. Pretty sure I repeated that prediction here prior to the election, too. | |
| |
11-12-2020 06:18 PM
#7782
| |
"Let's see, should I bet on Harris getting 570:1, or on any female getting 200:1. Hmmm...." | |
| |
11-12-2020 08:27 PM
#7783
| |
You can bet on Harris at 570, then bet against female at 200... printing money. | |
| |
11-12-2020 08:31 PM
#7784
| |
The difficulty is getting someone to take the bet. Someone is offering 200 on female, doesn't mean anyone is taking it. There are lots of apparent anomalies like that when sub-markets are not particularly liquid. Basically someone is trying to get someone to take odds of 200 so he can then go and bet it on Harris at a much bigger price. There's money to be made on betfair if you have a solid roll and a fuckton of discipline. | |
| |
11-12-2020 08:49 PM
#7785
| |
Basic example... if some clown takes your odds of 200 for female president, $10, you then go at stick $5 on Harris to be President at 400, you just made five bucks if Harris isn't prez, and break even if someone she is. If you can get a bet like that every 15 minutes, you're in business, making $20 an hour. | |
| |
11-13-2020 04:02 AM
#7786
| |
| |
11-13-2020 05:05 AM
#7787
| |
Last edited by Poopadoop; 11-13-2020 at 08:05 AM.
| |
11-13-2020 01:23 PM
#7788
| |
I'd take a long shot on either on Eric or Ivanka. I think Jr just wants to go bear hunting and Tiffany... well, you know. But either one is a very realistic choice for 24 and if somehow Biden doesn't get primaried, they would have a decent shot. The most likely republican candidate is obviously DJT again. | |
Last edited by oskar; 11-13-2020 at 02:05 PM.
| |
11-13-2020 02:04 PM
#7789
| |
I'll give you evens on Rudy vs. Eric. 5 of your Euros to 5 of my English pounds. | |
| |
11-13-2020 02:08 PM
#7790
| |
I'll take the first one. Maybe you can get Ong on the 2nd. | |
| |
11-13-2020 06:21 PM
#7791
| |
Million MAGA March scheduled for tomorrow in D.C. Well, this should be a shitshow. | |
| |
11-14-2020 07:51 AM
#7792
| |
It will be. It'll be a lot of twats waving flags and shouting slogans. If Trump had won, it would be a bunch of twats smashing up shops. | |
| |
11-14-2020 08:42 AM
#7793
| |
| |
11-14-2020 09:10 AM
#7794
| |
Lol, he's never going to "concede", at least not in the sense of saying "Biden won fair and square." He'll keep saying it was rigged till the day he dies. | |
| |
11-14-2020 09:58 AM
#7795
| |
We'll see. His ego might force him to say Biden won fair and square, as the alternative is to basically imply you were cheated, but are too chicken to to take on the cheats. | |
| |
11-14-2020 11:46 AM
#7796
| |
| |
11-14-2020 11:49 AM
#7797
| |
| |
11-14-2020 11:52 AM
#7798
| |
| |
11-14-2020 12:03 PM
#7799
| |
| |
11-14-2020 12:04 PM
#7800
| |
| |