*** The Official MAGAposting thread ***

[OngBonga]

That could literally be one person thinking 1000/1, I'll bet five bucks, then someone sees someone bet on Harris and thinks "wtf does he know" and bets £20, and suddenly the people offering those odds get nervous, offer shorter odds instead, and then we have the illusion of action.

[boost]

That could literally be one person thinking 1000/1, I'll bet five bucks, then someone sees someone bet on Harris and thinks "wtf does he know" and bets £20, and suddenly the people offering those odds get nervous, offer shorter odds instead, and then we have the illusion of action.

Yeah, betting lines as predictors are interesting, and can be useful, but as you've pointed out, it's important to understand how betting lines are set-- essentially it's another form of polling. Similar to polling, sample size is important, and also controlling for who chooses to participate. For example, I have a hunch that bettors skew to Trump supporters.