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 Originally Posted by boost
what are the odds on wuf reappearing in the next week? Are they higher or lower if Trump wins?
I think he'd be here if he thought Trump was going to win and still supported him. The former doesn't seem likely, and the latter is an open question. I think regardless, his days of shouting #MAGA to people who aren't buying it are behind him.
The election is still scary though. I know the 538 guys are saying something like 90% Biden wins, but as someone with a pretty good grasp of probability theory the idea of applying it to an election outcome seems pretty nonsensical. It's not like you some random events are going to impact the outcome.
More reasonable to me seems to be there will be a systematic error in the polling that will tend to repeat across multiple states. There's no way to know the size or direction of that error in advance, it likely depends on a lot of unknowns, and it only takes the polls to be systematically off by ~2.5% nationwide for Trump to be able to squeak out a win.
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