NFL WildCard Weekend!

[WildBobAA]

Both the Vikings and the Cardinals are in danger of having their playoff games blacked out. What a f*cking disgrace to have this much trouble selling out a home playoff game.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/playof...ory?id=3803478

All four home teams are dogs this weekend which is pretty funny.

Predictions:

Falcons vs Cardinals
The Cardinals are bad. They are 6-0 within their division (49ers, Seahawks, Rams lol) but 3-7 outside of it. I'm expecting Michael Turner to have a huge game as the coaches will likely want to keep the Cardinal offense off the field by running the ball. Falcons win.

Colts vs Chargers
The Colts are the hottest team in the league right now, riding a 9 game win streak. These two teams know each other well and Peyton Manning has laid some eggs vs the Chargers recently, but I expect the MVP to lead his team to a victory. Plus LT and Antonio Gates are banged up. Colts win.

Baltimore vs Miami
This is a tough game to pick. Both teams are 9-2 in their last 11 games. Baltimore has already won in Miami this year but they also have a rookie QB which usually means a loss in the playoffs. Baltimore has a great defense as usual but Chad Pennington doesn't turn the ball over. Miami wins a very close game.

Eagles vs Vikings
Everyone is picking the Eagles to win this game which I don't understand. Yeah they crushed Dallas last week in a de facto playoff game, but that doesn't change the fact that they are one of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL. The formula for this game is simple: if good Philly shows up, they win, if bad Philly shows up, they lose. I'll take good Philly. Eagles win.

[bigspenda73]

I like Minny mainly b/c every one in the world likes Philly, also because like you said, they are lolinconsistent.

[yourfather]

I like your picks except give me Baltimore all day.

[a500lbgorilla]

Baltimore all day long.

[yourfather]

An twice on Sundays!

[Alibi]

yeah i'm going to bandwagon here and say b-more takes miami out

[bode]

I like your picks except give me Baltimore all day.

this. it will be a close game, but bmore wins.

[Lukie]

Eagles vs Vikings
Everyone is picking the Eagles to win this game which I don't understand.... I'll take good Philly. Eagles win.

This made me .. yes I know that I cleverly omitted your reasoning, but it's still funny.

Anyway, I think I like your picks and reasoning, but I'm leaning toward Baltimore as well. That defense is just nasty and the 'Fins rode a much easier schedule to the playoffs. Also figure that the Ravens got screwed early in the year with the hurricane and having their game moved and what not (I'm sure the Texans are sulking for them).

Indy vs SD I expect to be excellent. You have to figure that the Colts REALLY wanted the Broncos to get in somehow. The Colts have struggled in recent memory against the Chargers but always crush the Broncos. I still like Indy though, as they have been unbelievable the second half of the year. Count me as one who thought they were done early in the year.

Who would have thought at the start of the year that Atlanta and Arizona would be playing each other in the playoffs?

[bigmikea78]

As a lifelong Eagles fan, these are the games that make me cringe. Normally, when everyone is picking us, we spit the bit. Remember the 3 straight NFC Championship Games we lost (esp in 2002 against Tampa - last game ever at the Vet).

Plus, the Eagles road record this year is 3-4-1, while Minny is 6-2 at home (only losses are by 3 to Indy and 7 to Atlanta). This game is all about the Eagles offense, if we stay balanced and don't turn the ball over, we win easy. If Bad Andy shows up and starts throwing the ball all over the yard. Minnesota wins. I am not concerned with the Vikings offense especially since the Eagles D has only allowed 10 ppg the last 4 weeks. I am hoping that Balanced Andy shows up and remembers we have Westbrook and Buckhalter to run the football.

My predictions:
Cardinals 31, Falcons 20
Colts 28, Chargers 24
Ravens 17, Dolphins 9
Eagles 20, Vikings 16

[bode]

so i've had this dull feeling in the back of my mind that the chargers are going to own the colts and they are going to get bounced again this year in the first round, until.....

i found out that the chargers are only 3-7 outside of there division. wtf? its kind of pathetic that a team with a 500 record overall, who 5 of the 8 wins are beating up on division powerhouses Oakland and Kansas City (no offense UG) is even in the playoffs. All the while this team somehow has homefield advantage against a 12-4 team in a tougher division. Kinda bullshit if you think about it.

/rant.

[zook]

I actually like Arizona today. They've been a very good team at home (only losing to the Giants and Vikings) and have a playoff-tested QB and the best WR tandem in the league. Atlanta doesn't have a good passing defense and all but one of their losses has been on the road. Matt Ryan has been ridiculously good this year, but I still don't have confidence in rookie QBs playing in their first playoff games, esp on the road. Neither team has a very good defense so I like Arizona winning in a high-scoring game.

Colts are super hot, can't see the Chargers slowing them down. This is the easiest pick of the weekend imo, so many reasons to pick the Colts, not least of which being never bet on Norv Turner in a big game.

I like Baltimore over Miami, but just barely. Again, a rookie QB making his first playoff start makes me nervous, even when his counterpart is Chad Pennington. Ravens D should win this for them though.

I'm a huge Eagles fan but I'm picking Minnesota in this one. The Eagles are not a good team. They are incredibly inconsistent offensively, at almost every position, starting with McNabb and his subpar receivers all the way down to the offensive line. Of course Westbrook is great but he still relies on his blockers, McNabb, and the the playcalling of Reid/Morningweg. Which brings me to Andy Reid, one of the worst game coaches in the NFL. Great drafter and personnel manager but horrible game coach. After 10 years of wasted timeouts, failed challenges and two-minute drills botched in every way imaginable I don't have any faith in the Eagles' ability to win a close game. As for Minnesota, yeah Tavaris Jackson sucks, but they have the best RB in the NFL and a great defense and that's all you need. Plus if any offensive coach knows how to scheme against Jim Johnson's defense it should be Brad Childress. I expect to see a steady diet of outside runs, draw plays and screen passes. Of course the "good" Eagles could show up and win this game but I'm not betting on it.

cliffnotes: Arizona, Indy, B'more, Minny

[dthorne04]

zook, you are a goddamn nonbeliever. ;keawfioeaufsklsdfa

[swiggidy]

LT is hurt, LDO

[fjuanl]

LT is leveling

[WildBobAA]

WHY THE FUCK IS MATT MILLEN ON THE NBC PREGAME I AM ON TILT

[yourfather]

I have money on ATL +1 and INDY -1.5 and I am nervous about ATL wtf secondguessamants.

[Ragnar4]

Yano. I'm not happy that the Chargers are in and the Broncos aren't. But whatev.

What I do want to see, is the Chargers flat out embarass Indy. Destroy. I love it when Peyton Manning is a little baby on national television throwing his teammates under the bus after an embarassing loss.

So Phil, good luck sir. Beat those colts good.

[baudib]

Andy Reid is not a great drafter. Fuck him and fuck trading out of the first round every year.

I think JJ and the gang will make Jackson miserable. Or Peterson will run for 473 yards. But I like the Birds.

I think the Andy Reid coaching tree is going to out-Super Bowl Andy Reid by about 8-1.

[Lukie]

so i've had this dull feeling in the back of my mind that the chargers are going to own the colts and they are going to get bounced again this year in the first round, until.....

i found out that the chargers are only 3-7 outside of there division. wtf? its kind of pathetic that a team with a 500 record overall, who 5 of the 8 wins are beating up on division powerhouses Oakland and Kansas City (no offense UG) is even in the playoffs. All the while this team somehow has homefield advantage against a 12-4 team in a tougher division. Kinda bullshit if you think about it.

/rant.

similar thing in the NFC... the Cardinals are 9-7 including a 6-0 mark in the even more pathetic NFC west. Yet they are hosting the 11-5 Falcons who come from a much tougher division.

This is what happens when you have only 4 teams in each division and guarantee a playoff spot to at least 1 of those teams, and also guarantee them a home playoff gmae.

[swiggidy]

CAN YOU BELIEVE THE PATRIOTS AREN'T PLAYING TODAY? WHAT AN INJUSTICE TO AMERICA'S TEAM.

[rcommins]

The scoop and score at the beginning of the second half might be a turning point. Also, WTF is with the cardinals actually being able to run even somewhat effectively (avg 4.6 halfway thu the 3rd).

[frosst]

ZOMG UR TELLING ME SAN DIEGO HAS A CHANCE?!

[bigred]

chargers didn't even deserve to be in the playoffs let alone win this game. what a joke

[WildBobAA]

lol I'm going to get every prediction wrong, that takes skill

[swiggidy]

chargers didn't even deserve to be in the playoffs let alone win this game. what a joke

I KNOWZ. MATT CASSEL IS TOO HOT TO BE HELD DOWN!!!

[frosst]

lol penaltyments

[UG]

lol I'm going to get every prediction wrong, that takes skill

you're just mimicking teh Detroit Lions imo

[zook]

lol penaltyments

[bigspenda73]

Vegas losing their shirts on teh home dogs?

[yourfather]

i h8 ftbol

[kmind]

WOOOOOOOOOOOOO 2-0 babyyyyyyyyyyyy Cardinals suck = plz advance so the Panthers have a shot to destroy and Chargers = amazing with PHILIP RIVERS!!

[Lukie]

lol I'm going to get every prediction wrong, that takes skill

you're just mimicking teh Detroit Lions imo

[bikes]

lol I'm going to get every prediction wrong, that takes skill

you're just mimicking teh Detroit Lions imo

So brutal. I feel truly bad for my parents being lions fans. No one deserves such things.

[WildBobAA]

lol I'm going to get every prediction wrong, that takes skill

you're just mimicking teh Detroit Lions imo

Hah, the Chiefs were just as bad as the Lions this year, the only difference is the Lions had the 2nd hardest schedule in the NFL. If the Chiefs played the Lions' schedule, they would have been 0-16 also. The Lions were better than the Rams too.

[bigspenda73]

actually they weren't, the Rams and Chiefs both won two games

The Lions did not win any games

hence, Chiefs/Rams>Lions

[WildBobAA]

Right, because the only way to measure how good a team is is by their record.

I realize that the 08 Lions are going to be recognized as the worst team ever. But if they played the Rams on a neutral field, the Lions would be favored. I guess the Colts are better than the Chargers, and the Falcons are better than the Cardinals, eh Spenda?

[a500lbgorilla]

By the same logic: the best team is always the favored one, right?

edit or maybe just by the same sentence structure. Point is, football is too wild and crazy!

[WildBobAA]

By the same logic: the best team is always the favored one, right?

edit or maybe just by the same sentence structure. Point is, football is too wild and crazy!

By "favored" I mean the Lions would beat the Rams on a neutral field > 50% of the time.

[bigspenda73]

Right, because the only way to measure how good a team is is by their record.

I realize that the 08 Lions are going to be recognized as the worst team ever. But if they played the Rams on a neutral field, the Lions would be favored. I guess the Colts are better than the Chargers, and the Falcons are better than the Cardinals, eh Spenda?

Chargers beat the Colts

Cardinals beat the Falcons

The Lions did neither to the Chiefs/Rams. Also, iirc, the teams favored lost the games you mentioned, so being favored may not mean a whole lot.

[WildBobAA]

Once again, by "favored" I'm not talking about point spreads.

[a500lbgorilla]

The worst team in the league could match up favorably to the second worst team in the league. That still doesn't show they're not the worst.

It's like those victory triangles you see in college football every year. Tech beat State who beat Univ who beat Tech!

[WildBobAA]

Right, because the only way to measure how good a team is is by their record.

I realize that the 08 Lions are going to be recognized as the worst team ever. But if they played the Rams on a neutral field, the Lions would be favored. I guess the Colts are better than the Chargers, and the Falcons are better than the Cardinals, eh Spenda?

Chargers beat the Colts

Cardinals beat the Falcons

The Lions did neither to the Chiefs/Rams. Also, iirc, the teams favored lost the games you mentioned, so being favored may not mean a whole lot.

Lol at how you're judging a team being better than another team. The Browns beat the Giants this year so by your logic the Browns are better. But obviously if they play the game millions of times, the Giants would win >50% of the time, hence they are the better team. Cmon, you're a poker player this should be obvious.

[WildBobAA]

The worst team in the league could match up favorably to the second worst team in the league. That still doesn't show they're not the worst.

It's like those victory triangles you see in college football every year. Tech beat State who beat Univ who beat Tech!

Completely different situation than the college football this year. Plus you're completely ignoring SOS which s pretty lol.

[WildBobAA]

Saying one team is better than the other, based only on their records, when they play two completely different schedules is pretty ridiculous imo.

[bigspenda73]

bob St. Louis beat Dallas at home and won ON THE ROAD at Washington....that fucks up your argument right there.

KC beat Denver and won @OAK, so that does not do a whole lot for my argument, however

Detroit lost AT HOME to the Redskins, hence it's very easy for me to say the Rams were better than the Lions.

[UG]

I was just making a funny, no need to be mad people


p.s. yes the Chiefs suck, and I agree that the Lions would probably beat the Chiefs and/or Rams

[WildBobAA]

bob St. Louis beat Dallas at home and won ON THE ROAD at Washington....that fucks up your argument right there.

Oh please, the Dallas game where everyone thought Romo was going to play but then in pre-game warmups decided he couldn't go and the Cowboys had to throw Brad Johnson out there? The Washington game where the Rams got that BS fumble return for a TD right before halftime? Please, that doesn't prove anything.

[WildBobAA]

Also, wtf is w/ Pennington imploding? 7 ints in 476 pass attempts this season and he has 4 today.

[baudib]

this is like arguing whether you'd want 32o or 72o

[yourfather]

Beat: Today's game is the one game I was right on so far, but I also slept too late to get my bet in guhhhh. Of course I had no issues getting my losing bets in yesterday.

[WildBobAA]

this is like arguing whether you'd want 32o or 72o

Well are we heads up or playing full ring? ;)

[WildBobAA]

Tavaris Jackson is bad.

[bigspenda73]

bob St. Louis beat Dallas at home and won ON THE ROAD at Washington....that fucks up your argument right there.

Oh please, the Dallas game where everyone thought Romo was going to play but then in pre-game warmups decided he couldn't go and the Cowboys had to throw Brad Johnson out there? The Washington game where the Rams got that BS fumble return for a TD right before halftime? Please, that doesn't prove anything.

I'd love to be you, anything that ever disproves your theory can never be correct.

You played 1 common team, in which you lost at home while the Rams won on the road. That proves my theory, that's all we can judge this on, is common opponent. I don't wanna argue anymore though as we've been pretty civil lately.

[Lukie]

Andy Reid is big. Holy shit is that guy huge. He has to be over 400 pounds.

Bob, the Lions went 0-16. Who cares if whether or not they'd be favored on a neutral field against other very horrible teams. The point is that there have been many 1 and 2 win teams in NFL history; never has there been an 0-16 team until the Lions pulled that feat off. They also had the worst point differential in the league (-249 net points).

Really though it's not a big deal. I would just laugh it off. I have no idea why you are getting so defensive about it.

[WildBobAA]

I'd love to be you, anything that ever disproves your theory can never be correct.

You played 1 common team, in which you lost at home while the Rams won on the road. That proves my theory, that's all we can judge this on, is common opponent. I don't wanna argue anymore though as we've been pretty civil lately.

No, I'm just waiting for someone to come up with a theory that proves me wrong :). I don't really consider this arguing either, I see us as having a debate about football, nothing wrong with that. I like talking about football on FTR because most of the people on here (including you Spenda) are willing to listen to logic and are generally intelligent while most of the people I know irl who care about football are morons and wouldn't be able to talk intelligently about football for more than a second.

Now back to the debate, your common opponent theory is flawed. If it was true, then that means that because the Bengals beat the Browns who beat the Giants, the Bengals are better than the Giants.

[WildBobAA]

Bob, the Lions went 0-16. Who cares if whether or not they'd be favored on a neutral field against other very horrible teams. The point is that there have been many 1 and 2 win teams in NFL history; never has there been an 0-16 team until the Lions pulled that feat off. They also had the worst point differential in the league (-249 net points).

I realize that they will go down as the worst team in NFL history but I'm just trying to make the point that they likely aren't even the worst team in the NFL this year. They are just as bad as any other 1 or 2 win team but they ran bad this year because of a brutal schedule and some breaks that didn't go their way.

[bigspenda73]

Bob I'm saying the only thing we can base the two off of is a head-to-head matchup b/c you say record doesn't matter. I feel record does matter, that's why the Bengals might be considered worse than the Browns who are certainly worse than the Giants, due to record.

If we look at these teams common opponents what do you think we'd find?

[WildBobAA]

A lot of the stuff I'm saying is just poker concepts being applied to football. Judging a team based only on their record (results) is similar to saying that Peter Eastgate was the best poker player in the 2008 Main Event because he won.

[WildBobAA]

Bob I'm saying the only thing we can base the two off of is a head-to-head matchup b/c you say record doesn't matter. I feel record does matter, that's why the Bengals might be considered worse than the Browns who are certainly worse than the Giants, due to record.

If we look at these teams common opponents what do you think we'd find?

I'm not saying record doesn't matter at all because it does. But there are a lot of other factors to consider besides just two teams' records when you're deciding which is the better team.

[bigspenda73]

Also, jflsdjafldjalkfjdlajflsdjalfeotjewoifj why don't the Titans get the Chargers in round two?

[Lukie]

Bob,

The Lions just became the first 0-16 team in history. They had the worst point differential in the league at -249 points-- Only STL was close to this.

You bring up some good point, some not so good points, but you're making yourself look silly.

[Lukie]

Also, jflsdjafldjalkfjdlajflsdjalfeotjewoifj why don't the Titans get the Chargers in round two?

Idea: The number one seed gets to pick which team they play in the divisional round. The round is currently set up to give the #1 seed the advantage, by having them play the lower of the two seeds that won in the wild card round, regardless of which 'bracket' they came from. I think we can all agree though that the Eagles are a significantly better team than the Cardinals, yet the #1 seed Giants still have to play the Eagles.

Similar thing with Titans/Chargers ldo.

[UG]

bob please let me know your picks for next week's games so I can bet the opposite. I'm gonna be rich!


also, bob, I agree with your analysis on the Lions, but shaking the whole 0-16 thing is basically impossible. my Chiefs were probably worse but we ran better (if you want to break it down like poker). everything went right when we beat the Broncos at home and the Raiders are lolbad and we proved it by beating them in Oakland. that said we were pretty fucking terrible and I'd pick the Lions to beat the Chiefs any day of the week.

[baudib]

I figure Giants will be favored by 6 and Titans should be favored by 5 or so, but both those games are really coinflips.

[zook]

but both those games are really coinflips.

never underestimate the value of the week off

[UG]

they might be rusty though?

[baudib]

but both those games are really coinflips.

never underestimate the value of the week off

tru, tho the SB winners have been coming out of wildcard weekend lately.

Giants/Titans = QQ; Eagles/Ravens = AKo

[dthorne04]

Boom?

FUCK YOU ZOOK, GODDAMN NONBELIEVER

[zook]

FUCK YOU ZOOK, GODDAMN NONBELIEVER

meh, no way they'll beat the giants

[dthorne04]

FUCK YOU ZOOK, GODDAMN NONBELIEVER

meh, no way they'll beat the giants

spoken like a true iggles fan imo

[baudib]

I'll pre-emptively say Reid and McNabb gotta go.

I'll be stuck at work with a bunch of giants fans, so fuck them. (I proudly wore my gross blue/yellow Dawkins throwback jersey today)

[zook]

FUCK YOU ZOOK, GODDAMN NONBELIEVER

meh, no way they'll beat the giants

spoken like a true iggles fan imo

If they beat the Gints I'll start beginning to believe.

[dthorne04]

FUCK YOU ZOOK, GODDAMN NONBELIEVER

meh, no way they'll beat the giants

spoken like a true iggles fan imo

If they beat the Gints I'll start beginning to believe.

get ready then.

[baudib]

your optimism sickens me

[bigspenda73]

if the iggles go deep I won't be able to take dthorne on aim for like a year