|
Hey Chris:
Sorry I couldn't answer your questions personally before. I've been out all day with friends, so I didn't really have a chance to check the forums.
To answer your questions,
77% public on LA
Line has stayed at -5 for LA all day
And pinnacle has La -5 (+100) while all others are -5(-110)
Using what I wrote to size my bets earlier, this would be a 2 unit bet on Charlotte. However, I consider when Pinny holds a -111 and up a Pinny lean and not necessarily a -110. When they're holding -113 or -114 compared to the -110's out there, that's what I call a strong lean. -110's are 'iffy Pinny leans' to me.
What if lines doesnt move how do u look at that? Not a reverse line movement but not going in right direction either.
Still fiddling with this. If the line moves exactly like it should (i.e. 1.5 to 3.5 point line move on a game where the public is heavily on the favorite), then I'll either A) stay off it or B) ignore it. Still tweaking this. I think that you do sitll have an edge, but not as big of one as when the line stays the same or goes in the direction to encourage more action on the 'wrong' team.
so my question is why ML? why not take points? i know u can make more on ML but if its the underdog shouldnt u take points? or is this the gambling part of it ...go big win big.?
I think bigspenda addressed this. I believe that betting M/L dogs is more +EV in the long run because the spread only matters in about 12-15% of NBA games. By that, I mean that the favorite won, but didn't cover. All other games, if the favorite won, they covered the number and if the underdog won, they won straight up.
I believe this benefits me in two ways: 1) I get paid more when the underdog wins. This shoudl be self-explanatory. 2) I lose less when the underdog loses. Instead of losing 1.05 units on a bet with (-105) juice, I only lose 1 unit.
Obviously, I'm going to lose more games this way than had I taken teh points, but I believe in the long run, the cost savings (from losing less) and the extra winnings (from the plus juice) will offset any losses I incur from losing games where I would have won had the dog covered, but not won straight up.
I am happy about that but I see i could have won more by betting M/L on char.
I think i get this now. I will post all bets from now on. Not to give any advice but to let my bets be recorded. Any success I have i owe to Lee, zook, and Bigspenda. So here go guys......
Glad to hear you're understanding what I'm doing now. Have fun with this, and remember to never bet money you can't afford to lose. 
And thanks for the kudos. Ego boosters are always great things. 
Oh: and congrats on a good first night out!
|