Over and over and over again I am told by random internet people that the Vegas lines don't represent the actual odds that the oddsmakers expect. Instead, setting and moving the line is based primarily on evening the action on both sides so that they can play both sides against each other and scoop the rake.

Is this true? Or is Vegas more concerned with setting unbeatable lines and then scooping the rake + bettor's sub-optimal betting patterns over the long run?

Or is there an option number three: that it's a combination of those two factors, but in today's age, the two end up looking a lot alike?

My thoughts below.