Quote Originally Posted by daviddem View Post
I don't really get your "element of surprise" argument. Aren't criminals expecting citizens to be armed in CCW states, or at least very aware of the possibility? I mean if I was a criminal, I certainly would be.

You on the other hand can't be expecting to be attacked every time you get out of your house, so it seems the element of surprise is still on their side?
I don't think most street criminals are particularly bright where they have thought deeply and logically about all possibilities. Otherwise it is very likely that they would have taken a very different career path. Admittedly, that is probably not the best attitude for me to have.

I'm sure they are aware of the possiblity. But even for a perfectly logical thinker, CCW really isn't that mainstream. Say 3% actually have active permits in 'shall-issue' states, and that (generously) a third are actually carrying at any given time. 1% is low enough to be a surprise, but high enough to considerably skew the risk:reward ratio in an unfavorable direction for those of us inclined to view that as a one outer with one card to come.

The percentage chance of being viciously attacked, robbed, threatened with a weapon etc. is well under 1% anytime you leave the house (otherwise you need to move ASAP!) Again you are talking about one of those CCW guys who doesn't usually carry, so we could probably stop here and at find at least some agreement. I say that for those of us who actually pay attention to our surroundings (note that situational awareness is different than being paranoid or profiling), many crude and unsophisticated attacks and what not should not come as a surprise.

If you walk around a corner and there is a gun in your face, you're right, there's not a whole hell of a lot you can do other than do exactly what that person says and hope for the best. That's life. But even in that specific case, the other person cannot be so sure that the victim will do what is in his/her overwhelming best interest. The victim may indeed pull a gun, and now the initial aggressor is between a rock and a hard place. If he now shoots and kills the victim, that is murder. If he doesn't he probably gets shot. That is one of a huge number of possible scenarios that steer sensible people away from that kind of crime.

So who does that leave?