ensign_lee's Quest to be Better than a Coinflip Week 14! YTD: 93-103-3, + 74.6 units

[ensign_lee]

Started keeping track of my bets with some new software where each leg of my straddle gets calculated as a separate bet (so instead of me counting a win as a win, it goes against my record as a win and a loss / and instead of me counting a loss as a loss, it goes against my record as two losses), so my new record is:

YTD: 93-103-3
Units Won: +74.6 units

Kicking off the week with:

Tennessee Titans M/L (+168)
1 unit at theGreek

Even though I hate Tennessee (remember, I'm a Texans fan), I feel like them getting over a field goal at home here against a division rival is a big much. The Colts weakness on defense is supposedly the run, which is the main thing that Tennessee is built to do on offense. With an extra few days under his belt, Collins should look better than he did last week, when he was rushed into service because of Rusty's injury.

I feel like +168 is good value here (just missed getting +170 at theGreek). The fact that Pinnacle is only offering this at +158 was enough to push me over the top to make this a wager.

[ensign_lee]

lol, wow was I wrong about TEN. Indy's up by 14+, so....

IND pk (+108)
Risking 8.2 units

[ensign_lee]

Adding these before they're gone:

Bears +3 (-117)
3 units between BetTrojan and BetMania

3 Team Teaser
(Bears +9, Falcons -1.5, open)
2 units (+180) at theGreek

Leaving that last spot open hoping to be able to catch Pittsburgh if I can tease through the -3 to get PIT -2.5. If not, guess I'll have to figure something out.

[ensign_lee]

Buying back the 2 units of the Bears +3 at a 7 cent loss because the line seems to have moved back up to 3, and the entire reason I was making that bet was reverse line movement.

There's no real way to undo my teaser, so I'm gonna have to live with it. Hopefully the elements help the BEars or at the very least keep them within 9.

Also, adding

Jacksonville Jaguars -4 (+105)
4 units at Matchbook

I'm playing the whole west coast to east coast early game angle, along with the Raiders having to win two in a row thing here. Got run over earlier this week with the -4 bet, so I guess I'm gonna have to live with it.

[ensign_lee]

Adding:

Seattle Seahawks M/L (+200)
1 unit at BetTrojan

[ensign_lee]

Doesn't look like I'll be able to get off of my Bears bet totally, so that turns my bet into:

Chicago Bears +3 (-130)
1 unit at BetMania

that I'll be holding on to.

[ensign_lee]

Adding

St. Louis Rams +9 (-103)
1 unit at Matchbook

[ensign_lee]

New York Jets -5.5 (+103)
1 unit at Matchbook

[ensign_lee]

Falcons are up by 14+, so, blindly taking them in the 2nd half like I have all season.

Falcons -3 (+103)
Risking 7.8 units at Matchbook

[bigspenda73]

Mike Goodson gonna shit all over that bet



good luck this week

[ensign_lee]

SOOO LUCKY! Thank you Panthers for throwing interceptions!!! And thank you Falcons for finishing that with a TD!

and thank you Oakland, I dunno if you let Jacksonville score there, but YESSSS!!!!


phew...hooray for the luckbox!

[ensign_lee]

Oh hey, my offer on the Eagles got matched:

Eagles -3.5 (-102)
1 unit at Matchbook

Rolling with Ace-Ace on this one

[ensign_lee]

Teams up by 14+ at half:

San Francisco +.5 (+103)
Risking 8.2 units at theGreek

San Diego -3 (-105)
To Win 8.2 units at theGreek

[ensign_lee]

New Orleans -3 (+105)
Risking 8.2 units at Matchbook

[ensign_lee]

Annddd...just for kicks,

4 Team Parlay (+1091)
Patriots +.5
Saints -3
49ers +.5
Chargers -3

Probably a stupid idea, but I already did it so....

[ensign_lee]

New England M/L (2nd Half) (+100)
Risking 8.2 units between Matchbook and BetTrojan

[bigspenda73]

Annddd...just for kicks,

4 Team Parlay (+1091)
Patriots +.5
Saints -3
49ers +.5
Chargers -3

Probably a stupid idea, but I already did it so....

edit: those are 2nd half lines?

[ensign_lee]

Annddd...just for kicks,

4 Team Parlay (+1091)
Patriots +.5
Saints -3
49ers +.5
Chargers -3

Probably a stupid idea, but I already did it so....

This was for 2 units if it matters, but it's a longshot, so it prob won't matter.

[ensign_lee]

edit: those are 2nd half lines?

Yeah, 2nd half lines.

Sorry. They're all doing with that strat I use where I blindly take any team up by 14+ at halftime in the 2nd half.

[ensign_lee]

Aww, damn. Oh well.

Considering I'm really lucky to even be 3-8 here, I suppose being down about 4 units isn't terrible.

[ensign_lee]

Final bet of the week:

Minnesota Vikings M/L (+209)
2 units at Matchbook

Ideally, I'd like to wait on word on Brett Favre's status first, but I'll be tailgating for the Texans game, so...not an option. I'm hoping that Tarvaris plays and plays well.

If the Texans line hits a concensus +2.5, I'll be making a 3 unit play on the Texans, and as always, will blindly be taking any team up by 14+ at halftime in the 2nd half.

[ensign_lee]

Ugh...

Finished out the week with:

Baltimore Ravens pk (+110)
Risking 7.8 units at Matchbook since they were up by 14 at halftime.

Got HORRIBLY emotionally middled on that game. Ugh. Would have been okay losing if we'd won the game blech.

That makes three games recently now where I've gotten middled, where the side I took for hte full game got blown own, but the other side that I took for the 2nd half lost as well. Ooof, variance is not fun.