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 ensign_lee's Quest to be Better Than a Coinflip Week 13 ! (YTD: 75-74-1, +64.77 unit
YTD: 75-74-1
Units Won: +64.77
YES, FINALLY over 50% (hard to do when your average bet is at +156)!
Kicking off this thread a little earlier this week due to the games being earlier. Here we go!
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New England Patriots -6.5 (-104)
2 units at Matchbook
Yes, I know that like 80% of the public is on this play with me. And there's reverse line movement from 7 to 6.5. Yes, this does worry me.
But you know what? Last several years, it hasn't mattered who the public was on on Thanksgiving weekend. I've noticed that for big, nationwide holidays, the public actually does better. Why? I have no idea, but it seems that way.
Being the 11:30 game on Thursday following a game on Sunday means that these teams will have little to no preparation compared to normal. Which means that the straight up talent of the teams comes more into play, along with the familiarity of the players in their systems. Advantage: Patriots.
I've seen the Lions get rolled on Thanksgiving too many times in a row to let the reverse line movement get me off this play this time. If this is trap, I'm diving in headfirst!
And, as always, will blindly be taking any team in the 2nd half who is up 14+ at halftime. If I'm not able to post the bet at halftime, my apologies, but it is thanksgiving, and it's hard enough for me to get the best line at halftime sometimes without having to come back here and post it simultaneously. ^^
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