ensign_lee's NBA Thread

[ensign_lee]

Haha. The one night I decide to lay off fading the public, two of the bets I normally would have made look gold.

And I actually took the REVERSE position on one of them. Dammmit. Way to go New Jersey and Golden State.

[ensign_lee]

A 4-3 night, leaving me at + 1.02 units. I shouldn't have gotten disgusted with fading the public just because of Dallas. DAMMIT.

Oh well: still in the plus money. That's something.

YTD: 30-29
Units Won: 13.39
Spread Difference Factor: 4 games

[ensign_lee]

Got some totals from another handicapper:

New York/Boston Under 209.5 (-103) - Pinnacle
Orlando/Miami Over 183 (-105) - Pinnacle
Dallas/San Antonio Over 190 (-105) - Pinnacle
Cleveland/Indiana Over 185.5 (-105) - Pinnacle

And for sides, I have these:

Philadelphia M/L vs. Chicago (+110.74) - Matchbook
Philadelphia opened as a favorite, then went to a dog...on public money. Good enough for me. Only snag is that Pinnacle is hanging a (-111) on Chicago -1.5 while everyone else has a -110. Eeep.

Miami pk vs. Orlando (-105) - BetTrojan
Miami started out as a favorite, then went to a dog...and is now currently hanging between a dog or a pick'em. The fact that they went from a favorite to a dog is what makes this play a play. When that happens, unless the book did it by themselves (without the incentive of money on one side), that usually means the public or even the sharps saying "FU book! I know better than you!". Except...well...what usually ends up happening is that the book gets to say "FU player! Hah!" So yeah.

Minnesota M/L @ New Orleans (+178.36) - Matchbook
Public is right at 70% all on New Orleans. The line hasn't moved at all. Huh.

New York M/L @ Boston (+174) - Pinnacle
Public is right at 65% or so on Boston according to wagerline. These two teams are bad; no doubt about it. However, I think they're equally bad, to the point where one team wins just as much as the other. Ergo, I'm taking New York for the +EV.

Charlotte +8.5 @ Detroit (-105) - BetTrojan
This comes courtesy of a handicapper that I hold in high esteem. Also, Pinnacle doesn't seem to want any Charlotte action, hanging a +8.5 (-112) while the rest of the books are hanging a Charlotte +8.5 (-110). And they've been doing it for awhile (not one of those last minute Pinnacle leans which I'm starting to think aren't leans at all). Food for thought.

New Jersey M/L @ Phoenix (+227.36)
Public is on Phoenix at right aroudn 65% to 70%. Line moves from -6.5 to -6, and I'm actually showing two books now at -5.5. Huh. Just 'throwing it out there'.


~~~
Also, as an aside, I've done some more research into what I've been doing, seeing just how often the spread matter when it comes to NBA basketball betting. Last year, the points mattered in just about 12% of the games. For the rest, either the favorite covered when it won or the dog won when it covered. So, I guess it's just been a little bit of a rocky patch. Y'all out there: remember to remind me to keep the faith next time rather than jumping off just in time for the system to rebound again (like Wednesday). Please?

However, I have decided NOT to fade the following teams on the M/L. They've wrecked the curve unmercilessly for the past two years, winning a shitload of games that they did not cover: Dallas, Detroit, San Antonio. I mean, DAMN.

Unfortunately, I faded Dallas right in the middle of their fun little 7 game winning streak, leading lots of well...hemorrhaging. Oh well; what's done is done. Just thought I'd throw this out there for y'all.

[ensign_lee]

5-5 on the night, but thanks to the dogs, +money! And way to suck Charlotte...lose by a freaking half a point.

YTD: 35-34
Units won: 15.82

[ensign_lee]

Allrighty, boys. On to Saturday.

Portland M/L @ Sacramento (+254.8) - Matchbook
There sure are a LOOOOT of people on Sacramento (more than 70%) with no line move in sight! Well, well, well.

And here are the totals that are coming from another handicapper:
Atlanta/Orlando OVER 190 (-110) - Skybook
Memphis/Houston OVER 178.5 (-104) - Pinnacle
Boston/Milwaukee UNDER 207.5 (-103) - Pinnacle

And this comes from a handicapper that I respect:
Miami Moneyline @ Charlotte (+140) - Pinnacle
Well, actually he took Miami +3, but you know how I hate taking points when I can take the winner!

And one more from another handicapper that I respect:
Miami/Charlotte OVER 185 (-110) - Skybook

I'm looking at the Utah/Golden State game: line has moved from having Golden State as the favorite to Utah as the favorite on public money, which is usually a gigantic red flag for me. However, not so when it does so because of injury information, which it looks like it might be: I'm researching that now.

[bigred]

Hello, I'd like to put $2 on the mighty ducks. Goldberg is starting.

[ensign_lee]

Hello, I'd like to put $2 on the mighty ducks. Goldberg is starting.

Let me start off by saying I know little to nothing about the NBA. Really...like diddly squat.

Who the heck is Goldberg? What team?

[ensign_lee]

Allrighty:

The Golden State play is a go. I can't find anything supporthing more injuries than there were this morning when the line was still Golden State -2.5. And there are just TONS of people on Utah.

Ergo, play on Golden State.

Golden State +1 (+105) - Bodog
I know I know. Why not the moneyline? Well, in this case, the +1 is at (+105) and the moneyline is at (+102). Ergo, I get the point and better juice. Yay square shops.

[bigred]

Hello, I'd like to put $2 on the mighty ducks. Goldberg is starting.

Let me start off by saying I know little to nothing about the NBA. Really...like diddly squat.

Who the heck is Goldberg? What team?

HAHAHAHAHAHAH

QUACK....QUACK....QUACK

[ensign_lee]

I'm dumb...

That was a great movie.

[ensign_lee]

Been a little busy lately, so I'll have to update my record from the previous night a little later.

For Sunday, I have the following:

Portland Moneyline vs. Phoenix (+230) - Skybook
The public is on Phoenix at around 70%, and yet the line hasn't budged. Pinny seems to be laying a trap here, giving away a -6 while everyone else is giving out a -6.5. If you try to buy your half point on Phoenix up to +6.5, it costs (-117)!!!

I'll take the moneyline here, thanks.

New Jersey M/L @ LA Lakers (+170.52) - Matchbook
Majority of bets are coming in on the Lakers, coming in at right around 67-68% or so, and the line has moved from LA -5 to LA -4.5. Wha???

Seattle +4.5 vs. San Antonio (-105) - BetTrojan
The line started out at either SA -5 or SA -5.5, depending on your book, and has now gone to SA -4.5. All the while, bets have been coming in on San Antonio at right around a 70% clip. Huh...well...that's good enough for me. Go Seattle!

Portland/Phoenix UNDER 207 (-104.08) - Matchbook
Got this from another handicapper: the same one that's been feeding me totals for a little bit now (even though he did go 0-3 last night blech). Stands to reason that if Portland were to win this, they weren't going to win a shootout. So...here we go.

Allrighty then; let's get to it!

{edited 'cause a moron and put the nets up twice}

[ensign_lee]

OWIE OWIE OWW!!!
0-4 on the night it looks like. Well...that sucks...

[bigspenda73]

I know the Nets are good and all, but beating both the Lakers and the Spurs in the same night? Damn, didn't know the NBA had doubleheaders.

[ensign_lee]

I know the Nets are good and all, but beating both the Lakers and the Spurs in the same night? Damn, didn't know the NBA had doubleheaders.

Fixed. Thanks 8)

[ensign_lee]

I know I'm a lazy ass and still need to update my record from the previous few nights, but life's gotten a little busy. I promise, I'll put it up. Hovering at right under 50% now, and thinking about forgetting the totals form that handicapper. Yay losing 4 units...

For tonight, I have:

Golden State Moneyline vs. San Antonio (+163) - Pinnacle
Once again, I'm going with the FTR idea that favorites on back to back games don't do well, and therefore fading them is +EV. Plus, for every bet there is on Golden State, there seems to be 2 on San Antonio, but the line moves from SA -4.5 to SA -4 or SA-3.5, depending on your book. Just 'throwing it out there.'

Side note: Oh shit...this is San Antonio. I'm supposed to be taking them on the spread instead of the M/L. Oh well; too late. Bet stands.

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 39-42
Units won: 11.37
Spread Difference Factor: 4 games

Woohoo San Antonio.

[ensign_lee]

For Tuesday, I've got one so far after mulling over the openers:

Minnesota +8.5 @ Houston (-105) - Pinnacle
Fade Houston at Home. Follow Houston on the Road. The philosophy is simple.

If you've ever been to a Rockets home game, you'd know where this comes from. Houston's home court advantage is absolutely abysmal; in fact, if they're floundering, you could even say that they have a home court dis-advantage. WTF? Way to suck Houston fans.

Therefore, there is value in the extra points that visiting teams to Toyota get when they come in. Conversely, there is value in the fewer points the Rockets have to lay on the road (or in the more points they get on the road as underdogs), because the Rockets aren't phased at all by being on the road.

The fact that it follows the pick of a handicapper that I respect is also a nice bonus.

[ensign_lee]

I'm also adding

Charlotte +8.5 @ New Jersey
This pick comes from another handicapper. It also helps that hte public is slightly on it, with every 2 bets on Charlotte being countered by 3 bets on New Jersey.

Slow night tonight in the NBA, it looks like.

[ensign_lee]

and

Toronto Moneyline @ New Orleans(+170)
The public is on New Jersey at around one bet on Toronto for every two bets on New Jersey. But the line has moved from 5 to 4.5 ; well well well.

{edited because it seems like I seem to make my opponent the Nets every week}

[ensign_lee]

On second thought, Pinny really doesn't seem to want any Houston money at all, laying a -112 out there while everyone else has a -110. I guess I'm going to need to reverse this bet then, and lose the juice.

undoing the Minnesota +8.5 bet

[zook]

and

Toronto Moneyline @ New Jersey (+170)
The public is on New Jersey at around one bet on Toronto for every two bets on New Jersey. But the line has moved from 5 to 4.5 ; well well well.

You mean New Orleans?

[ensign_lee]

and

Toronto Moneyline @ New Jersey (+170)
The public is on New Jersey at around one bet on Toronto for every two bets on New Jersey. But the line has moved from 5 to 4.5 ; well well well.

You mean New Orleans?

Fixed.

[ensign_lee]

Portland Moneyline vs. Indiana (+108) - Pinnacle
More bets on Indiana, and yet line moves from IND -2.5 to IND -1.5. I'll take Portland; they've been good to me.

[ensign_lee]

Aww...dammit.

I knew I should have stuck with my system and taken only dogs on the moneyline (except for Detroit, San Antonio, and Dallas...and maybe Houston).

Shot myself in the foot for two units by taking Charlotte +7.5 istead of Charlotte moneyline. Oh well.

And looks like Pinny's line was pretty damn sharp; fell within one of the line. I ate the juice on that one to hedge my risk (and I'd do it again with Pinny hanging -112 on Houston -8.5), but hey...'that's the way the cookie crumbles' .

Tuesday Night: 2-1
Units won: 1.70

YTD: 41-43
Units won: 13.07
Spread Difference Factor: 4 games

[ensign_lee]

For Wednesday:

Charlotte Bobcats Moneyline @ Atlanta (+160) - Skybook
Pinnacle is hanging a -3.5 for everyone to have while everyone else is hanging a -4, seeming to try to attract Atlanta money. Plus, the public is slightly on Atlanta, but the line has dropped from -4.5 to -4 (or -3.5 in Pinnacle's case). Good enough for me.

[zook]

I like the other side of this, but good luck to you.

[ensign_lee]

Also, I'm adding for Wednesday:

Houston Moneyline @ Phoenix (+251) - Pinnacle
The injury to T-mac drove this line up. But Phoenix may be without two of their starters as well, so I think that'll even it out. Plus, the public's on Phoenix at the mount around a torrid 70%. And what's happened? After the T-Mac injury, the line went from -7.5 to -7 (7 actually being a prime number in the NBA).

This also falls into "follow Houston on the road, fade Houston at home" theory that I think has merit.

And zook: dammit. Why'd you do that?

[zook]

And zook: dammit. Why'd you do that?

Thought I'd give you a chance to hop off of it. Bad form? Cats recovered from their horrid start, only down 3 at the end of the 1Q...

edit: Like your Houston play though, I'm on that too. Go Rockets!

[ensign_lee]

I was just ribbing you, zook.

I can't tell who the hell opened up as a favorite for the San Antonio/Utah game. Pinnacle opened it as Utah -1.5 around midnight. TheGreek opened it around San Antonio -1.5 at around 10:00 AM. And it looks like Cris debuted it as pk.

I'm gonna go with Pinnacle's opener of Utah -1.5. In that case, it looks as though the public has moved the game from Utah -1.5 to Utah +1, crossing the zero, which captures my eye. Plus, 70% or so of the public is on San Antonio.

Ergo, take Utah. But...not just Utah +1 or Utah Moneyline. No: I'm selling two points and taking Utah -1 (+111).

Utah -1 (+111) vs. San Antonio
There ya go.

[zook]

Nice Utah pick and way to sell a couple points and make a profit on the night!

[ensign_lee]

Record Update:

Wednesday Night: 1-2
Units won: -.89

YTD: 42-45
Units won: 12.18
Spread Difference Factor: 4 games

[zook]

Oops, missed the one that wasn't in bold Still, nice Utah call and nice season so far!