11-07-2016 05:21 PM
#3376
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11-07-2016 05:44 PM
#3377
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If the shy Trump effect is real, who's to say there isn't an equal shy Clinton effect? It might be hard to imagine from overseas, but people are no-more loud-and-proud about Hillary as they are about Trump. I live in a deep blue county and there are far more Trump signs than Clinton signs. If a polling service calls Judy in Jesusville, North Carolina who lives in a staunch pro-life, pro-guns family but can't stomach Trump's comments on women, then who's to say she's not going to whisper into the receiver, "I'm not sure yet," and then take a Clinton vote to her grave? | |
11-07-2016 06:04 PM
#3378
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Meh, I'm confident in a landslide victory at least as much as I'm worried about a Trump victory. I'd probably put it at close to 50% chance Hillary castrates Trump, 30% chance Trump wins (since the Comey absolution seems to be having a more immediate normalizing effect than I would have guessed), with the remaining 20% chance that it's a close Clinton win. | |
11-07-2016 06:06 PM
#3379
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Now, after months of a successful self-ban from this thread, I await the inevitable regret that will come with joining in. | |
11-07-2016 06:27 PM
#3380
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Voting tomorrow. | |
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11-07-2016 09:35 PM
#3381
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The Shy Clinton effect is real. Both candidates are among the most unpopular we've ever seen. IIRC, they might be exactly the most unpopular we've ever seen. | |
11-07-2016 09:36 PM
#3382
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Perhaps this will be Wuf's new avatar? | |
11-07-2016 10:16 PM
#3383
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It's posts like these that make me look at the screen sideways: | |
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11-07-2016 10:51 PM
#3384
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Can someone link me to some sites with decent live coverage of what's going on? UK news sites are awful. |
11-07-2016 11:03 PM
#3385
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11-08-2016 04:28 AM
#3386
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Vietnam is 11 hours ahead so the election should be getting to the good stuff as I wake up tomorrow. I'm not sure I will sleep. | |
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11-08-2016 04:31 AM
#3387
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11-08-2016 10:05 AM
#3388
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Context? Posts like this are in the very least thought provoking. Maybe he's stretching it, but I think his point about alcoholism being social acceptable to the extent that nearly no one is objective about the impacts it has on our lives-- it's thought provoking. But, yeah, without context I think it's an interesting angle to take, and I have no clue who is the alleged alcoholic, and therefore don't know who the implied critique is aimed at. | |
11-08-2016 10:07 AM
#3389
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11-08-2016 10:15 AM
#3390
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Haha, yeah, he's either trolling or off his rocker. | |
11-08-2016 10:16 AM
#3391
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Yeah, the more I read it the more I'm like...he's fucking around, right? | |
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11-08-2016 10:54 AM
#3392
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If it's true.... | |
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11-08-2016 12:52 PM
#3393
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I mean it's totally subjective though isn't it? Trump risk #2 is a perfect example: "Might go nuts" (risk of 2 relative to a 10 for Hillary's 'drinks alcohol'). Go nuts? What is the risk if you think he already is nuts? 3? 30? 300? | |
11-08-2016 02:30 PM
#3394
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I believe that trump is more likely to win the election, build a wall, and have mexico pay for it than the probability of him never drinking alcohol. | |
11-08-2016 02:55 PM
#3395
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Favorite election pic so far: | |
Last edited by Poopadoop; 11-08-2016 at 02:58 PM. | |
11-08-2016 10:03 PM
#3396
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Why is this thread silent? | |
11-08-2016 10:06 PM
#3397
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This is terrifying. | |
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11-08-2016 10:10 PM
#3398
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Ok, I had Hill to win Florida. This is looking less decided and predictable than I decided to predict. | |
11-08-2016 10:15 PM
#3399
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Definitely not going to be a decisive victory. | |
Last edited by surviva316; 11-08-2016 at 10:21 PM. | |
11-08-2016 10:16 PM
#3400
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It's not over yet, but the fact that it is this close, no matter what happens, things aren't going to be normal going forward. Clinton really needed a solid win, if not a landslide for things to regress to the norm. | |
11-08-2016 10:18 PM
#3401
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If you extrapolate the votes by county for the ones that haven't been counted yet, Clinton wins NC, but loses Florida. | |
11-08-2016 10:28 PM
#3402
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Just eyeballing, but based on which counties have votes left to count, Virginia and PA both look pretty safe. | |
11-08-2016 10:33 PM
#3403
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Eyeballing again, but Wisconsin looks bad. Most of the votes in Milwaukee already counted. | |
11-08-2016 10:48 PM
#3404
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I think Trump will need Arizona + either Nevada or Iowa to win. | |
11-08-2016 10:52 PM
#3405
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North Carolina looked good for Hillary for a long time and VA looked--at best--like a nailbiter, but turned out going the exact other way. Now VA's been called with 15% of the vote left to count and NC's looking out of reach. Guess that's why they don't pay me the big bucks. | |
11-08-2016 11:18 PM
#3406
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Oh fuck they gave him N. Carolina? I think he's won it all... | |
11-08-2016 11:22 PM
#3407
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It's all about the midwest. Apparently the midwest just fucking loves him. White people just eat him up like candy. He even won white women by double digits. | |
11-08-2016 11:25 PM
#3408
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11-08-2016 11:30 PM
#3409
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Michigan close again. Why are they so fucking slow to count? I thought their polls closed hours ago. | |
11-08-2016 11:31 PM
#3410
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11-08-2016 11:52 PM
#3411
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SJW tears incoming | |
11-08-2016 11:56 PM
#3412
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Well, I finally got the answer to my question, I guess: | |
11-08-2016 11:57 PM
#3413
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11-09-2016 12:04 AM
#3414
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Why is this election so close? THIS IS WHAT YOU GET FOR NOT GOING BERNIE | |
11-09-2016 12:07 AM
#3415
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It's not that close. It was basically called for Trump hours ago. | |
11-09-2016 12:11 AM
#3416
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@Surviva, agreed. The non-college educated women votes turned this election. | |
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11-09-2016 12:13 AM
#3417
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Ugh, it's bad enough I'm going to have to deal with Trump on the TV for the next four years. Wuf actually being correct about something is the cherry on top. | |
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11-09-2016 12:21 AM
#3418
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She has to win every flip that's left. I tend to think she has PA, despite the recent flip to Trump's favor, just because there's 300k worth of margin left to be counted in Allegheny (but see my gaffe in NC, so who knows). NH is like 7 votes apart. She's gaining in MI and for the moment, has the lead in NV (but haven't checked the precinct map). | |
Last edited by surviva316; 11-09-2016 at 12:24 AM. | |
11-09-2016 12:23 AM
#3419
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11-09-2016 12:30 AM
#3420
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I know I'm not breaking news here, but Michigan continues to look bad for Clinton. She basically only has Washtenaw county (home of Ann Arbor) left to outpace, not only a 30k deficit, but some red upstate counties. That's the one "flip" that seems notably worse than a flip. | |
11-09-2016 12:44 AM
#3421
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I hope my avatar is cool | |
11-09-2016 01:11 AM
#3422
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Well, recreational weed is legal in Vegas, so, there's that at least... | |
11-09-2016 01:31 AM
#3423
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Oh my fucking God. You guys are even fucking bigger idiots than we are. This would be hilarious if it wasn't utterly terrifying. | |
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11-09-2016 01:58 AM
#3424
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11-09-2016 02:10 AM
#3425
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I thought we'd outdone you with Brexit, but then you played your trump card. | |
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11-09-2016 02:11 AM
#3426
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Democracy ain't all its cracked up to be. | |
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11-09-2016 02:11 AM
#3427
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inb4 nothing of any real note happens over the next 4 years. |
11-09-2016 02:15 AM
#3428
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How long does it take to build a giant wall? | |
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11-09-2016 02:22 AM
#3429
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11-09-2016 02:30 AM
#3430
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so when i wake up will america be great again? | |
11-09-2016 02:38 AM
#3431
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11-09-2016 03:26 AM
#3432
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I was hoping to catch wuf's victory speech before bed. | |
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11-09-2016 03:51 AM
#3433
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11-09-2016 04:07 AM
#3434
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I'm not powerful but I am disaffected, yet I still fail to see the logic. Nor am I laughing. | |
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11-09-2016 04:13 AM
#3435
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I guess it's similar to brexit. A lot of people aren't happy with the status quo and see one option as sticking with the tried and tested that they feel has failed them so far, and the other as something different that might shake things up a bit. | |
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11-09-2016 04:20 AM
#3436
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Do you know what disaffected means? | |
11-09-2016 04:31 AM
#3437
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It's logical for sure. People are looking for something different to the norm, plus they falsely think it will solve the problems in their own lives. I was only saying last night that, assuming Clinton wins, Trump's near miss and Brexit should make politicians sit up and take note of the sheer volume of people disaffected with politics. The fact that they are willing to vote for somebody as idiotic as Trump just screams desperation. | |
11-09-2016 04:45 AM
#3438
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Seems like an independent candidate really missed an opportunity this year. But I guess there's just too many people that will vote Dem or Rep no matter who the candidate is? | |
11-09-2016 04:52 AM
#3439
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You can blame the DNC for that. Bernie Sanders was exactly that independent candidate, and he would have smoked Trump. Even Joe Biden would have won this election in a landslide. I think one decent thing that may come out of this trash fire of an election is a fundamental restructuring of how the primaries are run, by both parties. | |
11-09-2016 05:28 AM
#3440
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11-09-2016 05:30 AM
#3441
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11-09-2016 05:54 AM
#3442
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My god, wuf was right | |
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11-09-2016 06:00 AM
#3443
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Looks like Trump will barely win the popular vote. About 150k advantage at this time. | |
11-09-2016 06:44 AM
#3444
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When Putin congratulates you, you've fucked up. | |
11-09-2016 06:51 AM
#3445
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This is an interesting read. Very much reminds me of the situation in the UK and brexit. No idea how true or relevant it is, but I imagine it's pretty on point. | |
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11-09-2016 10:17 AM
#3446
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The FBI totally fucked Clinton. I bet she would have won if not for that Wiener shit. | |
11-09-2016 12:43 PM
#3447
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11-09-2016 02:14 PM
#3448
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11-09-2016 02:38 PM
#3449
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This is it in a nutshell. Everything Joe the Steelworker was worried about might be the case for Clinton was even more worrisome for Trump. People are worried about cronyism and corruption in a Clinton presidency; Trump has a plethora of conflicting business and political interests and was the first candidate in over 40 years to not release his tax returns so we could see what those might be. Clinton's accused of being funded with dirty money; Trump's own foundation isn't even a licensed and audited entity and investigative reporting reveals he'd been using it for his own personal and corporate use. Clinton is a grandma who mishandled classified information by checking emails on a personal device; Trump has so little self control his campaign manager has to change his Twitter password in 48 hours before the election. Clinton is a ruthless, two-faced political machine; Trump is a solipsistic billionaire who prides himself on his shrewd business tactics of pumping and dumping, scamming small business owners, and exploiting blue-collar employees (again, all verified fact). | |
11-09-2016 02:47 PM
#3450
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Everything started to normalize after Comey's absolution, and it looked like if given enough time to get more post-Comey data, things would have been back to how they were. | |