**** Elections thread *****

[wufwugy]

His numbers hit mid-thirties real fast and haven't budged. It's looking like it's possible his open primary numbers are mid-low thirties and closed primary numbers are twenties.

Cruz is still the only player to consistently outperform his polls, by ~3-5%. Lots of western closed primary states may be going to Cruz.

[JKDS]

No republican nominee has ever lost the primary after winning both NH and SC.

[wufwugy]

There's always a first.

The reason that history exists is because the candidates embodied certain characteristic. The wins came along for the ride; they weren't deterministic.

Or if you like sticking to patterns, in the last several cycles, NH and SC each diverged wildly from historical trends.

[a500lbgorilla]

Found this interesting talking about the comparison between Trump and Berlusconi

The similarities go well beyond what /u/Vaernil pointed out: a billionaire coming from outside the political system (at a time in which the political system is weak due to its own shortcomings, rampant corruption, disconnect from the people), a man who speaks straight (unlike standard politicians), who can get around the opposition of the political establishment because he can pay for his own campaign, who can claim he won't be corrupt like all other candidates because he's rich already so what would be the point, who can claim that — being a successful businessman — he knows how to make economy work again, who can use pretend-humor to say things which are normally unacceptable in politics (always claiming that he's been misquoted or misinterpreted or that he was exaggerating, all the while appealing to those people which actually want to hear that kind of politically-incorrect stuff). A man with rude but brilliant communication abilities which no one in the establishment really knows how to deal with.Yes they are different people in different countries at different times. But let me tell you: they are exactly the same type of political phenomenon. Looking at what Berlusconi has done to Italy, it really is scary. Berlusconi's damage was limited to Italy and to some minor extent Europe, the same kind of thing in the US would be an epic disaster.

To clarify: the trouble with Berlusconi was not the Bunga-bunga parties he became famous for. It was the systematic attempt at the destruction of the rules of the country to bend them for his own and his close friend's personal gain. It was a disaster for the economy, the judiciary system, the political system (e.g. he changed the electoral law for his own advantage — the law was later repealed by Italy's Supreme Court but in the meanwhile had already been used, and the repeal left a mess anyway, and this is just one example among dozens).


Berlusconi fooled a lot of people, even smart people, when he "descended into the arena" (as he put it). When he got in power and showed his true face it was already too late, it took 20 years for him to lose his grip on Italy.

TL;DR: I was there, I remember it and can draw the comparison, Trump is following the steps of 1994 Berlusconi almost exactly. Berlusconi was a disaster and very hard to get rid of.

https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comm...9cqj?context=2

[wufwugy]

Let's hope the GOPe (establishment) realizes this when, after the SEC votes, Rubio has taken 0-1 states and Cruz has taken several, so they can reluctantly support Cruz against Trump.

[wufwugy]

Word is going around among legit conservative insiders that the RNC inside intends on this reaching a brokered convention and then changing the rules to whatever they way to keep Trump and Cruz out. They've already changed some (tripled their unbound delegates in secret).

They don't want Trump for the obvious disaster reasons, and they are scared shitless of Cruz since a Cruz nomination will put to bed the faux idea for a generation that conservatives can't win elections.. The GOPe bureaucracy can't be having that.

[JKDS]

Rigging elections, le gasp.

All I can say is FEEL THE BERN.

[a500lbgorilla]

Rigging elections, le gasp.

All I can say is FEEL THE BERN.

#GetRigged

Hillary is gonna walk from here on out.

[wufwugy]

From Sumner's AMA, response to Sanders' economic policy

Indeed the Democratic economists greatly underestimated the problems with his policies, as we know that European welfare states have GDP/person 25% lower than the US, if not more. So the problem is not Sander's unrealistic claim that growth would speed up to 5.3%, it's that GDP would plunge massively lower if his plans were implemented.

[JKDS]

http://i.imgur.com/UTLttnx.gifv

[JKDS]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...3e8_story.html

Good article. What's happening is something common when good lawyers fight each other. You turn the other persons theme against them, undermining everything about it. Ordinarily, your theme causes recall, makes ppl think of the message, and associates your case with the theme. But if you can undermine it, give it a second or alterior meaning, then the entire thing backfires and turns into a game of which interpretation makes more sense.

With TrusTed, undermining it with constant accusations of lying makes ppl rethink this message. The big problem with trust is that it's hard to build, harder to maintain, but easy to lose. So Trump's "liar liar" is likely going to work. Especially since the natural reaction to someone when they say to "trust them" is to not trust them.

[wufwugy]

http://i.imgur.com/UTLttnx.gifv

I have serious love in my heart for this.

[wufwugy]

People think Cruz looks smarmy, ratty, oleaginous; I think he looks kind and considerate.

[wufwugy]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...3e8_story.html

Good article. What's happening is something common when good lawyers fight each other. You turn the other persons theme against them, undermining everything about it. Ordinarily, your theme causes recall, makes ppl think of the message, and associates your case with the theme. But if you can undermine it, give it a second or alterior meaning, then the entire thing backfires and turns into a game of which interpretation makes more sense.

With TrusTed, undermining it with constant accusations of lying makes ppl rethink this message. The big problem with trust is that it's hard to build, harder to maintain, but easy to lose. So Trump's "liar liar" is likely going to work. Especially since the natural reaction to someone when they say to "trust them" is to not trust them.

True. However, I don't think this strategy would be effective if Cruz used the right counter. I agree with the major conservative bloggers who have spent the last couple days calling for Cruz return to his old inspirational ways. I don't think it's quite because of the "liar" attacks that Cruz dropped in SC, but because his responses to that have made his message different than why people flock to him in the first place. Granted, he probably can't achieve a Reagan level of inspirational. The NY media never discusses the heart of Reagan and thus deride Cruz's attempt to reunite the Reagan coalition, but all you have to do is listen to some of Reagan's better speeches, and you'll see how this guy turned many millions of non-conservatives into conservatives. Obama's best speeches don't compare to the best I've heard from Reagan IMO.

[wufwugy]

Basically, to win, at tomorrow's debate, Cruz needs to stomp Trump with 20% of his time then use the remaining 80% on exclaiming the American revival. Which is pretty much what Rubio has done at every debate. Cruz needs to step a little bit out of that academic debate slash lawyer courtroom speak. Loads of people really like Cruz yet aren't voting for him because they see him as unelectable, and they believe that because Cruz doesn't inspire them. If Cruz can change that one thing, he'd take like 40% of Rubio's votes and 15% of Trump's, and win the nomination.

[wufwugy]

Of course, it's probably too late for that. The strategy would have worked if he started it before Iowa. Maybe now he really has to go for broke and unleash the dogs on Trump unlike anybody expects. I'm not sure that would work though. I know it wouldn't work to go after Rubio. He needs to avoid Rubio. No conservatives are voting for Rubio because they think he's a better conservative than Cruz, and they all get soured by this spat. It's a shame that Rubio has taken the low road and I hate his guts for it, but many look past substance and embrace style.

[JKDS]

People think Cruz looks smarmy, ratty, oleaginous; I think he looks kind and considerate.

He looks like the former to me. The only one who comes off as kind to me tho is Sanders. He the only that seems to be doing this for reasons other than ego

[wufwugy]

Sanders is easily grumpy. Easily. Motives are a different thing. Presentation is grumpy.

[JKDS]

Ya, but its in a "get off my lawn" cutesy sort of way.

*Oh look, a distraction!*

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/25/up...tion.html?_r=0

[JKDS]

[wufwugy]

What keeps Kasich in the race? Lack of integrity.

[wufwugy]

Granted that's the reason everybody not named Cruz (and probably Sanders) is in the race.

[spoonitnow]

Integrity is over-rated.

[FeliciaLee]

People think Cruz looks smarmy, ratty, oleaginous; I think he looks kind and considerate.

Ditto.

Cruz2016

[JKDS]

I figured it out. It's his smile, his posing smile. That's what gets me. I googled a bunch of pics of him, and a lot do look sincere, kind, etc. But his smile just screams fake, insincere rat.

[FeliciaLee]

I figured it out. It's his smile, his posing smile. That's what gets me. I googled a bunch of pics of him, and a lot do look sincere, kind, etc. But his smile just screams fake, insincere rat.

I followed his record first. Guess I got lucky that way. He basically has done everything he promised to do while running for Congress. He definitely has a different look, which I'm sure hurts him with some who haven't checked out his past.

[a500lbgorilla]

The presidency will see him age nicely into some great jowls.

[wufwugy]

I followed his record first. Guess I got lucky that way. He basically has done everything he promised to do while running for Congress. He definitely has a different look, which I'm sure hurts him with some who haven't checked out his past.

Let's hope Titanium Ted turns into Super Tuesday Terrific Turnout Ted.

[wufwugy]

If Trump doesn't flounder in this debate and if Cruz doesn't obliterate, I think Trump probably takes the nomination >80%. IIRC the RNC is capable of and is sorta prepping to change the nomination rules, so Trump could be rejected on that alone.

[wufwugy]

It should also be noted that by now, the only person who can beat him outright is Cruz (and only if Cruz runs on all cylinders). If Cruz drops out, Trump still beats Rubio.

Of course, the GOPe is totally fine with this since they hate conservatives who don't let them sell taxpayers down the river in secret. The worst sin Cruz ever committed in the eyes of the GOPe is standing up against totalitarianism and weakness in his own party.

[wufwugy]

On Tuesday, Cruz will win Texas. He has good possibility to win Oklahoma and Arkansas and maybe Tennessee. Then it depends on how Wyoming, Colorado, North Dakota, Alaska and Alabama are like. With a weakened Trump and a strong Cruz, Cruz probably wins all of those (a big if, though). But we really have no clue how the Mountain and Plains West think about these things. It's assumed that OK AK and TN are close-ish to Texas.

Shame on Rubio. For being a shithead who lies to advance his own egomania, and by doing so has allowed a Big Authoritarian national socialist to get this far.

[wufwugy]

A silver lining is that if Cruz wins Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas on Super Tuesday (while Rubio wins nothing because he will always wins nothing), then conservatives are gonna jump ship and get on Cruz. This new Marcomentum is just because they think Cruz can't beat Trump but Rubio can. If it is demonstrated that Rubio can't but Cruz is on pace, it'll come to a halt pretty quickly.

[wufwugy]

Trump's best debate. It's hard to see him losing the nomination. He'd only do it due to serious loyalty to principles from voters. Which uhhhhhhhhhhhh ain't gonna happen.

[JKDS]

Trump will not lose unless it becomes a two person race. Even then, hes got a ton of momentum. "We dont win anymore" plays really well with "look at cruz/rubio/carson/kasich, they lose. Theyre part of the reason why we dont win anymore. Look at me, I win."

They gotta wheel and deal and promise VP or something, else its Trump takes all.

Also, the GOP wont dare swindle this away from Trump by changing the rules. The fear that he'll run in spite of that is too great.

[wufwugy]

I'm not sure if the laws allow him to defect and run at this point. I haven't a definitive answer, but some somewhat reliable (somewhat) sources have stated that Trump 3rd partying it is a non-issue due to some of the "sore loser" laws in some states (like Ohio) that wouldn't allow him to run. I've also heard that those laws are weak and won't hold up to pressure.

I'm unsure of the degree to which the RNC will wheel and deal. They certainly would to a degree. That's why Democrats created so many superdelegates for themselves, so they can deliberately stop somebody they do not want even if that person gets >50%. The RNC is no different. It can't be done just willy nilly though.

[wufwugy]

It's funny, Trump's worst moment was his defense of his healthcare plan. Yet, um, he was kinda sorta right, and it's one of the few times he has been substantively kinda sorta right. Rubio's plan isn't that great, and by far the best part of the elements he mentioned on stage is just cutting down the borders for competition, which was Trump's entire plan. Cruz's is still better all around, but he didn't get to discuss it this time. Rubio's is better than Obamacare by a lot, but he needs to drop the subsidy. That will keep costs way too high.

I had a wee bit of sympathy for Trump in that moment. It's hard to convincingly articulate how freedom and competition solves problems. People want mandates, they want will, they want primary movers, not hard to understand physical and social realities.

[wufwugy]

The moderator was a total joke. Blitzer is responsible for halting the two most important moments of the whole debate and changing the subject just as the candidates were digging into the flesh.

They need to branch out with these debates. They need moderators that don't think of themselves as stars. They need to allow the candidates greater reign to throw down. Trump was on the verge of getting truly wrecked before Blitzer put an end to it. Twice.

[FeliciaLee]

A silver lining is that if Cruz wins Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas on Super Tuesday (while Rubio wins nothing because he will always wins nothing), then conservatives are gonna jump ship and get on Cruz. This new Marcomentum is just because they think Cruz can't beat Trump but Rubio can. If it is demonstrated that Rubio can't but Cruz is on pace, it'll come to a halt pretty quickly.

Your mouth to God's ear!

[FeliciaLee]

Trump's best debate. It's hard to see him losing the nomination. He'd only do it due to serious loyalty to principles from voters. Which uhhhhhhhhhhhh ain't gonna happen.

IDK, I think Marco had the best of it. Early stumble, but then he seemed to be getting the better of Trump and tag teaming with Cruz to expose Trump's lack of substance.

[Renton]

Primary election is over. 97% chance of trump, 99% chance of hillary. Accept facts and move on.

[wufwugy]

IDK, I think Marco had the best of it. Early stumble, but then he seemed to be getting the better of Trump and tag teaming with Cruz to expose Trump's lack of substance.

I accept I'm pretty bad at assessing aftermath of debates. At least these debates. I think it has something to do with that Trump lost pretty much all of them on substance yet came out the winner for whatever style reasons. So I figured the only way he could lose is stylistically, and in this debate he was pretty boss stylistically. But it seems the conservative and pro-Trump crowds both think Trump didn't do so hot and Rubio and Cruz both crushed him.

[wufwugy]

Primary election is over. 97% chance of trump, 99% chance of hillary. Accept facts and move on.

I can easily give several plausible scenarios with >0% of probability that would result in Trump losing. Rubio or Cruz taking the nomination is still drawing at least 25%, and it could be >50% if we had better information. For example, if we had information that if one of Cruz or Rubio don't win any states on Super Tuesday, he will drop out and endorse the other, Trump's equity drops below 50%.

[wufwugy]

One of several not unlikely scenarios: Cruz wins Texas and maybe a few others. Rubio loses Florida and every other. At that point, Rubio exits and endorses Cruz. Trump would then be in a world of hurt. Granted he could still win since by then many pro-Cruz states would have already happened. But Cruz has a strong delegate game. He would pick up more delegates in the races he takes second than Trump would in the races he takes second.

So much of this boils down to Cruz's Super Tuesday strategy working: winning Texas by enough that he gets a load of delegates, and having a strong delegate game in Georgia even through a non-first finish. He's not playing to win that many states. He's only going to Oklahoma and Tennessee once each between now and the election. Everything else is Texas and Georgia.

[FeliciaLee]

One of several not unlikely scenarios: Cruz wins Texas and maybe a few others. Rubio loses Florida and every other. At that point, Rubio exits and endorses Cruz. Trump would then be in a world of hurt. Granted he could still win since by then many pro-Cruz states would have already happened. But Cruz has a strong delegate game. He would pick up more delegates in the races he takes second than Trump would in the races he takes second.

So much of this boils down to Cruz's Super Tuesday strategy working: winning Texas by enough that he gets a load of delegates, and having a strong delegate game in Georgia even through a non-first finish. He's not playing to win that many states. He's only going to Oklahoma and Tennessee once each between now and the election. Everything else is Texas and Georgia.

I am waiting for Texas. I believe Cruz has to win or it's over for him.

[wufwugy]

Oh yeah if Cruz loses Texas he needs to drop out the next day.

[Renton]

wufwugy, you're delusional. Polling and forecasting has come a long way in recent years. Barring some act of god, Trump is the nominee. I could offer you $2000 to $250, and I still would have way the best of it.

[Renton]

Also there is no way that cruz or rubio drop out. They're gonna split the hate trump vote down to the last state and neither of them will have a chance. Between them and Kasich, the GOP is committing harakiri.

[a500lbgorilla]

I could offer you $2000 to $250

Damn, I dunno if i'd take this.

[wufwugy]

Also there is no way that cruz or rubio drop out. They're gonna split the hate trump vote down to the last state and neither of them will have a chance. Between them and Kasich, the GOP is committing harakiri.

I tend to agree. Cruz won't drop out unless he drops too far (which he won't), and Rubio won't drop out because he's banking on a brokered convention. Even with this, it's possible he'll drop out if he doesn't think he can win 8 states or if he loses Florida. Still, I doubt it and I think he's going to a convention.

The race is more fluid than you think. This doesn't mean that it will end up looking something other than it does now, but there are lots of reasons it can change. Trump is highly vulnerable to being kept at 25% in most states and there is reason to believe that it could begin to happen since Rubio and Cruz are ignoring each other now. Trump has been about 10x less attacked than Cruz; numbers respond to attacks quite a lot. This notion that Trump is teflon is just not true. People mistakenly assume Trump has been attacked (when he really hasn't that much) and then assume it means attacks don't hurt him. It could be too late though, as momentum is a thing. But really small things like Rubio simply not attacking Cruz in the two weeks leading up to SC and instead attacking Trump could have easily made Cruz the nominee.

Polling hasn't come a long way. Polling is actually in a worse state today than it used to be. The Shy Tory effect has been pretty big the last few cycles and most pollsters have gotten results wildly wrong most of the time. However, the reasons for those incorrect results are bedded down more now than the most recent cycles, so today's polls are more accurate (not individually, but when there are lots and lots of them).

Poll-wise, Cruz is basically neck and neck with Trump for delegates by March 2. Poll-wise, Cruz is essentially tied with Trump in ~3 Super Tuesday states. Poll-wise, Rubio can chip away at them both and actually win a handful of NE closed primaries. If Trump doesn't go to the convention with >50% of the delegates, he does not become the nominee. This is because after the first pledged delegate vote, all delegates are free to go wherever they want, and the RNC has a significant chunk of its own delegates. The anti-Trump delegates will be a bit greater than the pro-Trump ones, and Rubio will be made the nominee.

[wufwugy]

I'd for sure take it if I wasn't a broke ass student.

[a500lbgorilla]

I'd for sure take it if I wasn't a broke ass student.

I dunno. It's almost 10 to 1, which suggest that one side is burning money.

[wufwugy]

I dunno. It's almost 10 to 1, which suggest that one side is burning money.

Indeed. That's when I think some pseudo-heuristics come into play. For example, Cruz and Rubio are two of the best politicians and campaigners around. When was the last time their pedigree was a 10/1 dog?

[wufwugy]

Damn. Hildawg is definitely not feeling dat grumpy bern. Sanders cruuuuuushed.

[wufwugy]

There's a rumor from a potentially reliable source that Cruz and Rubio struck an informal deal (during their spoken-of Nevada meeting) that involves one of them dropping out to run as the other's VP. It's been done before during a primary season, and it's probably the only way to beat Trump without a contested convention. There are a few different points this could happen at, including after today's results up to after Florida. My guess is that it would come before Florida and would involve Rubio being Cruz's VP if Cruz is within striking distance to Trump (he most likely will be) and if the polls are showing Rubio will lose Florida (they most likely will). Cruz can then win the whole thing outright in a serious barn burner. Word is that the RNC backs this plan, so it could be predicted that the establishment would come out in force to support the Cruz/Rubio ticket. Senate Republicans hate Cruz, but they be realizing that a Trump presidency will hand the WH and Senate over to the Dems.

I know Spoony loves his Trump, but the man would just be an unmitigated disaster as President. I probably wouldn't vote for Hildawg or da Bernshevik, but if it's between one of them and Trump, I'd rather one of them win. They'd get the Scalia replacement and probably a couple others and the court would become grossly anti-liberty for a generation, but Cruz would still be on the Reagan trajectory to win resoundingly in 2020. Plus a Trump presidency would kill conservatism for a generation by way of bastardized figurehead.

[Eric]

There's a rumor from a potentially reliable source that Cruz and Rubio struck an informal deal (during their spoken-of Nevada meeting) that involves one of them dropping out to run as the other's VP.

Wow, very interesting. The PPA says Rubio is bad for online poker. We'll see what happens...

[JKDS]

Cruz has 0 chance of being within striking distance. Cruz and rubio are delusional, and one needed to drop out before today

[wufwugy]

Cruz has 0 chance of being within striking distance. Cruz and rubio are delusional, and one needed to drop out before today

They both are potentially in striking distance, mostly due to the proportional nature of today's delegate allocation and due to how most of the states for the next few weeks would go to a combined Rubio-Cruz ticket. Even if Trump were to come out with >50% of the delegates after today, a Rubio/Cruz alliance would most likely keep him below that level until the bloc of NE states (in April IIRC), which could be countered by the finishing stretch of the West Coast going to his remaining opponent.

Allocation of delegates is not nearly as good as it looks for Trump. A lot of delegates today won't actually go to him even if he wins the states, and those don't include the ones that are proportioned to those who get >20% of the vote. Notice how Hillary beat Obama on votes yet still lost in delegates. Delegate accrual is weird and Trump is not as favored as it seems.

Frankly, I think it is more likely to be a Rubio/Cruz ticket if they think he could then win Florida. Rubio can probably beat Trump in some important winner-take-all states later in the cycle, but that may only work with significant Cruz backing since a solid chunk of Cruz voters do not want to support Rubio at this point.

[wufwugy]

Wow, very interesting. The PPA says Rubio is bad for online poker. We'll see what happens...

What are they citing?

[Eric]

What are they citing?

They seem to mention him a lot. Here is an excerpt from their February 26th email (underline and bold formatting are mine):

Let’s all remind anti-poker presidential candidate Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) that Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich (R) publicly opposes S. 1668, which would close state-licensed poker websites and ban new ones, on the grounds that issues like these are traditionally state decisions.

[wufwugy]

Pretty sure this is based on the polling:



Which means Trump would not be on pace for the nomination and either of Cruz or Rubio are in striking distance.

AFAIK these estimates don't account for the behavior of the non-insignificant amount of unbounded, unpledged, allocated-later-at-caucuses-and-stuff delegates.

[wufwugy]

They seem to mention him a lot. Here is an excerpt from their February 26th email (underline and bold formatting are mine):

I'd be interested in some links showing Rubio's position. Also Cruz's.

[wufwugy]

The latest poll showing that Trump has fallen a bunch relative to Clinton suggests that the late momentum is against Trump (more than it has always been in the past).

[FeliciaLee]

One of several not unlikely scenarios: Cruz wins Texas and maybe a few others. Rubio loses Florida and every other. At that point, Rubio exits and endorses Cruz. Trump would then be in a world of hurt. Granted he could still win since by then many pro-Cruz states would have already happened. But Cruz has a strong delegate game. He would pick up more delegates in the races he takes second than Trump would in the races he takes second.

So much of this boils down to Cruz's Super Tuesday strategy working: winning Texas by enough that he gets a load of delegates, and having a strong delegate game in Georgia even through a non-first finish. He's not playing to win that many states. He's only going to Oklahoma and Tennessee once each between now and the election. Everything else is Texas and Georgia.

I'd be interested in some links showing Rubio's position. Also Cruz's.

Typically true conservatives are all for online poker, but with Rubio, all bets are off.

My dad is visiting from MO and keeps assuring me that Cruz can't win. He has recently switched to Trump, oof, ignoring the pattern of tyranny. God help us.

[wufwugy]

The framers of democracy were correct when they stated that a well-functioning democracy requires diligence of knowledge and character of citizenry. Democracy is poorly functioning because we do not have that.

[FeliciaLee]

One of several not unlikely scenarios: Cruz wins Texas and maybe a few others. Rubio loses Florida and every other. At that point, Rubio exits and endorses Cruz. Trump would then be in a world of hurt. Granted he could still win since by then many pro-Cruz states would have already happened. But Cruz has a strong delegate game. He would pick up more delegates in the races he takes second than Trump would in the races he takes second.

So much of this boils down to Cruz's Super Tuesday strategy working: winning Texas by enough that he gets a load of delegates, and having a strong delegate game in Georgia even through a non-first finish. He's not playing to win that many states. He's only going to Oklahoma and Tennessee once each between now and the election. Everything else is Texas and Georgia.

The framers of democracy were correct when they stated that a well-functioning democracy requires diligence of knowledge and character of citizenry. Democracy is poorly functioning because we do not have that.

Where is the like button?

[wufwugy]

Show your dad how Trump is the last person who can possibly win. Show him how the mainstream media treats him with kid gloves while they are keeping all their aces in hiding to spring upon us after he's Hillary's opponent. Show him how Trump has lied about every single thing he has ever had an opinion on, especially his most discussed policy positions. Show him how Trump's record demonstrates that the only people who benefit from his behavior have been himself and his immediate family. Show him every disgusting thing he has done (ridiculing the disabled, forcibly removing a non-provoking group of black people from his speech, denigrating women at many turns).

Show him that the greatest legacy of a Trump presidency would not be just a bad presidency, but of the dismantling of constitutional conservative principles in the eyes of the voting public. If we were to back this petty, narcissistic demagogue just so our side can "win", we would become a part of the problem that created the Washington cartel in the first place.

[wufwugy]

It should be noted that probably the main reason Trump is so popular is because people think he can beat Hillary. She would absolutely demolish him. His polls against her are garbage. He ran away from one debate because he couldn't stand the heat, and he's threatening to run away from the remaining debates because he can't stand the heat. In the eyes of the Democratic base, he is a monster to a far greater degree that Obama is a monster in the eyes of the Republican base. Anti-Trump turnout would be off the charts. He has no attacks on Hillary since everything wrong she has done, he has done worse. Platoons of reliable constitutional conservatives will refuse to vote for him (I'm one of the them).

The silver lining of a Trump nomination is that the people who supported him will get a rude awakening after he gets obliterated and they start to rationalize why. They'll then clearly see how terrible of a person they supported.

[FeliciaLee]

One of several not unlikely scenarios: Cruz wins Texas and maybe a few others. Rubio loses Florida and every other. At that point, Rubio exits and endorses Cruz. Trump would then be in a world of hurt. Granted he could still win since by then many pro-Cruz states would have already happened. But Cruz has a strong delegate game. He would pick up more delegates in the races he takes second than Trump would in the races he takes second.

So much of this boils down to Cruz's Super Tuesday strategy working: winning Texas by enough that he gets a load of delegates, and having a strong delegate game in Georgia even through a non-first finish. He's not playing to win that many states. He's only going to Oklahoma and Tennessee once each between now and the election. Everything else is Texas and Georgia.

It should be noted that probably the main reason Trump is so popular is because people think he can beat Hillary. She would absolutely demolish him. His polls against her are garbage. He ran away from one debate because he couldn't stand the heat, and he's threatening to run away from the remaining debates because he can't stand the heat. In the eyes of the Democratic base, he is a monster to a far greater degree that Obama is a monster in the eyes of the Republican base. Anti-Trump turnout would be off the charts. He has no attacks on Hillary since everything wrong she has done, he has done worse. Platoons of reliable constitutional conservatives will refuse to vote for him (I'm one of the them).

The silver lining of a Trump nomination is that the people who supported him will get a rude awakening after he gets obliterated and they start to rationalize why. They'll then clearly see how terrible of a person they supported.

I hope you're correct, but I feel it will be the same old: "It's all the conservative's fault, because they didn't rally behind Trump."

[JKDS]

Trump will steamroll both popular vote, and delegates, regardless of what the polling says. The amount of support he has is far greater than that which Cruz or Rubio has, and by letting him take over Super-Tue, they've lost this race.

Even assuming that Trump doesnt crush like im speculating, and only takes about half the delegates, his momentum will still be immense. Since he won a few caucuses, the notion that trump is a "joke candidate" has all but vanished. Whenever someone says that in public, they're met with the obv response, "yeah, well he beat x in NH/GA/SC". Not only is he real now, but hes winning, and soon its going to be Cruz and Rubio who are the joke candidates becasue they cant beat a man who is good friends with the likely Democratic Nominee.

[JKDS]

Inb4 Trump takes texas.

[wufwugy]

I considered the "Trump wins have legitimized him" thing a while ago. As of now, it seems more that his increase in popularity coincides with the ex-Democrat racism strongholds in the Deep South and Appalachia. It appears he was greatly helped in those states by his recent KKK stuff. He also is strong in the NE because he's a jerk and they love jerks. We're not sure how he does in the rest of the country, but there is strong reason to believe that Cruz or Rubio without the other in the race beats him there.

If you think Trump takes Texas, you're not paying attention.

It should also be noted that Ted taking Texas shows that the media is responsible for electing candidates, since Texas is the one place where everybody knows Cruz regardless of what the media says. Which is funny since Florida is the one place where they know Rubio regardless of the media, and they know he lied to them and he's losing big time because of it.

[wufwugy]

Cruz just passed Trump in OK

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

[wufwugy]

BTW JKDS it should be noted that Trump's super popularity isn't some sort of "the GOP is stupid like that" thing. He's getting enormous turnout from crossover Dems. They're the old school racism, protectionism, nationalism Dems for the most part. Notice how low the Democratic primaries turnouts out. There is also some speculation (but no evidence to back it up) that some Dems who support Clinton are voting for Trump since it's obvious she will win the nomination already and they want the easiest way to the WH in Trump.

[FeliciaLee]

One of several not unlikely scenarios: Cruz wins Texas and maybe a few others. Rubio loses Florida and every other. At that point, Rubio exits and endorses Cruz. Trump would then be in a world of hurt. Granted he could still win since by then many pro-Cruz states would have already happened. But Cruz has a strong delegate game. He would pick up more delegates in the races he takes second than Trump would in the races he takes second.

So much of this boils down to Cruz's Super Tuesday strategy working: winning Texas by enough that he gets a load of delegates, and having a strong delegate game in Georgia even through a non-first finish. He's not playing to win that many states. He's only going to Oklahoma and Tennessee once each between now and the election. Everything else is Texas and Georgia.

Cruz just passed Trump in OK

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

[wufwugy]

And he's gaining ground. Looks like the Shy Tory effect (conservatives somehow not being polled yet showing up at the election).