03-15-2018 01:55 PM
#7501
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03-15-2018 01:59 PM
#7502
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Yeah unfortunately that's all you've got, because you know, deep down, that I'm right. You just don't want to lose face by saying "yeah ong you're right if banana fucked off things would get boring" or "you know what ong thanks for making me realise we're drifitng from the debate and instead arguing about utter bollocks". | |
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03-15-2018 02:04 PM
#7503
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03-15-2018 02:04 PM
#7504
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lol you get crazier all the time. Identity politics lol. | |
03-15-2018 02:07 PM
#7505
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03-15-2018 02:09 PM
#7506
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03-15-2018 09:00 PM
#7507
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@ong: I'm not griping. FYI, spoon can badger me all day and I will respect his ideas. | |
03-15-2018 09:26 PM
#7508
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Do there need to be two+ input variables for heteroskedasticity to arise? For example, if the regression is income = age, the variation in income over the range of age doesn't result in heteroskedasticity, yet if the regression is income = age + gender, then the variation in income over the range of age does result in heteroskedasticity? |
03-15-2018 09:30 PM
#7509
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In a way I'm using a simple, one variable explanation as my model too (regarding PA, the only one I've opined on). |
03-15-2018 09:37 PM
#7510
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03-15-2018 09:39 PM
#7511
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03-15-2018 10:44 PM
#7512
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Pulling from Taleb: |
03-16-2018 06:32 AM
#7513
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03-16-2018 06:34 AM
#7514
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03-16-2018 06:36 AM
#7515
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03-16-2018 01:24 PM
#7516
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Sorry, I was thinking in terms of the analysis I had just done when I said one predictor and one outcome variable can't result in heteroscedascity. What I should have done, to be completely correct, is preface that with 'assuming you treat both variables as dichotomous' as in the case of an 'election being held either in 2016 or 2017', where that predictor variable is dichotomous because it has only one of two values (2016 or 2017), and the outcome variable being dichotomous as in either swing(D) or swing (R). | |
03-16-2018 09:13 PM
#7517
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03-21-2018 02:29 PM
#7518
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...VYu?li=BBnb7Kz |
03-22-2018 09:13 AM
#7519
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http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018...e-threats.html |
03-22-2018 09:32 PM
#7520
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Are you saying you will offer me 2 of yours to 1 of mine if I bet that Trump will beat Biden 2020 (if they both run)? |
03-22-2018 10:04 PM
#7521
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LOL he actually said this: |
03-23-2018 01:56 AM
#7522
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So this Cambridge Analytica thing... best I can tell, it seems it wasn't the Russians meddling with the American election... it was the British. | |
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03-23-2018 08:35 AM
#7523
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No, I thought it was obvious from the link that I was talking about a hypothetical fistfight between the two. |
Last edited by BananaStand; 03-23-2018 at 08:37 AM. | |
03-23-2018 08:39 AM
#7524
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Best I can tell, no one was meddling with anything. Data mining and targeted advertising don't violate any laws best I can tell. |
03-23-2018 10:28 AM
#7525
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03-23-2018 08:24 PM
#7526
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03-24-2018 06:53 PM
#7527
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Bone spurs. | |
03-27-2018 10:07 AM
#7528
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I can't tell if this is biased and manipulative chicanery, or if the NY Times has actually deluded themselves. |
03-27-2018 11:45 AM
#7529
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Sounds more like an excuse from someone who knows he's going to get curb-stomped in an election and wants to save himself the embarrassment. | |
03-27-2018 11:57 AM
#7530
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03-27-2018 12:13 PM
#7531
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03-27-2018 01:01 PM
#7532
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Take a look at the poll numbers that you love to jerk off to. |
03-27-2018 01:32 PM
#7533
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Please, post some links to these sources your referencing. I'd love to see how you get from 42% to landsliding the midterms. | |
03-27-2018 01:43 PM
#7534
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https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...vote-6185.html |
03-27-2018 01:55 PM
#7535
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Haha, so you're inferring a trend from those values and assuming it's going to continue right through to November. Well sure, Nostradamus, that's what always happens when the apparent trend is going in the direction you want it to. | |
03-27-2018 02:09 PM
#7536
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I realize that your caveman cognition can't handle much more than "Ooga booga - line go up - happy time", but I assure you I'm putting a little more thought into it than you're alleging. |
03-27-2018 02:15 PM
#7537
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Well first your prediction was based on the gun debate; now you've thought up a few more reasons. So I'm glad your expert analysis is so well thought out. | |
03-27-2018 02:21 PM
#7538
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Are you suggesting that there are not multiple issues that affect the outcome of elections? Are you suggesting that I believed elections all hinged on one single issue? |
03-27-2018 02:27 PM
#7539
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Where did I suggest that? | |
03-27-2018 02:36 PM
#7540
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You implied quite clearly that my analysis was not well-thought out because it was not committed to one single political issue. |
03-27-2018 02:40 PM
#7541
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Exactly, because you only referenced one political issue. Should I infer you'd thought the other ones were relevant by the fact you DIDN'T include them? | |
03-27-2018 02:44 PM
#7542
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03-27-2018 02:47 PM
#7543
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03-27-2018 02:57 PM
#7544
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I'm not sure what you mean here. |
Last edited by BananaStand; 03-27-2018 at 03:12 PM. | |
05-01-2018 11:02 PM
#7545
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06-24-2018 09:26 PM
#7546
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Who's got the Democrat juice these days? |
06-25-2018 06:19 AM
#7547
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If I were the Dems I'd put the most boring old white man I could find against Trump in 2020. | |
06-25-2018 09:11 AM
#7548
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06-25-2018 04:42 PM
#7549
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06-25-2018 10:15 PM
#7550
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06-25-2018 10:16 PM
#7551
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07-13-2018 02:57 AM
#7552
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"The information operatives who worked out of the Internet Research Agency in St. Petersburg did not stop at posing as American social media users or spreading false information from purported news sources, according to new details. They also created a number of Twitter accounts that posed as sources for Americans' hometown headlines. NPR has reviewed information connected with the investigation and found 48 such accounts. They have names such as @ElPasoTopNews, @MilwaukeeVoice, @CamdenCityNews and @Seattle_Post. "A not-insignificant amount of those had some sort of variation on what appeared to be a homegrown local news site," said Bret Schafer, a social media analyst for the Alliance for Securing Democracy, which tracks Russian influence operations and first noticed this trend. Another example: The Internet Research Agency created an account that looks like it is the Chicago Daily News. That newspaper shuttered in 1978. The Internet Research Agency-linked account was created in May 2014, and for years, it just posted local headlines, accumulating some 19,000 followers by July 2016. | |
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07-13-2018 06:06 AM
#7553
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I really think Trump will win again on 2020, the polls, the media and the Dems will underestimate him again.. I don't even like the guy |
07-13-2018 06:20 AM
#7554
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I only pretend to like him because it trolls the never-Trumpers. | |
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07-13-2018 06:28 AM
#7555
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07-13-2018 06:29 AM
#7556
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What will be more interesting is how big of a shit storm Trump will cause if/when he gets the boot (I know Ong thinks he will leave gracefully but loltrolllol). | |
07-13-2018 11:37 AM
#7557
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07-13-2018 05:09 PM
#7558
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No, I said I'm not in the business of judging people for what they might or might not do in a given situation. And I also said I don't give a fuck. | |
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07-13-2018 06:20 PM
#7559
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Haha I'll give you 50:1 he goes down in a tantrum that would impress a 2 year old. | |
Last edited by Poopadoop; 07-13-2018 at 06:23 PM. | |
07-19-2018 09:16 PM
#7560
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08-08-2018 11:07 AM
#7561
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I've been staring at the front page of CNN's website now for 10 minutes. I've scanned every caption and read every headline on this homepage. |
08-27-2018 12:46 PM
#7562
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I really can't get over how shockingly stupid the democrat party has become. The superdelagates were probably the only thing they did right during the election. If the repubs had that, Ted Cruz would be president right now. Think about that Trump-haters! |
10-27-2018 08:55 PM
#7563
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I didn't view the bstand meltdown. Wha happa? |
10-27-2018 09:24 PM
#7564
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It started with some sob story about his wife not taking care of his kids and sending him to anger management, and how he thinks he's either becoming gay or going impotent because he can't get hard for chicks anymore. Then he starts posting dick picks asking "does this look hard to you" and we'd have to go "hard as a rock dude," because it sounds like he's about to off himself. And finally he's offering Ong like £1000 if he lets him eat his ass, and that was the last straw. | |
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10-27-2018 09:31 PM
#7565
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i fucking lold |
10-27-2018 11:20 PM
#7566
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i bet it's all true too. something he'd do |
10-29-2018 11:07 AM
#7567
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He's obviously an intelligent person, and he contributed more to our discussions than anyone in recent memory, but he wouldn't refrain from directly insulting FTR posters, so he had to go. | |
10-30-2018 03:29 PM
#7568
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I'm not sure wealth is the right word. Sure it can mean 'a large quantity,' but you wouldn't ever talk about a "wealth of manure" or "a wealth of cancer" or "a wealth of the dumbest gish gallop list of autism you have ever seen outside of creationsim.com" | |
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10-30-2018 03:38 PM
#7569
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There was certainly a wealth of 'AARARRRGHGHGH!!'. Maybe that's what he meant. | |
10-30-2018 05:21 PM
#7570
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Half a dozen arguments mixed in with a dozen insults* |
10-30-2018 05:21 PM
#7571
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Sure, sure. I meant plethora, not wealth, I guess. | |
10-30-2018 05:21 PM
#7572
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10-30-2018 07:22 PM
#7573
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Amazing. | |
10-31-2018 02:32 PM
#7574
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I put 5 minutes in and I'm not impressed. Wanna drop a timestamp on what part is amazing? | |
10-31-2018 02:53 PM
#7575
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