Yeah, no, I don't think you can know what you claim to know and had known.
That's not to say there isn't value in prediction, and that the results aligning with your predictions is meaningless-- however, with the available dataset I think the knowledge offered is far more limited than you think.
A common retort to "she won the popular vote" is "right, she beat him at the game he wasn't playing-- he beat her at the game that matters" This is true, but again, it goes both ways. Your analysis of her loss assigns a goal set that you can't know she held as her goal set and there's reasons to believe her goal set was much narrower. If it was that narrow goal set, if her goal was to both win the electoral college, and to win the popular vote with a landslide, her play could have been optimal. And it is not hard to argue that anything less than achieving this combined goal would not have been a victory for her at all.
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