Quote Originally Posted by BankItDrew View Post
wuf, you say trump will win in a landslide. how do you explain the current polls and gambling websites giving Hilary a 4:1 favorite?
Gambling sites: they've been wrong this whole cycle (at least on the GOP side). They also would have been wrong on the Dem side if the DNC hadn't literally cheated, but whatever. Also, AFAIK betting odds are set to generate action, to reflect how bettors want to act, not necessarily the *real* odds.

The polls: pollsters are engaging in some raunchy pro-Clinton tactics. For example, many of them are weighting for 2008 turnout. 2016 is not going to look like 2008. That doesn't mean that they should try to more accurately predict turnout, but it does show the polls have a consistent bias that is not likely to show up on election day. Most signs point towards the turnout being more GOP leaning than 2012 was, which suggests the race is very tight.

I think there will be a moderately significant Shy Trump effect. The Shy Tory effect has seemed to happen quite a bit in Britain. They say it happened with Brexit, where the polls had Remain winning yet it ended up getting soundly defeated.

The guys who ran the best poll in 2012 IMO are running this poll: http://cesrusc.org/election/

Nate Hydrogen hates it, but I think he's wrong. There is a great deal that can be garnered from this type of polling, and it was spot on in 2012. The link updates daily with new results. It's probably best used to view where the candidates are relative to each other and trends.