I'm predicting 20% probability of Trump winning close to 356 EVs. I say "close" because the exact number includes winning New Mexico, Maine, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, which are very aggressive predictions. Along with this is that he wins >20% of the black vote and >50% of the Hispanic vote -- and that men make up >50% of the electorate.
If you follow 538, you've seen the seldom occasion of Nate Copper and buddies stating that polling is in trouble yet defending why it's not in existential crisis. I think this election will unveil the existential crisis. Indeed, I think polling will appear to be far, far worse than it actually is, simply because I think the Trump phenomenon will yield the extreme end of bad polling results.
At the least, I have to believe this because I believe in humanity. Perhaps Hillary winning would be the best thing to happen to me because it would probably propel me to reject my automatic fantasy that humankind is something better than the rest.
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