If Kasich stays in the race, Trump will probably get to 1237. Kasich can pull off enough anti-Trump vote that Trump's 40% ceiling will win states that he needs to lose, like the soon to come Arizona. With Kasich in the race, Trump will probably win ~10 more states including California. Without Kasich in the race, Cruz would win all the remaining states except New York and maybe 2 or 3 others.

Fantastic stuff. Trump probably made a deal with Kasich to give him the VP spot. Of course after getting the nomination Trump will ask "What deal?". How ironic it would be for the party with the base of conservatism to nominate a man whose political ideology is that government exists for the purpose of granting monopoly power to specific groups, who was propped up to the nomination by a sycophant who's ideas better reflect Democratic leftism, all the while behind the curtains is the party elite who wanted to stop this guy but chose to not do so because the only way was for them to embrace a different guy who would put a stop to their gravy train of cronyism.