Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
The day before the vote, it was Remain up by 2%. Leave won by 2%. That there was some error in the polling is one explanation. There could also have been a greater number of undecideds that went Leave on the last day. We'll never know. But saying it was 2:1 or 1.8:1 or 3:1 has no credence since we don't know how much the polling numbers were off in the first place.
Origin point comparison is sorta arbitrary. Generally when we say "undecideds broke at such n such rate" it is referring to an origin before the eventual final results consolidated and when the undecided vote began to decrease. For Brexit, the one month out mark is the standard. Granted, that origin shows the lowest effect. Five months out would show a much bigger effect.