Bill Mitchell's twitter is a good one to look over if interested in why the polls are using total bullshit parameters. It's with things like pre-debate they used only +2 D but after debate using +9. And how their parameters are implying a turnout for Clinton greater than the turnout for Obama 2008. And how they're ignoring the best evidence of the race so far: that Hillary greatly underperformed in the primaries and Trump greatly overperformed.

Outside of that, here's a my simple analysis for why the race is at the very least a tossup. The absentee numbers in Florida strongly (strongly!) point towards a Republican win. The rumors that Hillary abandoned Ohio are strong. From the beginning, Iowa was a lost cause for Clinton, even giving Trump big victories in oversampled D polls. Republican turnout in New Hampshire primary was bigger than Democrats. The second district of Maine has polled heavily for Trump.

Where does all that put us? At Trump with 264 EV's, just 6 shy of winning. All he needs is to flip one state. Let's look at those states. Nevada is Trump's second "home state" and has polled suspiciously in favor of him more often than Democrats want to see. Internal polls from the Wikileaks of the Hillary camp have shown Colorado at worst a tossup. If Ohio and Iowa are any measure, Wisconsin is likely to turn red. The Michigan polls were off by 20 fucking points in the Democrat primary, giving Bernie a huge win. Trump hits the same labor chord that gave Bernie the huge win. Pennsylvania has been gradually shifting red and is reporting a big bump this cycle. Virginia is traditionally red and only went blue because of the major turnout of blacks for a black guy.

The headline numbers of the polls are getting this one wrong. League of big.