**** Elections thread *****

[Renton]

so will jeb make a comeback?

[wufwugy]

so will jeb make a comeback?

Hard to say. If I'm guessing, I'm going to say that Jeb! will not be the nominee. The main heuristic I'm using is the fact that the field is very strong and there are other candidates who have broader appeal as well as establishment appeal. The 2012 narrative was about the base looking for a not-Romney yet finding no viable candidates. However, this time there are a few viable not-Jeb!s. I don't see Kasich getting the nod, but Rubio could.

If I'm guessing who the nominee will be, I'm saying Rubio. The reasoning is that Jeb! and Kasich will probably only get so far before lots of money is spent. But then after lots of money is spent, they won't move that much. This will greatly surprise the establishment (money is quite misunderstood in politics), and that will provoke them to abandon Jeb!, who they're backing now partly because they think all of his money will be the game changer. So, when it comes time for the establishment to coalesce, they will probably see Rubio as the only viable option since he will be a contender on the merits (his support doubled after this debate, for example).

Trump is not a fine wine. He doesn't have staying power, as shown in the latest debate. He gets by on some buzzwords and buzz feelings and the fact that he has enormous name recognition as well as opposition votes are split. HU he loses to >50% of the field, maybe even >80%.