In November it sound like SARS, which was supposed to be a global pandemic, but fizzled out.
Now in March it sounds like it's essentially a lock that 50,000-150,000 people in the US will die.
03-21-2020 01:52 AM
#76
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In November it sound like SARS, which was supposed to be a global pandemic, but fizzled out. | |
03-21-2020 03:51 AM
#77
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The death rate of 80+ years old is 15-18%, for 70-79 7-8%. High blood pressure seems to be the worst pre-existing condition to have, followed by cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. | |
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03-21-2020 04:17 AM
#78
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03-21-2020 07:19 AM
#79
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03-21-2020 07:26 AM
#80
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03-21-2020 08:19 AM
#81
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I thought the first case was reported in December..? | |
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03-21-2020 08:37 AM
#82
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The first official case was Dec 1st, but there was an unconfirmed case in Wuhan on, I think, the 17th Nov. | |
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03-21-2020 08:38 AM
#83
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Are we at the point yet where the damage to the economy is worse than the virus itself? | |
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03-21-2020 08:46 AM
#84
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03-21-2020 08:57 AM
#85
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03-21-2020 09:08 AM
#86
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03-21-2020 09:36 AM
#87
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poop, the economy is not just about money. | |
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03-21-2020 09:46 AM
#88
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03-21-2020 09:50 AM
#89
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I guess we really need a control group - i.e., a country that does absolutely nothing to contain CV, and see where they are a couple of years from now. | |
03-21-2020 09:51 AM
#90
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Member of Pence's staff just tested + for CV. | |
03-21-2020 10:06 AM
#91
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I don't understand much but from what I think I do, the main issue is the large number of patients requiring hospitalization and ventilators. This applies to almost all age groups, not just old people. People under 50 and without pre-existing conditions have a far better chance of survival, but almost the same percentage of them require intensive care as old ones. If the hospitals can't tend to everyone, people start dying en masse, like in northern Italy. | |
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03-21-2020 10:08 AM
#92
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It's not an easy problem to solve. But this is just the start. If the panic buying doesn't stop, looting is next. When that happens, all bets are off. At the extreme, this could cause revolutions around the planet. Governments could be toppled. Some might be military coups, others perhaps popular uprisings. This could be the end of capitalism, which many people might want, but most will likely change their minds when the reality of the alternatives hit home. | |
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03-21-2020 10:41 AM
#93
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The further in the future we go, the less reliable our estimates will be. | |
03-21-2020 10:44 AM
#94
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Just out of curiosity though, what do you think will be the motivation for people to riot? | |
03-21-2020 10:52 AM
#95
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03-21-2020 10:59 AM
#96
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There's two potential motivations. A food shortage caused by continued stockpiling, and then there's bored twats. The latter shouldn't even be a factor, but it is. Remember that guy who got shot in London? There were riots around the country. Nobody actually gave a fuck about that guy, it was a bunch of twats who just wanted an excuse to kick off. That could happen again, we've seen it doesn't take much. | |
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03-21-2020 11:08 AM
#97
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Food shortages seem unlikely. There's only so much pasta people can hoard before they run out of money because they're unemployed, remember? | |
03-21-2020 11:11 AM
#98
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03-21-2020 11:14 AM
#99
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Well, we are one of the countries that isnt well-equipped to handle this. It's just starting and there's already at least one hospital in London that is short of ventilators. | |
03-21-2020 11:27 AM
#100
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I don't think there will be a food shortage, but it's not out of the question. | |
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03-21-2020 11:36 AM
#101
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Give the Brexit talk a rest. It's a complete irrelevance at this moment in time. We're finding the money to get out of this mess by borrowing, just like every other government in the world. This will cost trillions. The £350m (not billion) a week figure is probably nonsense anyway, I'd guess it's how much we spend without taking into account how much we benefit. | |
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03-21-2020 12:48 PM
#102
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03-21-2020 01:56 PM
#103
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You are right, it could have been a flu. Nobody knows. Interesting to note: one of the people I know who got sick from the same one I did, had the exact exclusive covid19 symptoms and nothing else. |
03-21-2020 02:06 PM
#104
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You think like an economist. That's very cool. |
03-21-2020 02:14 PM
#105
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I wonder if the government will hold off on release employment and real growth figures. It might be the best of the two worst ideas. What we don't want is the figures to show some crazy growth decrease, like -10% in March. If those were released and there wasn't clear recovery from the virus on the very near horizon, the economy would crash unlike we've ever seen IMO. |
03-21-2020 02:23 PM
#106
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Yeah I mean that's probably because what's happening right now is a great deal worse than even the most pessimistic remainers thought Brexit would be. If I thought for one minute Brexit meant an economic shutdown then I would have been more concerned about the economic impact. I anticipated an economic shock, but then this happened and now it's a completely different discussion. | |
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03-21-2020 02:25 PM
#107
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If we really want to minimize the effect of this on the economy, we'd be mass-testing everyone. You get a test once a week, if it's -tive you go about your business, if it's +ive you stay inside and lock the doors. $35 per test per person per week is a lot less than the hurt the economy is taking now. | |
03-21-2020 02:29 PM
#108
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Interesting about the covid numbers is how they're what you can think of as a Halfpinion (half-opinion). The data is not contrasted to the other most relevant data, which means that we don't have much of a way to understand what the data has to say. |
03-21-2020 02:32 PM
#109
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03-21-2020 02:50 PM
#110
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I wish I still talked with my Humanities professor who leaned toward the Huxleyan view of society. Are we entertaining ourselves into doom? The COVID-19 pandemic might be real eye opener. |
Last edited by wufwugy; 03-21-2020 at 02:56 PM. | |
03-21-2020 03:02 PM
#111
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I think you're misunderstanding the concern that prompts the shutdown(s). Sure, older people, people with compromised immune systems and other preexisting health problems are most in danger-- and sure most cases in the general population are mild, but some number of otherwise healthy young people require an ICU stay. With an ICU stay their death rate will be very low, but if the healthcare system is overwhelmed by a spike, we're in triage territory. | |
03-21-2020 03:04 PM
#112
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03-21-2020 03:07 PM
#113
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There are less than 100K ICU beds in the US. There's an order of magnitude greater number of people who are in the high risk group. This makes the data you're seeking irrelevant. | |
03-21-2020 03:07 PM
#114
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03-21-2020 03:11 PM
#115
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03-21-2020 03:19 PM
#116
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Economics is holistic. When you said you have to weigh things like the expected increased suicide rate from a worsened economy to the expected decreased death rate from COVID-19 when worsening the economy, you're engaging in a very smart type of thinking that many popular fields DON'T train. Some do train it, usually hard-science ones and engineering. Economics puts the type of thinking at forefront because of how key it is to the philosophy. |
03-21-2020 03:37 PM
#117
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I think I'm a sociopath, which helps with cold thinking. Shame I'm not educated on the matter, perhaps I could have been an economist! | |
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03-21-2020 03:58 PM
#118
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I find it interesting, but I'd much prefer it wasn't happening. | |
03-21-2020 04:38 PM
#119
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This is interesting: "75% of people who tested +ive for CV were completely asymptomatic." | |
03-21-2020 06:58 PM
#120
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You don't need the information you were looking for to know what would happen otherwise. Without locking things down, the curve is much steeper. A steeper curve overwhelms the healthcare system, causing deaths outside of the demographic that would otherwise be the main deaths. | |
03-21-2020 07:05 PM
#121
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03-21-2020 07:15 PM
#122
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This should be a strawman, but unfortunately a lot of first level thinkers, who discover logic, land on "self evident" solutions like this. As wuf said, economics is (or, in practice, strives to be) holistic. So if we knew that sacrificing 10 babies a year would ensure peace and prosperity, we'd have to include the cost of being a society that is ok with baby sacrifice. | |
03-21-2020 07:17 PM
#123
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03-21-2020 08:13 PM
#124
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03-22-2020 04:06 AM
#125
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I'm not rolling my eyes at all, I agree there are many parallels between the current system and slavery, or at the least feudalism/exploitation/whatever. The prison system, where people are working for 12c an hour or whatever the ridiculous pay is they're getting, is a solid example. So are the overseas sweatshops. | |
03-22-2020 06:45 AM
#126
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Even this twat lost the argument (eventually) | |
03-22-2020 08:18 AM
#127
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03-22-2020 08:32 AM
#128
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03-22-2020 08:52 AM
#129
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Guys, please stop reading this crap. Read or listen to what the experts are saying. This guy is, in places, making arguments and then providing links to data that directly contradict his argument. | |
03-22-2020 08:58 AM
#130
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03-22-2020 09:04 AM
#131
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03-22-2020 10:38 AM
#132
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You get early insight from me. You get what others aren't seeing yet. |
03-22-2020 11:13 AM
#133
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03-22-2020 11:16 AM
#134
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Only right now? |
03-22-2020 11:42 AM
#135
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I'm just waiting for someone with a degree in history to message me on twitter to inform me that I know nothing about neuroscience and that they should come give my lecture on Monday. | |
Last edited by Poopadoop; 03-22-2020 at 11:45 AM. | |
03-22-2020 11:53 AM
#136
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This is actually pretty funny: | |
03-22-2020 11:58 AM
#137
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What are people using to claim US is 2 weeks behind Italy? |
03-22-2020 01:22 PM
#138
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Well that idiot sure has some people fooled then | |
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03-22-2020 01:32 PM
#139
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He comes to the 'right' conclusion (inasmuch as it agrees with those people you linked to) but uses poor arguments and/or distortions of facts to get there. So yeah, he might be applauded by others with an interest in sending the same overall message, but what's he doing is rhetoric masked as science. | |
03-22-2020 01:42 PM
#140
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A little bit of math and a lot of ignoring unknown variables. | |
03-22-2020 01:45 PM
#141
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A lot of guesswork indeed. |
03-22-2020 01:51 PM
#142
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Why do you believe that? | |
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03-22-2020 01:52 PM
#143
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https://twitter.com/realDailyWire/st...51504853200897 |
03-22-2020 02:03 PM
#144
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As far as numbers I've seen, we got our first confirmed infections about 1.5 weeks before Italy. The safe assumption is that it has been spreading like "normal" since. It has been very, VERY, hard to get tested here, so there has been no tracking. Then it was once an old folks place (in Kirkland IIRC) got super sick that some tests were thrown at it. They found COVID there and only then did people start doing much about it. |
03-22-2020 02:17 PM
#145
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03-22-2020 02:21 PM
#146
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03-22-2020 03:03 PM
#147
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03-22-2020 03:07 PM
#148
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03-22-2020 03:11 PM
#149
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The death rate in Italy must be as high as it is because their health system cannot cope. Once you run out of ICUs, fatalities will rise sharply, as many people who would have survived if they had access to intensive care are now likely to die. | |
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03-22-2020 03:14 PM
#150
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