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CORONAVIRUS PANIC WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE

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  1. #751
    I appreciate that you guys might think I'm a Tory supporter, but that isn't true at all. I certainly lean more Tory than Labour at the moment, but that doesn't make me a Tory. Actually voting for them would make me a Tory, and I've never done that and probably never will. I'm more likely to vote Labour in the future, but Corbyn was a bit too socialist for my liking. The problem I have with the Tories is largely foreign policy. I was also concerned about them actually being a subtle kind of fascist, but recent events have me thinking that I was wrong on that, because they could have been a lot more fascist than they have been with this lockdown. The police have been fascist, and the govt have been publicly telling the police they are wrong. I still have my concerns in this regard, but they're not as strong as they were. But foreign policy is a deal breaker. I'm obviously ok with our EU policy, but our anti-Russia bollocks is tiresome. Funnily enough, that's an area me and poop disagree on also, it's funny that I take a left leaning view on this matter, while he sits on the right.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  2. #752
    Can we start asking them questions now?

    https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/ope...-of-positives/

    Although a numerical evaluation of the test’s reliability is not included in the NIS document, openDemocracy has learned from a leading pathologist with knowledge of the NIS’s ongoing review that the test misses 25 percent of positive cases.

    That, according to one leading epidemiologist, is a “catastrophe”. It means that those given a virus-free status in error since testing first began two months ago would not have known they were infected.

    As such, they would have continued spreading the disease among their close family and – if they continued going to work or not practising social distancing – among the wider community.
  3. #753
    Does this not suggest that we're right to not implement widespread testing? This would be a much more of a problem if we had.

    Who is to blame for substandard testing?
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  4. #754
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Does this not suggest that we're right to not implement widespread testing? This would be a much more of a problem if we had.
    No, it suggests we're wrong to be using shitty tests. Do you understand what testing is for? It's not just so you know what to put on the toe tag, it's so you can keep sick people away from other people they might infect.

    And if 25% of the sick people test -ive, you're effectively spreading the disease by using your shitty test.



    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Who is to blame for substandard testing?
    I'd like to hear your theory on that.
  5. #755
    No, it suggests we're wrong to be using shitty tests.
    I was saying this two weeks ago, that no test is better than a bad test. I have absolutely no idea how easy it is to obtain the reliable tests we're currently lacking. I don't know what chemicals they use, where these chemicals are mined, how much they cost, how much we can buy, how rigorously they need to be tested before they are used, it's not like going to the shop and choosing between Hovis and Tesco Value bread.

    And if 25% of the sick people test -ive, you're effectively spreading the disease by using your shitty test.
    It's like you've completely missed my point. I'll say it again. No test is better than a bad test. You seem to agree with me on this.

    I'd like to hear your theory on that.
    I've no idea, but if, and I appreciate it's a big if, but if the govt have exercised caution because they don't have faith in the tests we do have, then they have acted correctly.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  6. #756
    If you'd read the report, you'd see the problem is that they not only have a shortage of tests, but the tests they have are bad AND they're using them anyways.
  7. #757
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    If you'd read the report, you'd see the problem is that they not only have a shortage of tests, but the tests they have are bad AND they're using them anyways.
    Ok, at what point did we know that they were 25% unreliable? Did we stop using them when we discovered that? Did they decide that a small number of 75% accurate tests were better than nothing? That's not something I'd agree with on the surface, but then again I'm not a govt adviser.

    Again, and inquiry answers these questions. If we rolled out a test without knowing the accuracy, keeping it a relatively small sample size, then discovered it was only 75% accurate, then is there justification in blaming someone?
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  8. #758
    signing back in having survived coronavirus .

    Wifes a nurse and she had 2 weeks annual leave pre lockdown , went back in and worked 1 shift and 4 days later fell ill with temperature and lethargy and 4 days later i went down with it but not as bad as her.Was Ok ish for about a week and then more or less slept for 3 days.
    Wife had it a lot worse and she had the secondary pneumonia with strong antibiotics prescribed and been in bed for about 3&1/2 weeks .

    luckily , kids havent even had a sniffle.

    Its horrible when you get it and only dickheads would question how badly people have suffered with it or ignore social distancing. You may be ok if you catch it but its the healthcare workers and their familes that will end up paying the price of your ignorance.


    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    I would not be upset if the price of fruit (or anything else) went up a bit if it meant workers were not being exploited as a consequence. But that's just me.
    One of the most naive posts ever made ..... anyone remember when UK supermarkets paid an extra couple of pence a litre to pass back to the farmers , a couple of months later the price of milk stayed up and the supermarkets had "renegotiated " the price back down so that the extra couple of pence everyone thought was going to the farmers sat on the supermarkets bottom line.
  9. #759
    Quote Originally Posted by Keith View Post
    signing back in having survived coronavirus .

    Wifes a nurse and she had 2 weeks annual leave pre lockdown , went back in and worked 1 shift and 4 days later fell ill with temperature and lethargy and 4 days later i went down with it but not as bad as her.Was Ok ish for about a week and then more or less slept for 3 days.
    Wife had it a lot worse and she had the secondary pneumonia with strong antibiotics prescribed and been in bed for about 3&1/2 weeks .

    luckily , kids havent even had a sniffle.

    Its horrible when you get it and only dickheads would question how badly people have suffered with it or ignore social distancing. You may be ok if you catch it but its the healthcare workers and their familes that will end up paying the price of your ignorance.

    Glad you and your family are doing better.




    Quote Originally Posted by Keith View Post
    One of the most naive posts ever made ..... anyone remember when UK supermarkets paid an extra couple of pence a litre to pass back to the farmers , a couple of months later the price of milk stayed up and the supermarkets had "renegotiated " the price back down so that the extra couple of pence everyone thought was going to the farmers sat on the supermarkets bottom line.
    Hmm, not sure where in my post I said I'd be happy if the price went up so supermarkets could get richer, but ok.
  10. #760
    Hi Keith, best wishes to you and your family.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  11. #761
    Hmm, not sure where in my post I said I'd be happy if the price went up so supermarkets could get richer, but ok.
    I think the point he's making is that any price increase that is designed to increase revenue for producers ultimately ends up in the pockets of big businesses. There may be a temporary windfall for farmers, but the supermarkets hold all the aces.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  12. #762
    Human trials for a vaccine are about to take place. They're offering between £190 and £625. It'll take six months, with between 4 and 11 visits, 90 minutes each time, and the money you get has to pay for your travel.

    Fucking skinflints. Apparently this is a £40m investment from the govt. Shame that money isn't going to the guinea pigs.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  13. #763
    Simon McDonald, head of the Foreign Office, has suggested the decision to reject EU help with regards PPE and ventilators was a "political decision". The govt claim he "misspoke" and a clarification if forthcoming. That will be interesting.

    McDonald is not a politician, he is a diplomat. I have no idea if he's pro-Brexit or not. He's worked for Boris (as PM and Foreign Secretary), Cameron, May and Blair. His first diplomat job was Ambassador to Israel under Blair.

    This guy needs to be put under oath.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  14. #764
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Human trials for a vaccine are about to take place. They're offering between £190 and £625. It'll take six months, with between 4 and 11 visits, 90 minutes each time, and the money you get has to pay for your travel.

    Fucking skinflints. Apparently this is a £40m investment from the govt. Shame that money isn't going to the guinea pigs.
    If the vaccine works, you'll also get immunity ahead of everyone else.

    Not sure what 'travel' means, presumably you can claim a lunch or something, depending on how far you go.

    Anyways, there's plenty of people who will be happy to take part for nothing. So I don't think they need to pay their subjects a lot of money. And whatever money doesn't get spent goes back to the funder - it's not like they're hoarding the rest of the £40m so Oxford can throw a big CV-19 champagne and caviar party or something.

    Fruit-picking jobs still open, btw, if you're keen to do your bit.
  15. #765
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    If the vaccine works, you'll also get immunity ahead of everyone else.

    Not sure what 'travel' means, presumably you can claim a lunch or something, depending on how far you go.

    Anyways, there's plenty of people who will be happy to take part for nothing. So I don't think they need to pay their subjects a lot of money. And whatever money doesn't get spent goes back to the funder - it's not like they're hoarding the rest of the £40m so Oxford can throw a big CV-19 champagne and caviar party or something.
    Yeah there won't be a shortage of volunteers. I just feel that they're taking advantage of peoples' goodwill. It wouldn't cost the taxpayer much to pay these guinea pigs £2k+ for their bravery so they can at least enjoy a nice holiday when it's over.

    Fruit-picking jobs still open, btw.
    Don't be a twat. I'll let you in on a secret... I've applied for more information regarding fruit picking jobs in my locality, but I'm a stubborn fucker and if you persist on taking this "learn to code" tone of mockery with me, I'll reject the job offer and sit the fuck at home, just so you can take the blame for one less fruit picker. So nip this in the bud please. It's not funny, it's twattery.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  16. #766
    Looks like under-reporting of CV deaths is pretty common.

    Dotted lines are expected no. of deaths at a given time of year. Dark orange are deaths attributed to CV, light orange shading between dotted line and dark orange are deaths above expected not attributed to CV.

    Graphs use different scales, so direct comparison not really possble. But between the dotted line and top of orange shading shows all likely CV-related deaths.

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...ross-countries
  17. #767
    There's also a farm that I can actually see from my bedroom window that are apparently seeking fruit pickers. It's pushing an hour walk, because there's a fucking river in the way so I'll have to walk to the nearest bridge, but take it from me, I am looking into this. I just don't appreciate being mocked into doing it.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  18. #768
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    Looks like under-reporting of CV deaths is pretty common.

    Dotted lines are expected no. of deaths at a given time of year. Dark orange are deaths attributed to CV, light orange shading between dotted line and dark orange are deaths above expected not attributed to CV.

    Graphs use different scales, so direct comparison not really possble. But between the dotted line and top of orange shading shows all likely CV-related deaths.

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...ross-countries
    The under-reporting is likely a result of unconfirmed deaths outside of hospitals. I saw a figure somewhere suggesting the death rate is around 1/6 higher than published, but I've no idea where that figure comes from. I think with a lot of cases in care homes they're just guessing what caused the death. It's probably CV, but it could be flu, or a heart attack, idk. I think the figures will become more reliable over time, but they'll never be totally accurate.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  19. #769
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Yeah there won't be a shortage of volunteers. I just feel that they're taking advantage of peoples' goodwill. It wouldn't cost the taxpayer much to pay these guinea pigs £2k+ for their bravery so they can at least enjoy a nice holiday when it's over.
    What bravery? If it works you get to be one of the first people vaccinated in the world.



    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Lol, I really don't care if you pick fruit or not. I do find it funny that your excuse for not doing it turns out to be because I razzed you though.
  20. #770
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    The under-reporting is likely a result of unconfirmed deaths outside of hospitals. I saw a figure somewhere suggesting the death rate is around 1/6 higher than published, but I've no idea where that figure comes from. I think with a lot of cases in care homes they're just guessing what caused the death. It's probably CV, but it could be flu, or a heart attack, idk. I think the figures will become more reliable over time, but they'll never be totally accurate.
    The graphs comparing to expected death rate are probably best, because they include people dying from other things who would have received care in time if not for CV overstressing the health systems.
  21. #771
    What bravery? If it works you get to be one of the first people vaccinated in the world.
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...BwtSw6yMGHtJfa

    Remember this? I'd rather take my chances with covid than be injected with something that'll turn me into an elephant.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  22. #772
    Lol, I really don't care if you pick fruit or not. I do find it funny that your excuse for not doing it turns out to be because I razzed you though.
    I get the impression that you think it's not something I'm serious about, hence the mockery. I am serious about it. So let me get on with it. It might or might not happen. I'm not that bothered, I'm happy sat at home doing fuck all but then again it'd be nice to be outside during the summer and it'd be nice to have a decent income for a while. And yes, 40 hours on minimum wage is a decent income compared to benefits.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  23. #773
    A vaccine is not exactly in the same realm as experimental cancer drugs. They basically inject dead CV cells into you. So, unless you know of a news report of people getting e.g., polio from a polio vaccine, I think the risk is very low.
  24. #774
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    The graphs comparing to expected death rate are probably best, because they include people dying from other things who would have received care in time if not for CV overstressing the health systems.
    I'll be surprised if they have reliable figures for this already, but certainly there will be non-covid deaths caused by covid. We're apparently 8k more deaths for the week compared to last year, with only 6k attributed to covid, so there's something going on.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
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  25. #775
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    A vaccine is not exactly in the same realm as experimental cancer drugs. They basically inject dead CV cells into you. So, unless you know of a news report of people getting e.g., polio from a polio vaccine, I think the risk is very low.
    The risk is very low, but it's still a risk, and it's a hugely important thing to do.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  26. #776
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I get the impression that you think it's not something I'm serious about, hence the mockery. I am serious about it. So let me get on with it. It might or might not happen. I'm not that bothered, I'm happy sat at home doing fuck all but then again it'd be nice to be outside during the summer and it'd be nice to have a decent income for a while. And yes, 40 hours on minimum wage is a decent income compared to benefits.
    I get the impression you think I care whether you do it or not. Do whatever makes you happy man.
  27. #777
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    I get the impression you think I care whether you do it or not. Do whatever makes you happy man.
    This is pretty much how I live my life. I haven't worked properly for a decade for this very reason, but I am at the point where I want a little more from life. Don't get me wrong, it's not an ambition to pick fruit, but a summer of work this year can pay for a summer of festivals next year.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  28. #778
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I'll be surprised if they have reliable figures for this already, but certainly there will be non-covid deaths caused by covid. We're apparently 8k more deaths for the week compared to last year, with only 6k attributed to covid, so there's something going on.
    Yeah well I doubt they're going to dig up the bodies when this is all over to get an exact count. But, if you know how many people usually die in a given week of the year (x), and for the time up to when CV arrives death rates are following that pattern, then CV arrives and deaths suddenly go up to x + y, then you can reasonably attribute y (either directly or indirectly) to CV
  29. #779
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    The risk is very low, but it's still a risk, and it's a hugely important thing to do.
    I think not taking part is probably a bigger health risk than taking part fwiw, but ok.
  30. #780
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    I think not taking part is probably a bigger health risk than taking part fwiw, but ok.
    Well, it's a bigger public health risk, but I dunno about personal health risk. I don't care about a vaccine for covid, it's primarily for the vulnerable, and if enough people are vaccinated, I don't need to be because it can't spread like it has done. The chances of me, unvaccinated, of getting covid when other people are vaccinated becomes very low indeed, probably to the point I should worry more about malaria.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
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  31. #781
    Sure, but the vaccine isn't going to be available to the masses for months after they start testing it. So, you get the vaccine on d1, and if it works, from d1 to d181 (or whatever time it goes out to the masses, maybe it's d365) you'll be immune, and everyone else will still be susceptible.

    They also presumably give you a free test to begin with and if you've had it, you'll find out then. Seems better than worrying about getting it from some asshole sneezing on the milk at the supermarket.
  32. #782
    You're right, of course, that being vaccinated is a health bonus, and it probably does outweigh the risk of it going wrong. But still, personally, I'd want more than £600 for my efforts because it would still be quite mentally demanding, it'd be scary. It's not greed, it's a desire to enjoy a fortnight on a sunny beach somewhere other than the UK afterwards.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
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  33. #783
    £600 wouldn't even pay for my weed during the trials.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
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  34. #784
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    £600 wouldn't even pay for my weed during the trials.
    It's not a full time job mate.

    Not sure why it's scary either. You go in the first time, they give you a jab, swab your nose, ask you to fill in a report form about any symptoms you've experienced lately. Then the next few times it's the same thing without the jab. At least I imagine that's what it's like; maybe they give you some shocks and see if you shit your pants too, dunno.
  35. #785
    It's scary partly for irrational reasons. You're going to walk in there and remember the elephant man trials. You know it's highly unlikely something like that will happen, in fact you've got more chance of dying on the way to the clinic, but you still think about how it can go wrong. I guess that gets easier once you've had the first jab.

    And I know it's not a full time job, but if you're going there 11 times over six months, that's once a fortnight. That's reasonably intense, especially if there are side effects, even mild ones like flu symptoms.

    The money I get paid for it is what takes my mind off the scary bit. I could die. Oh wait I could also be in New Zealand in six months, seeing my friends. Let's think about that instead.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  36. #786
    Ong, you have a very peculiar view on the responsibilities of leadership. This same tact is being taken here in the US by Trump supporters wrt his handling of the pandemic. Your point about experts is well taken, but what exactly is the point of leaders if not to be experts in picking amongst the experts?

    The reason we celebrate JFK's handling of the Cuba missile crisis is because he chose not to start a nuclear war despite the advice of some of his expert advisors.

    Of course harm from well intentioned mistakes is more forgivable than harm from negligence or, even worse, intentional harm. But the idea that leadership should not bear responsibility because they were well intentioned renders the role of leader undefined and purposeless.
  37. #787
    At least Boris isn't telling the British people that antibiotics are the cure for a virus. And we don't have morons out on the streets in force, protesting about the lockdown. I think there are massive differences between the UK and USA right now.

    You're mistaking my position for support. I don't support the government.

    Your point about experts is well taken, but what exactly is the point of leaders if not to be experts in picking amongst the experts?
    Nice word salad. Leaders are not experts in everything, and we shouldn't expect them to be. You're setting the bar too high, you expect too much from govt, especially in a country which has been dominated by a political shitshow for fucking ever. I don't think I've ever truly supported a British govt during my life.

    The reason we celebrate JFK's handling of the Cuba missile crisis is because he chose not to start a nuclear war despite the advice of some of his expert advisors.
    Good for JFK. It seems to me that he is a rare example of a truly great leader. We haven't had one of those since Churchill, and he's only great because he was an ideal wartime leader. History remembers him more fondly than it would've done had it not been for WWII.

    Of course harm from well intentioned mistakes is more forgivable than harm from negligence or, even worse, intentional harm. But the idea that leadership should not bear responsibility because they were well intentioned renders the role of leader undefined and purposeless.
    I'm not absolving the govt of responsibility, I'm saying that now is not the time for accountability, and we don't do trial by media. There will be an inquiry, where politicians who lie are committing perjury. That's the time for accountability, that's when we find out if the govt have acted in good faith, that's when we find out if we could and should have done things differently. Through this entire discussion, I've not been ignorant to the possibility that poop is completely right to critisise the govt. But he could be wrong too. I'd rather err on the side of caution, for now, and wait until this is over. I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt because we're in the middle of a very dangerous situation. That won't last forever.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
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  38. #788
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Nice word salad. Leaders are not experts in everything, and we shouldn't expect them to be. You're setting the bar too high, you expect too much from govt, especially in a country which has been dominated by a political shitshow for fucking ever. I don't think I've ever truly supported a British govt during my life.
    I believe this is the key part: "to be experts in picking amongst the experts". A leader obviously cannot be an expert in all areas, but they need to have a basic understanding of many areas. They need to be able to determine who the real expert is and who they should listen to, otherwise their cabinet is soon full of TV quacks and Kushners. A big part of having some basic understanding is knowing your limitations and realizing the real experts know better than you ever will.
    Our brains have just one scale, and we resize our experiences to fit.

  39. #789
    If I'm asking if the Big Bang really happened, and one rather decorated scientist tells me yes, certainly, and another says well we don't actually know, we just know expansion happened, who do I believe? I'm not a scientist. Neither is Boris, for that matter.

    We're talking about a subject here that no leader is going to be even the slightest bit clued up on. I really don't know why you guys expect more. Maybe it's justified, maybe the one "expert" is a drooler and should be dismissed, but we don't know that. As far as I'm aware, all their experts know their stuff, so I wouldn't know which one to listen to.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
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  40. #790
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    If I'm asking if the Big Bang really happened, and one rather decorated scientist tells me yes, certainly, and another says well we don't actually know, we just know expansion happened, who do I believe? I'm not a scientist. Neither is Boris, for that matter.
    I bet most of the people here, including you, actually know which one should be listened to and why. Why don't you require the same from Boris?

    In other news: https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/1062272
    Our brains have just one scale, and we resize our experiences to fit.

  41. #791
    Meanwhile in Florida...


  42. #792
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    As far as I'm aware, all their experts know their stuff, so I wouldn't know which one to listen to.
    I would probably listen to the one who said "You see what's happening in Italy right now? That's going to be us in two weeks, only worse, if you don't shut things down right now like everyone else is."
  43. #793
    Quote Originally Posted by CoccoBill View Post
    I bet most of the people here, including you, actually know which one should be listened to and why. Why don't you require the same from Boris?

    In other news: https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/1062272
    Maybe I would know which one to listen to if I had all the info, but I don't know this, so it's not really very fair to judge others for not knowing.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
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  44. #794
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    I would probably listen to the one who said "You see what's happening in Italy right now? That's going to be us in two weeks, only worse, if you don't shut things down right now like everyone else is."
    Pure speculation, you don't even know this was said. You're just guessing. It's probably not an unreasonable guess, what's unreasonable is to draw conclusions based on your guess.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
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  45. #795
    The link cocco posts is interesting. I wonder if more people will die as a result of famine than as a result of covid. Would that not suggest the lockdown was a net negative move? It's not a question I can answer, but it's one that the experts should be thinking about.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
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  46. #796
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Maybe I would know which one to listen to if I had all the info, but I don't know this, so it's not really very fair to judge others for not knowing.
    I know you're far too scientifically literate to hide behind that statement. You know that Big Bang is a theory, but far from something we have or maybe ever will be able to prove. You don't need all the info, just that one bit. While just one bit, it's absolutely essential to grasp to understand how science works, so I would definitely never vote for anyone even for a school board if they didn't grasp that.
    Our brains have just one scale, and we resize our experiences to fit.

  47. #797
    I know you're far too scientifically literate to hide behind that statement.
    Just because I have a healthy interest in science, doesn't make me scientifically literate. I could very easily make the wrong call based on the advice of experts.

    We don't know what advice the govt have been getting, we're making assumptions, and then some people are running with those assumptions to draw conclusions. That isn't very scientifically literate.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
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  48. #798
    I think we can safely assume the UK gov't was hearing the same range of scientific opinions the rest of the world's gov'ts were. It's hard to imagine that someone like me can spend a couple of hours on the internet and hear the entire range of opinions, yet the people who are in charge of this country were only hearing half of those opinions.

    They chose to align themselves with the more complacent part of the range of opinions, it was a mistake, and it is costing us. There's nothing more complicated to it than that really. But now, they refuse to take responsibility for their mistake, which is what grinds a lot of people's gears. The Trumpian doubling down on their fuckups is not helping their credibility.
  49. #799
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Simon McDonald, head of the Foreign Office, has suggested the decision to reject EU help with regards PPE and ventilators was a "political decision". The govt claim he "misspoke" and a clarification if forthcoming. That will be interesting.

    McDonald is not a politician, he is a diplomat. I have no idea if he's pro-Brexit or not. He's worked for Boris (as PM and Foreign Secretary), Cameron, May and Blair. His first diplomat job was Ambassador to Israel under Blair.

    This guy needs to be put under oath.
    Here's the clarification...

    "Due to a misunderstanding, I inadvertently and wrongly told the committee that ministers were briefed on the joint EU procurement scheme and took a political decision not to take part in it," he wrote.


    "That is incorrect. Ministers were not briefed by our mission in Brussels about the scheme and a political decision was not taken on whether or not to participate."
    This is what inquiries are for, to put people like this under oath. If he says this under the threat of perjury, I'll believe him.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  50. #800
    I think we can safely assume the UK gov't was hearing the same range of scientific opinions the rest of the world's gov'ts were.
    We can assume it all we want, but we can't draw conclusions because it might not be the case.

    It's hard to imagine that someone like me can spend a couple of hours on the internet and hear the entire range of opinions
    Spoiler - you haven't.

    They chose to align themselves with the more complacent part of the range of opinions,
    Perhaps, but this is why you haven't heard all the opinions... because you don't know why they chose the path they did.

    There's nothing more complicated to it than that really.
    Further evidence you haven't heard all the opinions.

    But now, they refuse to take responsibility for their mistake, which is what grinds a lot of people's gears.
    They will take responsibility in due course, whether they like it or not. If it grinds peoples' gears, then that says more about "people" than govt. Does everyone think they know better? Is the UK a population of poops?

    The Trumpian doubling down on their fuckups is not helping their credibility.
    Credibility? Priorities, mate. A British govt doesn't have any to begin with, and right now it seems silly to be attacking the govt's lack of credibility.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  51. #801
    See, unlike you, I don't just talk out of my ass and assume everyone else is doing it too. I actually have heard the entire range of expert opinions. Unlike Boris, I grasped pretty quickly how bad things could get. So I did some looking, long ago, before things got out of hand.

    There are people, experts, who claim there should be no interventions, that the disease should be allowed to go through the population and build up herd immunity. This was the original plan A the UK had. Engels in Sweden is one of these, though he does include some of the mitigation efforts from below as well, so he's not completely laissez faire in his approach.

    There are others, also experts, who argue for massive testing, and early isolation of cases, with contact tracing. Osterhom is one of these. This was the plan countries like S. Korea, Vietnam, Greece etc., followed.

    The middle of the range experts like Christiakis assume you can't stop it, but you can slow it - "flatten the curve" by implementing mitigation efforts like social distancing; but because of exponential growth, the earlier you do this the better. This is what the UK finally adopted as their Plan B when it became clear Plan A was a mistake, and was going to be a disaster. The problem is they didn't change their plan soon enough, or implement it fast enough.

    Now, your defense is we don't know what advice the gov't were getting, and we can't assume they talked to anyone who was as aware as a civilian like me was of the range of options available. That's just hard to believe, and the facts don't bear it out either. There's that report from Reuters and the other one from the Times that do in fact say they heard different opinions on the matter. So in fact, we can safely assume they were given a range of options and that they waffled around from Plan A to Plan B, and didn't do much in the meantime to prepare for either plan.

    But hey, if you want to wait another 18 months for an inquiry can conclude what is already clear to anyone who bothers to pay attention, then that's up to you.
  52. #802
    I don't just talk out of my ass, like you I talk out of my my ass and my mouth.

    Your source of information is the internet. Your source of information is not the expert advisers that the govt have access to. That's the end of that discussion.

    Now, your defense is we don't know what advice the gov't were getting
    ...or why they chose the options they did. Of course they had a range of opinions, and that just makes it all the more messier.

    But hey, if you want to wait another 18 months for an inquiry can conclude what is already clear to anyone who bothers to pay attention, then that's up to you.
    I want to wait for an inquiry before holding people to account because that is how we do things here. "Clear" and "proven" are totally different words. Nothing is proven.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  53. #803
    She doesn't answer a single question the whole 9 minutes.

  54. #804
    This is the FT report she hasn't read, or pretends she hasn't read.

    https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-...3-e239799fa6ab
  55. #805
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Your source of information is the internet. Your source of information is not the expert advisers that the govt have access to. That's the end of that discussion.
    There's a lot of good sources of information on the internet, if you bother to look for them. Experts with real credentials and everything like the three I named above and others. They have websites, blogs, twitter accounts, etc. It's really fascinating, you should look some time.
  56. #806
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Here's the clarification...



    This is what inquiries are for, to put people like this under oath. If he says this under the threat of perjury, I'll believe him.

    Yeah, doesn't sound dodgy at all. Let's wait 18 months to see if he was telling the truth the first time or the second time.

    Even the BBC is having to admit they're fucking up now.

  57. #807
    "Our model shows that more people have had CV in Sweden than live in the country."

    "Oh wait, forgot to divide by something. Hold on..."

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidni.../#143a7f643494
  58. #808
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  59. #809
    Hmm, I didn't know the scientific advice was to ignore offers from local firms to provide PPE. If it was, then maybe it's time to hire some different scientists.

  60. #810
    Quote Originally Posted by poop
    Yeah, doesn't sound dodgy at all. Let's wait 18 months to see if he was telling the truth the first time or the second time.
    Let's at least wait until it's under control. Obviously 18 months is not an ideal length of time to wait for an inquiry, if that's how long it takes. It should begin immediately after it's under control. That's probably wishful thinking, but I still prefer to draw conclusions from an inquiry than from the media.

    This claim that the UK has 41k deaths, imagine if it were wrong. Why should the government be wasting time and resources defending themselves against such reckless claims?

    I can't figure out how they go from this...

    Excess deaths from all causes stand 16,952 above the seasonal average across the UK since fatalities from Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, began to mount in mid-March.
    to this...

    Using this calculation, a conservative estimate of UK excess deaths by April 21 was 41,102.
    The first figure is roughly in line with official figures. They cite a four day lag, and suddenly the number more than doubles? Can you figure out how they came to this conclusion?

    This is a FT analysis and it seems to me they have plucked this number out of thin air.

    And that clip of the care minister, whoever she is, it's immediately clear that it's ambush journalism. Just look at the smug recline of the presenter when she sums up her first attack. This is just one reason why I hate the MSM. It's knee jerk open mouthed outrage journalism, not a sincere attempt to report the news and ask reasoned questions. Someone made a five hour round trip to get tested? They might live in fucking Thurso for all we know. And who cares? Five hours is nothing if you're driving in USA. I stopped watching after three minutes, how many times did the presenter mention the five hour trip? It was three times already by the time I got bored.

    The problem with trial by media is that journalists are insincere, and politicians are insincere; it's all propaganda from govt, cynical opportunism from the opposition, and baiting from the media. Media want views and clicks, politicians want votes. None of them can be trusted. Again, it's why I like inquiries, because when someone is under threat of perjury, they tend to be a lot more sincere.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  61. #811
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    Hmm, I didn't know the scientific advice was to ignore offers from local firms to provide PPE. If it was, then maybe it's time to hire some different scientists.

    This is better. It's still politicians doing politics, but it's at least the right forum to be pressing the govt into action.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  62. #812
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    The first figure is roughly in line with official figures. They cite a four day lag, and suddenly the number more than doubles? Can you figure out how they came to this conclusion?.

    You're referring to this graph?



    The bottom line is the reported deaths from CV in the UK. These official figures only include deaths in hospitals from CV; that's all the gov't counts, but it is updated daily. ONS looks at total deaths from all causes, but the numbers are four days behind the reporting date (it takes four days to register a death with ONS apparently). The last ONS report was Apr. 10. So ONS numbers are only available up to Apr. 6 (something like ~18k excess deaths from all causes, on a day when the 'official' total was ~8k CV deaths).

    Based on total deaths vs. deaths in hospitals from CV, FT extrapolated the excess death numbers to the days between Apr. 7 and now. The idea is that for every x people reported as CV deaths, we can assume x * y excess deaths are occurring for a given period.

    So, e.g., if 800 people died in hospital from CV yesterday, they might assume that based on past trends, that equates to 1800 excess deaths overall. If it were 400 hospital CV deaths, they would assume the same relative number (in this e.g., 900) excess deaths overall.

    Could these assumptions be wrong? Possibly, but they're at least based on past data, so they give an appearance of being sensible. FT claimed that the formula they use has been on the conservative side in the past (presumably between when CV deaths began and Apr. 6).
    Last edited by Poopadoop; 04-22-2020 at 04:57 PM.
  63. #813
    Ok I can at least see where they plucked that number from. I missed the part where ONS figures only date up to 10th April. And of course I'm aware our numbers are currently underreported, I'd just be very surprised if it was to this degree.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  64. #814
    lol, what a fucking dingbat.

  65. #815
    Demoted for resisting Trump's demands to pursue stupid avenues of research.

    I believe this transfer was in response to my insistence that the government invest the billions of dollars allocated by Congress to address the Covid-19 pandemic into safe and scientifically vetted solutions, and not in drugs, vaccines and other technologies that lack scientific merit
    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/22/p...ent/index.html
  66. #816
    The WHO are now estimating that half of Europe's covid victims are in care homes. If this is true, it correlates with the figure that the FT have proposed, but it would also suggest most of Europe will also be vastly underreporting their numbers.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  67. #817
    I don't know about all of the countries, but I know FRA start including care home CV deaths at one point about three weeks ago and their numbers suddenly doubled that same day and stayed up.
  68. #818
    There is a part of me that thinks the world should have acted together on this, not just to fight CV but also to take the opportunity to fight other infections like flu. Had the entire world gone into a hardcore lockdown for a month at the same time, that would have been very bad news for the flu virus, as well as covid. Of course it's ludicrous to think we could eradicate it entirely, but it would certainly have had an impact. Our semi-lockdown has probably done this to a lesser degree. Of course there will be lots of other diseases having a rough time right now thanks to our increased hygiene and social distancing.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  69. #819
    I'm getting a bit bored of these clapathons. I feel like we're having one every day. Can't people show their appreciation by just observing social distancing and saying thanks to key workers when you encounter them?
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  70. #820
    It's one minute once a week for the NHS. Not sure what other clapathons are going on right now, are there others? I'm sure it doesn't hurt to show our support for NHS workers, but yeah they'd probably prefer we stayed inside and knitted them some PPE.
  71. #821
    I saw a local one being advertised on facebook, for shop workers. I mean I'm obviously full of praise for the low paid workers that have the grind on so we can all eat, but do I really have to show that praise visually by clapping? Can't I just say thank you when I go to Tesco?
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  72. #822
    "The government's secret science group has a shocking lack of expertise."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ntists-medical
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  73. #823
    Help me out here. The 23 people that the Guardian have somehow identified, is that the entire SAGE group? If not, how can they know there are no molecular virologists? Best I can tell, there isn't any in the 23 identified. And how is gender and ethnic balance even a consideration here? Who gives a fuck about this in a team that should be 100% based on merit?

    If this is everyone, then certainly questions need to be answered with regards to the scientific diversity of this committee. But you know what I'm going to say, don't you? The only reliable answers to these questions will come under oath.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  74. #824
    It's all 23 according to the G.

    Here's a list:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...overnment-sage
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  75. #825
    I'd be interested to know how they can be so sure. It's supposedly a secret committee, the govt didn't want these people to be known. Why, idk, perhaps because they could become targets for terrorists or state actors, but if the govt are secretive about this, how can a newspaper know if there's only 23?
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong

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