WILDCARD B1@#e$

About to post an update with a hand analysis, but have to post this hand first just for lols.

Stacks:
UTG kittylee71 ($42.87)
CO Hero ($25)
BTN artist666 ($25.97)
SB Monkey or Robot ($26.95)
BB Your Kryptonit3 ($25)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 5 players) Hero is CO
kittylee71 calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.10, 1 fold, Monkey or Robot calls $1, 1 fold, kittylee71 calls $0.85

Flop: ($3.55, 3 players)
Monkey or Robot checks, kittylee71 checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($3.55, 3 players)
Monkey or Robot bets $1.75, kittylee71 folds, Hero calls $1.75

River: ($7.05, 2 players)
Monkey or Robot checks, Hero bets $5.25, Monkey or Robot goes all-in $24.10, Hero calls $16.90

Final Pot: $53.30
Monkey or Robot shows

Hero shows

Update post:

# hands played this week: 4300
# hours played this week: 12.43
# sessions played this week: 9
Like last week, I also watched some vids and I'd estimate study time this week to be around 4 hours.

Total profit on the week: $159.94
Current BR: $970.66

Several months ago my BR reached 4 digits for the first time ever. I played about 1/2 a @ 50NL for the first time (only 1 table) and after losing about 2/3 of a buy in pretty quickly I decided to grind 25NL a bit more and give myself more of a cushion before moving up for good. Well, I went on to lose about 15 buyins @25NL and decided my game needed major work. Currently I'm making much better decisions and feel really good about my game. I'm looking forward to moving up to 50NL for good. Any thoughts about 1100.00 as a good number for moving up??

Hand Analysis:

Villain in this hand is 31/19/6.0AF with 5.3% 3bet. I'm not sure exactly when this hand occurred and how many hands I had on him at the time. From what I remember his VPIP was in the 30's (so in my mind he was clearly a fish given the high VPIP and non-full stack) and I think his AF was around 4.0.


$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem

Stacks:
UTG Yuras007 ($7.76)
UTG+1 Hero ($25)
CO LordSpaceball ($9.93)
BTN Kurya ($27.12)
SB buliga87 ($19.62)
BB Funnybearrr ($25)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.85, 2 folds, buliga87 calls $0.75, 1 fold

Raising KTs in MP may be a little bit marginal in general, but in this case its very good since there is a fish in the blinds that we want to play lots of pots with. Maybe I could have made the raise a bit smaller since there is a short stack to our immediate left.

Flop: ($1.95, 2 players)
buliga87 checks, Hero bets $1.50, buliga87 raises to $3, Hero calls $1.50

The fish calls as expected and we see a somewhat dry flop. However, there are still lots of worse hands that can call us so I decide to make a value bet. I think that his range for seeing the flop is something like this:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 80.216% 79.03% 01.19% 231584 3480.00 { KsTs }
Hand 1: 19.784% 18.60% 01.19% 54496 3480.00 { QdQh, QdQs, JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, 54s, AQo-A8o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

So we're pretty far ahead of his range at this point (at first I forgot to put the flop cards into PS and I was pretty surprised because we only have 51% equity but eventually I figured it out lol ). I'm going to call his flop checking range basically the same since I don't think he's going to donk lead with very many hands.

Normally I'm inclined to give flop check/raises a lot of respect at 25NL since they're usually the nuts. However, imo this case is different for three reasons:

1. This guy seems like an aggro donk rather than a passive donk so I think he can be bluffing here a lot of the time.
2. He makes his raise a min raise which looks very weak
3. He's not repping very many made hands at all given the board texture (basically just 33, 22, and MAYBE 32s if he even plays it) He also might c/r TP in spots like this, but that doesn't make very much sense because he can't really have AK while we can ourselves, and I don't think c/ring KQ or KJ would be his first option over c/c in this spot.

So, given these factors I like a call here. A raise doesn't accomplish a whole lot because if he's bluffing then we just get him to fold when we're already ahead and if he's value betting he'll probably shove and we have to fold.

Here's a rough range for his flop c/r:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.102% 62.10% 00.00% 25207 0.00 { KsTs }
Hand 1: 37.898% 37.90% 00.00% 15383 0.00 { 44-22, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad2d, QdJd, QdTd, Qd9d, JTs, Jd9d, 98s, 87s, 54s }

I included 44, 98s, 87s as just random bluffs that don't make very much sense but that he decides to raise nonetheless. We're still doing pretty good equity wise vs this range.


Turn: ($7.95, 2 players)
buliga87 checks, Hero checks

Obviously the 3 is a great card for us because it reduces even more the amount of value hands he can have. This is probably the part of the hand where I'm the most unsure of what to do. I could def see us being able to get value from draws by betting something like $3.50. But, he may just fold his weak draws and his air when these hands might be a river when we check behind, especially on blank rivers. I think betting and checking are both good here, I'm just not sure which one is best. I think his range remains nearly the same except I think we can also discount 222 a bit because he would probably lead the turn with it some % of the time.


River: ($7.95, 2 players)
buliga87 bets $15.77, $15.77 to Hero ($21.15)?

Imo this bet on the river looks pretty FOS. For one, if he had a K here I think there's about a 0% chance he's making this bet. But we didn't think he had very many K's in his range at this point anyway. 888 is probably also not very likely as it doesn't make sense to c/r it on the flop and there aren't many combos of 88's (although this doesn't mean he can't have it). Also, if he had 222 he might play it like this but I think its equally likely (if not more likely) that he just makes a bet he thinks will get called a lot of the time (for example $6.00).

Given that I really don't see many value hands in his range and he can have all sorts of missed draws, I think this is a pretty easy call.

Any comments/thoughts are appreciated!

Update:
Tomorrow I fly home for the holidays. Looking forward to seeing my brother and the rest of the family back in the states. Not looking forward to the 5am wake up for an 8am flight and a solid 18 hours of traveling. It was pretty neat living in another country for 2 months, I def enjoyed the experience. If I don't hear from my employer in the next 3-4 weeks I'll probably come back down to Colombia.


# hands played this week: 2535
# hours played this week: 6.56
# sessions played this week: 7
I tend to play less when I have several losing sessions in a row..

Total profit on the week: $-102.86
Current BR: $889.40

The losses are probably a combination of run bad and tilt, I'd say mostly run bad.

Hand Analysis:
In the op I talked about hands where I have a strong hand against someone I know I can get a ton of value from. Sometimes we have to fold these hands and when this happens I don't get really mad, but I do go from an excited to neutral state of mind. This change in mindset can influence me to pause for a little bit and search for reasons to make a bad call, which I sometimes end up doing. I haven't analyzed the hand below yet, but I believe it was an opportunity to make one of these bad calls. We'll see if this is the case after the analysis.


Villain is 20/11/0.8 over 105 hands. Not sure if I had these exact stats when this hand was played but I'm pretty sure they were similar and he had passive looking stats at that point.

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
4 Players

Stacks:
CO ure a towel ($45.97)
BTN yj_rs ($26.10)
SB j-doggie89 ($10.59)
BB Hero ($30.45)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 4 players) Hero is BB
1 fold, yj_rs raises to $0.85, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.50, yj_rs calls $1.65

Pretty standard 3-bet against someone who is probably going to call with a ton of hands. Not much to talk about here.

Flop: ($5.10, 2 players)
Hero bets $3, yj_rs calls $3

This is my standard cbet size in a 3b pot, I don't really see too much reason to make it a whole lot larger since we can easily get the money in by the river.

Obviously at this point his cbet calling range depends on his PF 3-bet calling range. Since I don't have too great an idea how he reacts to 3-bets, all the ranges I give him from now on are just going to be guestimates. I think he can call the cbet on the flop with any K in his range (maybe K9+), all J's in his range (maybe JT+), some pp's (88+), and some draws (random club FD's, QT, T9, AQ), and then probably some other random shit. We're ahead of everything except sets right now.

Turn: ($11.10, 2 players)
Hero bets $5.75, yj_rs calls $5.75

I think the turn bet size could be bigger, although it does set us up for slightly larger than 1/2 pot shove (eff stacks) on river.

River: ($22.60, 2 players)
Hero checks, yj_rs bets $14.85, $14.85 to Hero ($19.2)?

Here is where I'm the most lost on this hand. Obviously the Q is a terrible card for our hand as KQ and QJ just made two pair. I really can't decide if I want to shove this river myself or just c/f. Here's a guess for what his calling range might be:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.032% 29.03% 00.00% 18 0.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 70.968% 70.97% 00.00% 44 0.00 { JdJh, JdJs, JhJs, AKs, KTs+, QJs, T9s, AKo, KTo+, QJo, T9o }

Against a player who seems as passive as this guy, I don't expect him to shove himself very many hands that we're ahead of (when we check the river).

Ok so I'm still a bit confused on the river but I think its a check and fold if he shoves and call if he makes some retardedly small bet.