Damn it's tough to stay at the top of the page in Blogs and Operations these days! :P

Here's another hand from yesterday. On the river I called because I thought that he would have bet all his 8= out draws on the turn to try to take down the pot when he had good FE and good PE. There was 2 things I didn't consider though which change things a lot;

1) I didn't have any read on him at all. I don't think it's correct for me to assume that a random and probably fishy 2/4 player will bet this turn here with all his draws.
2) For him to c/c the turn here he can only ever have 2 types of hands, hands that are weak showdown value hands on this river (9x, Jx 88 etc) and hands which make completed draw on this river (QT, clubs). Assuming he will never turn a marginal made hand into a bluff (which most players wont) then his range on this river is effectively straights, flushes and maaaybe 8T or KJ.

I don't wanna bother pokerstoving this right now but I think that when I consider these 2 points the river becomes a fold.
$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($697.30)
Hero (CO) ($513.10)
BTN ($574.00)
SB ($214.70)
BB ($372.00)

Pre-flop: ($6, 5 players) Hero is CO
UTG calls $4, Hero raises to $18, 3 folds, UTG calls $14

Flop: ($42, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($42, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $32, UTG calls $32

River: ($106, 2 players)
UTG bets $79.50, $79.50 to Hero ($463.10)?