Rags To Riches Redeux

1. Ok I think you need to reconsider his flop raise/continuing range. Given we've seen him display a pretty stationy nature in previous hands, donk/calling medium strength hands, I'd actually say you have pretty much close to 0 fold equity on this flop after he 3-bets. So, does he do this with enough worse draws that getting it in now will be superior to flatting and playing fit or fold vs all the top pair+ he's never folding pretty much regardless of how the board runs out? If he doesn't have many draws here to bet/3bet the flop and I think this is kind of likely given I'd expect him to just donk/call these, I'd probably call instead and play more fit or fold. Don't get me wrong it's close depending on whether he does this with JT worse clubs and then stacks off, and getting it in is certainly +EV. If however, we can't give him many draws when he takes this line, our EV catapults by calling down with huge implied odds, only shovelling stacks in when we make our hand. Even if he goes into station checking mode, we can still town his soul on cards that make our hand and value bet the shit out of Ts, clubs and maybe even As if he stops hammering on the turn.

So yeah, in general, in spots where we have no FE vs a fish and have a draw we're way better off playing fit or fold since we get his money all the time when we make our hand anyway, and lose half a stack less when we don't.

If I gave him every worse draw I'd obv defo ship the flop, I just don't wanna give him that many though based on how passive he's been. If he'd been more retarded and aggro on flops before I'd also like a ship since we could fold out Qx he has no idea what he's doiung with or other peices of shit like 77. Again don't think he has much of this here when he 3 bets the flop. Thus, I'd prolly expect his range to be mostly Kx KQ 44 which is all the nuts to him.

I think it's kinda close based on his freq for having these other 2 types of hands that make us wanna ship, if he's been getting tilted/frustrated I can defo see throwing more of them into his range. Don't neccessarily hate your play, bra, jus sayin.

/rant

2. This obv depends on two things A: Is he spazzy enough to shove bustoed draws on this river? B: Does he not bet the turn with busto draws if he wants to take a shot?

I wouldn't give him all these combos of Tx since he's clearly just gonna call these on the river the vast majority of the time. I'd polarise his range to Kx and bluffs, even most fish can see a flush is not a big hand on this river. You need to be good so infrequently so if you can give him something like

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.435% 30.43% 00.00% 14 0.00 { JdJh }
Hand 1: 69.565% 69.57% 00.00% 32 0.00 { AKs, AJs, K8s+, QJs, AKo, AJo, KTo+, QJo

You can call. I don't think calling can be much of a mistake here given how spazzy he looks.

Rags To Riches Redeux

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09-30-2010 12:34 PM #1
Carroters View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message View Blog Entries Visit Homepage Join Date Mar 2008 Posts 2,814 Location Da Amberlamps	1. Ok I think you need to reconsider his flop raise/continuing range. Given we've seen him display a pretty stationy nature in previous hands, donk/calling medium strength hands, I'd actually say you have pretty much close to 0 fold equity on this flop after he 3-bets. So, does he do this with enough worse draws that getting it in now will be superior to flatting and playing fit or fold vs all the top pair+ he's never folding pretty much regardless of how the board runs out? If he doesn't have many draws here to bet/3bet the flop and I think this is kind of likely given I'd expect him to just donk/call these, I'd probably call instead and play more fit or fold. Don't get me wrong it's close depending on whether he does this with JT worse clubs and then stacks off, and getting it in is certainly +EV. If however, we can't give him many draws when he takes this line, our EV catapults by calling down with huge implied odds, only shovelling stacks in when we make our hand. Even if he goes into station checking mode, we can still town his soul on cards that make our hand and value bet the shit out of Ts, clubs and maybe even As if he stops hammering on the turn. So yeah, in general, in spots where we have no FE vs a fish and have a draw we're way better off playing fit or fold since we get his money all the time when we make our hand anyway, and lose half a stack less when we don't. If I gave him every worse draw I'd obv defo ship the flop, I just don't wanna give him that many though based on how passive he's been. If he'd been more retarded and aggro on flops before I'd also like a ship since we could fold out Qx he has no idea what he's doiung with or other peices of shit like 77. Again don't think he has much of this here when he 3 bets the flop. Thus, I'd prolly expect his range to be mostly Kx KQ 44 which is all the nuts to him. I think it's kinda close based on his freq for having these other 2 types of hands that make us wanna ship, if he's been getting tilted/frustrated I can defo see throwing more of them into his range. Don't neccessarily hate your play, bra, jus sayin. /rant 2. This obv depends on two things A: Is he spazzy enough to shove bustoed draws on this river? B: Does he not bet the turn with busto draws if he wants to take a shot? I wouldn't give him all these combos of Tx since he's clearly just gonna call these on the river the vast majority of the time. I'd polarise his range to Kx and bluffs, even most fish can see a flush is not a big hand on this river. You need to be good so infrequently so if you can give him something like equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 30.435% 30.43% 00.00% 14 0.00 { JdJh } Hand 1: 69.565% 69.57% 00.00% 32 0.00 { AKs, AJs, K8s+, QJs, AKo, AJo, KTo+, QJo You can call. I don't think calling can be much of a mistake here given how spazzy he looks.