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 Originally Posted by daven
you name the rules dude, i guess i was thinking that if you somehow box 10k in the first three weeks then it's ez game to play a lot of hours at 5nl. But that was ridiculous on my part. Excluding fpps makes it simpler, but makes the profit mark way harder. I'm neutral, and looking forward to seeing what odds you put down on this. Enjoy the rest of europe yo!
also, re the fpps/profit joke comment from !luck, having fpps saved doesn't help. HEM screenshot showing mgr gives us an indication of vpps earned, plus i trust m2m not to pull any shit on this. Hell, if this prop bet makes him put 1k at risk and inspires him to grind more than ever then it's +EV for him, even if he doesn't hit the 10k profit mark - that's why i don't feel like scum for betting against him
regarding the fpps thing, I can take a screenshot of my year to date vpps then take another when the bet is over, then use the vpp/hand rate determined by PT3 to figure out the dollar value based on my Supernova status how much money that would equal.
or more simply put, say I earn 30,000 vpps during the bet. based on the Supernova multiplier that is 3.5 x 30,000vpp = 105,000 fpps. Multiply the 105,500 fpps times the best available fpps rate for supernova's (.016 x 105,000) and you have $1,680 dollar value.
imo its sick for me to ever make 10k in less than a month including fpps seeing as ill mostly be playing 100nl anyway and i dont even mass table.
keep in mind i am drunk as hell writing this post however, i think reasonable terms would be $10,000 in 28 days earned minimum and have some sort of stipulation where i cant play more than 50% of my volume higher than 100nl USD to make it harder to earn money just rakeback whoring so that i probably need at least 8k worth of table profit at best and just ignore the milestone bonuses etc. for this and only count fpps at supernova value.
plus im lazy as fuck and will go all out for the first 3 days then suicide.
now that u have terms lets hear the odds u offer i think something liek 2:1 is fair given the fpps clause tho im open tosuggestions if you have a good explanation cuz i doubt id be able to pull this off consistently and its probably even -ev for me in the short term - i.e. this single bet that is - however i think there may be some long term benefits of taking on such a challenge to make it worth my effort despite the fact i feel im a slight dog given the work load im going to take on which, given my history/style/results/lazzeifaire approach to poker just isnt anywhere near simple.
holla
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