Hey there Robb. Sorry, completly missed the essay comp, congrats on winning. Some comments occurred to me, thought I'd mention them here.

You kind of mention this, and hopefully folks can work it out, but your maths at the beginning of how -EV it is to have a wide FTC ratio when stealing ONLY takes into account the times the light 3-bettor in the blinds 3-bets you. Very few even light 3-bettors will 3-bet 100% of the time no matter how wide you're stealing. So you might lose 2BB per hand the times you get 3-bet, but that ignores the 1.5BB per hand you win when you dont. Maths is a bit beyond me atm, but it would be a mistake to make too many adjustments (i.e., stealing less) until you start getting 3bet a LOT.

Point 3 - hurt but dont alert, I pretty much ignore this these days. In reality I just dont find people can adjust well enough to make a difference. More and more I just pound on TAGs in the blinds when I'm in position.

I guess the point is (and again you make this point, just I think I take it further) unless villains are adjusting enough to make a meaningful difference, being exploitable isnt a bad thing. Obviously the higher you get the more villains will be capable of this, but I'd wait until I see the adjustment before allowing for it.


Really good article. A few things I've been blindly stumbling towards that you outline clearly, and a few things I hadnt considered that I found really useful. I got a lot out of it.