operation: same as everyone else

"so, why aren't you more often 3-betting co opens when you have the bu? everything plus position..."

i'm trying to work on "blind defense" for the time being. i think that's probably currently my biggest leak in the blind stealing/defense game. that said, i really do want to start 3betting wider in position and being more aggressive in those spots.

"fr i think you can be within 10BB/100 of breakeven from the blinds at micros"

by this do you mean that an acceptable lose rate from the blinds is between -1 and -10BB/100?

"so is W$WSD"

i've never considered this stat in my life. i'm not sure i know how to.

"also, what does your analysis lead you to think regarding opening buttons to 2.5x with your entire range vs regs in the blinds? "

i currently size my my whole BU ATS range for 0.6 at 25nl. and 0.75 in the CO. i think it's a great idea. especially vs all the 10/9 guys etc who probably fold 94% their blinds 94% of the time.

thanks for the comments

holy shit new page. anyway, here's a hand where i took a non-standard line. i think he saw me as pretty FOS when i lead the turn. he's generally aggressive player. with the exception of pocket 6's, i cannot think of a single hand which doesn't bet that flop, and which can stand a turn bet/3bet.

villain is 22/18/1.6 (3b)
with 60% cbet, 63% ATS

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($26.63)
Hero (BB) ($25)
UTG ($25.35)
UTG+1 ($27.85)
MP1 ($30.74)
MP2 ($23.92)
MP3 ($22.11)
CO ($32.50)
Button ($25)
Preflop: Hero is BB with J, A
5 folds, CO bets $0.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.50
Flop: ($1.60) K, 2, Q (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks
Turn: ($1.60) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $1, CO raises to $3.25, Hero raises to $7.25, 1 fold
Total pot: $8.10 | Rake: $0.40

i realise i rep KQ,22, and 66 only. but fuck him. his range is weak and if he's a good enough hand reader to 4bet bluff me here or flat with KJ then nh sir.

Originally Posted by rpm

i realise i rep KQ,22, and 66 only. but fuck him. his range is weak and if he's a good enough hand reader to 4bet bluff me here or flat with KJ then nh sir.

I agree with this.

I think you can do this kind of stuff a lot because most of these guys either don't hand read or can hand read a tad (this hand) and show aggression against weird lines but do it so it's extremely easy to just repop them if that makes sense.

Like a lot of times I see some TAGish player who's pretty aggro postflop raise a cbet on a K72r board. Easy click it back.

Also just read you're working blind defense. I mentioned a few weeks ago in my blog I was doing the same and then I noticed a ton of people thinking about the same thing coincidentally on this site and others. Let me know if you want to talk about/look at anything specifically.

Originally Posted by daven

fr i think you can be within 10BB/100 of breakeven from the blinds at micros
sh i think you can do even better

I don't know about SH. Are you talking about BB or SB play? Obv. we have fold our blind more in FR because there's 3 extra seats but I'm finding people at 10NL/25NL FR to be much less aggro in the blinds meaning we can probably over compensate by stealing more, 3betting more and 4betting more. Also flatting 3bets because a lot of them are clueless postflop in 3bet pots if they were bluffing. Small sample though.

Originally Posted by rpm

by this do you mean that an acceptable lose rate from the blinds is between -1 and -10BB/100?

that's my theory, i'm sure there is a consensus 'acceptable' winrate out there somewhere, but i figure you can get close to breakeven.

Originally Posted by rpm

"so is W$WSD"

i've never considered this stat in my life. i'm not sure i know how to.

do you think it's better to bluff an 80% W$WSD or a 30%?
should your defence range vary depending on which type is stealing?

Originally Posted by rpm

"also, what does your analysis lead you to think regarding opening buttons to 2.5x with your entire range vs regs in the blinds? "

i currently size my my whole BU ATS range for 0.6 at 25nl. and 0.75 in the CO. i think it's a great idea. especially vs all the 10/9 guys etc who probably fold 94% their blinds 94% of the time.

awesome, and the 0.6 at 25nl means the % of times you need to win for the steal to be +EV in a vacuum is less than when you 3x it, etc. It also fucks with their 3betting cos they don't really know how big to 3b oop when they stand to make so little out of the bet if you fold.

Originally Posted by kmind

I don't know about SH. Are you talking about BB or SB play?

both

preflop isn't the only place where the money is in blind play, well, not directly. Like, you should always be thinking of how to get extra value out of villains post-flop when you're playing right? dunno, what do you think of the c-raise blinds hands i just posted in my op? earning a few extra BB is cool?

Originally Posted by kmind

Let me know if you want to talk about/look at anything specifically.

anything and everything. do you use irc much at all? i don't usually but i've been making an effort to engage myself in some HH discussion etc there lately. otherwise i guess we both have blogs where we can post ideas/discuss/crit other's ideas etc.

Daven - I agree that c/r flops is even more +EV in a lot of cases. This is actually something I'm working on deeply. Mainly figuring out how certain flops hit opening ranges and stuff. But I'm just saying that at least in SH it seems like people play back at me much more. I plan on testing this out though to know for sure. I also didn't notice you said "BB" instead of "bb". I leak BIG time in the blinds but I think getting down to 10BB/100 in the big blind seems pretty tough to do but I am now determined to make you correct.

rpm - Honestly, I have cut ties with like everyone on the internet outside of the boards. I get on skype occassional and am trying to get on AIM/MSN more but I don't have IRC anymore. I'm at the gf's for another week and won't have much time to study this stuff but I still find a little bit of time here and there. I'll PM you my AIM/MSN/skype names.

i've decided i'm going to post the biggest pots i've lost so far this month and analyse them just for some range/combo counting practice. and to maybe find some leaks. i don't really need to post this one because i know it's the worst call i've made since 'nam or before. this guy was an 83/45 spazz. he was opening for anywhere between 8x and 20x, and rarely folding to 3bets. he also had donk-jammed air on the flop previously after he'd opened 10x, and flatted a 3bet OOP. i mention none of that in defense of my play here. i'm not sure there was even a conscious thought which occurred in my mind in the time frame between his all-in and my call.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP3 ($25.61)
CO ($31.55)
Button ($25)
SB ($67.15)
Hero (BB) ($46.15)
UTG ($13.12)
UTG+1 ($29.77)
MP1 ($12.64)
MP2 ($23.59)
Preflop: Hero is BB with K, K
UTG calls $0.25, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.25, 4 folds, SB bets $2.40, Hero raises $8.75, 2 folds, SB calls $6.50
Flop: ($18.50) 10, A, 10 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($18.50) 10 (2 players)
SB bets $58.15 (All-In), Hero calls $37.15 (All-In)
River: ($92.80) Q (2 players, 2 all-in)
Total pot: $92.80

Preflop
he probably has like all pairs, aces, broadways, whole heap of suited shit.

Flop
i don't think this guy has any logic or thought behind his table decisions, and thus far they had been hugely erratic, i'll just leave his range unchanged due to having no idea of it's actual size or how he plays it.

Turn
so he jams and i need 37.15 / 18.5 + (2*37.15) = ~40% equity.
i'll assume he has all Ax in his range, of which there are

A2-A9 (96)
AT (3)
AJ-AQ (24)
AK(6)

and any broadway card/T combo
KT (2)
QT (3)
JT (3)

plus T9 (3), T8 (3)

thats 143 combos that beat me. seeing as i need 40%, he needs to be jamming ~100 combos i do beat. that's basically all i wanted to get out of posting this.

jam pre, snap fold turn

What daven said. I wouldn't just shove preflop but not sure if daven meant that.

Anyways, your posts are very good and I think you'll get a lot better pretty soon if you keep up this work ethic. Very jealous of it. I think that's my biggest leak.

thanks kmind. as for the hand. i agree. i was almost too shy to post just because of how bad i played, but i figured if it decreases the likelihood of me ever making a tilt call like that again then i might as well.

Originally Posted by kmind

I think you'll get a lot better pretty soon if you keep up this work ethic. Very jealous of it. I think that's my biggest leak.

um, what about fps and leveling yourself to death

villain here is 29/0 over 24. no significant reads.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP3 ($34.33)
CO ($15.40)
Button ($37.63)
SB ($25.12)
BB ($25)
UTG ($25.35)
UTG+1 ($26.76)
Hero (MP1) ($25.95)
MP2 ($10)
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, Q
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, Hero bets $1, 6 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.75
Flop: ($2.35) 5, Q, J (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $2, UTG+1 calls $2
Turn: ($6.35) 4 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $5.25, UTG+1 calls $5.25
River: ($16.85) 2 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $17.70 (All-In), UTG+1 calls $17.70
Total pot: $52.25

Preflop
hasn't PFR'd yet over the tiny sample. i'm going to assume he raises at least JJ+,AK. something like:
22-TT, A7-AQs, ATo-AQo, KTs+, KJo+, QTs+, QJo, T9s-65s, T8s-86s
which stove tells me is ~15%

Flop range w/combos
55(3),AQ(6),AJ(9),AT(12),KTs(4),KJ(12),KQ(8),QTs(3 ),QJ(6),T9s(4)s,98s(4),A7cc-A9cc(3),65cc-87cc(3)

~87 combinations. i imagine i have something like 65-70% equity vs this range. i'll check it after i finish. (edit: 66%)

Turn
brickiest brick in the deck. i imagine his calling largely the same, minus Jx, AT, and 98hh, 98ss, 98dd

55(3),AQ(6),KTs(4),KQ(8),QTs(3),QJ(6),T9(4)s,A7cc-A9cc(3),65cc-98cc(3)

down to 39 combinations.
6 one pair combos with 50% equity
11 one pair combos i beat
7 two pair/set combos
15 draws with ~18% equity on average

i'm guessing i have ~75% equity against his calling range (edit: only 60%). at the time i thought the fact that he C/C'd flop and turn made his range even weaker (as opposed to his turn C/R or donk range), but he showed up with 55 so that was obviously a wrong assumption.

River
another complete brick. now i'm just gonna fuck about with calling ranges to get a feel for value betting here.

so i decided to jam for roughly pot. because i'm all in and can't be re-bluffed, i need 50% or greater equity for my bet to be +EV. i'm gonna start with the part of his range that beats me then add in worse combos incrementally. because that seems to help me get a feel for this stuff.


55,AQ,KTs,KQ,QTs,QJ,T9s,A7cc-A9cc,65cc-98cc was his turn range

55 and QJ have me beat and amount to 7 combinations. i have 0% against this.

so if he has KQ 100% in his preflop, flop, and turn range, and calls the river at 100% frequency (8 combos), value betting was +EV. if KQ can be discounted for any reason (ie he might raise it pre, or might fold it some non-zero % on the river) then i was just value-towning myself. not sure what i think here. it felt marginal to jam the river but i just saw his 29 VPIP and thought "fuck it, he's probably a station". not sure if thats sound logic or not though. maybe i'm just being results-oriented. thoughts?

our buddy here is 21/13 over 48. but i think i had only played with from his first post of the BB to current hand. so no real reads or stats at the time. i posted this in irc and yaawn and carroters gave me some helpful advice. initially i intended to bet/fold the turn. but didn't consider the small SPR before i made that plan and talked myself into calling his shove (i probably actually had to call because he has 6 combos of QQ, not sure). anyhow.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG+1 ($10.35)
MP1 ($25.35)
MP2 ($48.25)
MP3 ($52.21)
CO ($25)
Button ($24.55)
SB ($25)
Hero (BB) ($25)
UTG ($30.98)
Preflop: Hero is BB with K, K
4 folds, MP3 bets $0.75, 3 folds, Hero raises $2.50, MP3 calls $2
Flop: ($5.60) 4, J, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $3.25, MP3 calls $3.25
Turn: ($12.10) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $6.50, MP3 raises $46.21 (All-In), Hero calls $12.50 (All-In)
River: ($50.10) 8 (2 players, 2 all-in)
Total pot: $50.10

Preflop
he opens probably large and pretty irrelevant range. i pot it because i am OOP, and i have KK. he calls with:

22-QQ,AJs+,AQo+. this is purely arbitrary because i had no idea about his play at the time. but it seems standard. setmining here is pretty marginal unless he knows im a super nit, as he only has ~12:1, so if i'm 3betting anything more than KK+ he's going to have some trouble showing a profit but whateverr.

Flop
i bet smaller than i normally would because it seemed like a way ahead/behind spot, and i had the idea in my mind that a standard betsizing adjustment in WA/WB spots is smaller. he flats with a range of

33 (3), 44 (3), JJ (3) QQ (6), AJs (3)
a lot of villains probably peel one with 88-TT here to cuz i so obviously have AK cuz i raised it. i'll say he has 9 of 18 total combos of these hands (3 of 6 possible combos of each)

Turn
this is the street i think i played the worst BECAUSE I DIDNT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE SPR WHEN I MADE MY DECISION. i wasn't sure there was any value in betting. he now folds 88-99, and calls with 12 set combos, 3 AJs combos, and 6 QQ cobmos. however bet/folding seemed like the right thing to do rather than check/guess. it's all well and good if he checks behind, but check/folding and check/calling without a river plan seemed far worse than betting and making him play straightforward. if i'd noted the SPR i would NOT have bet here. because the pot is too big to bet/fold an overpair here. so anyway i made the mistake of deciding to bet/fold then he jammed and i got

12.5 / 12.10 + 13 + (2*12.5) = ~25%

so if he has 12 set combinations and 6 of QQ, then i have 33% equity and had to call. but i shouldn't have put myself (and wouldn't have, had i been alert enough to notice the SPR) in such a spot where i bet and got jammed over by a range which crushed me, yet had to call.

thoughts regarding the optimal play on the flop/turn would be appreciated.

villain here is 33/8 (238 sample) drooler who was 6-7 tabling and who i hadn't encountered until this session.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($9.75)
UTG+1 ($59.58)
MP1 ($76.45)
MP2 ($25.57)
MP3 ($10.91)
CO ($26.87)
Button ($25)
SB ($23.47)
Hero (BB) ($25.35)
Preflop: Hero is BB with A, Q
7 folds, SB calls $0.15, Hero bets $0.75, SB calls $0.75
Flop: ($2) J, Q, 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, SB raises $4, Hero raises $7.75, SB raises $18.47 (All-In), Hero calls $12.72
Turn: ($46.94) 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: ($46.94) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $46.94

Preflop
he completes first, which makes me discount TT+,AQs+,AQo+. and then calls my iso. range:

22-99(54),A6s-A7s(6),A8-AJ(48),KT-KQ(48),Q9(3),QT-QJ(24),JT(16)

that's probably far too tight. but how many combinations of flush draws he can have on the flop doesn't change the equities TOO much because most of them have like 40%. (ie they have stable equity across ranges, thanks ISF!)

Flop
he C/minraises. i have no postflop reads at all. but he seems fishy, and i'll say that his range is

22,KQ,KT,QT,QJ,A6dd-ATdd

at the time i had his range heavily weighted toward KT and flush draws. just because he has so few nut hands in his range. and fish seem to like minraising flush draws. so i decided to 3bet/call thinking he jammed something like

22,KQ,KT,JT,A6dd-ATdd

so that range breaks down as follows

3 set combos have ~95%
6 two pair combos with probably 80%
8 one pair combos with ~20%
26 draw combos with probably 40% equity on average

i'm guessing i have like 55% versus that range and i felt i had to raise because he can have so many draws and flatting a stupid C/MR against a range with lots of draws felt silly. so i decided to raise. at the time i thought he'd jam it in with KQ and some other shit so i was intending to 3b/call if he jammed (though i'd prefer he flatted), however surviva pointed out in IRC that he probably doesn't 4bet jam draws. or even many worse hands (ie KQ). so i was probably better 3betting smaller (to get value from one pair hands which cant fold, and to charge draws) etc and then folding to a jam which was probably a pretty nutted range. i think i agree with this.

fwiw, based on what i thought his shoving range was, i think my decision to 3bet/call was fine (against AQ,KQ,JK,22 i have 46% so adding in draws weakens that range to the point where i have >50%), however my estimate of his ranges was likely off.

lemme know what you think.

it just came to my attention that i am the biggest top pair/overpair fish. maybe that's something i'll hopefully fix as i learn what ranges are and what equity means and other such esoteric concepts. i think i've thought about poker for long enough today.

ok one more just cuz this one's easy. i played it terribly. but it's easy to analyse because the ranges are so small/face up.

3-bettor is 15/12/6.0 3bet oer 200 who i didn't know that much about at the time. fwiw, the seemingly large 3bet stat is irrelevant. he was running hot. i saw him show down AA,AA,KK,QQ in 3bet pots. he's not FOS here.

the guy flatting in the blinds is 14/9/1.0 3bet over 200.

Pot-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (MP2) ($27.27)
CO ($22.57)
Button ($25)
SB ($18.50)
BB ($34.79)
UTG ($21.22)
MP1 ($28.73)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, A
UTG calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero bets $1, CO raises $3, 1 fold, SB calls $2.90, 2 folds, Hero calls $2
Flop: ($9.50) J, Q, Q (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks
Turn: ($9.50) 9 (3 players)
SB bets $0.75, Hero raises $10, CO calls $10, 1 fold
River: ($30.25) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $14.27 (All-In), CO calls $9.57 (All-In)
Total pot: $49.39

Preflop
so i open 3x+1 for the limper. this guy 3bets me, and a nit flats in the blinds. i get a healthy dose of FPS and decide to flat for numerous highly flawed reasons:

- "the SPR is low, and the SB's range is like JJ+,AK. all the lower pairs have ~20%, and there is way too much money in the flop for setmining to be profitable. i'm gonna be deceptive and flat then stack them on the flop."
- "i want to keep the 3bettor spazzy if he ever is 3betting me "light"
- "i have no 4b bluff range here whatsoever (and i think it would be terrible to have one) so i didn't wanna 4bet such an un-balanced range, because it turns my hand so face up and they can play perfectly" YEAH IF THEY COULD HANDREAD JESUS ITS 25NL

all of those are obv. FPS bullshit. i'm playing 100bb deep 25nl. just 4bet it and get it in imo. anyway.

Flop
i check it to the cbettor so he can at least take a stab if he has AK. there are only 4 combos of FH's/quads, and most people don't even 3bet JJ, so i feel my hand is far stronger than their ranges, and very under-repped. flop action goes as above

Turn
so the nit in SB leads for some ridic amount and it throws me off. i see value in raising, because KK combos outweight JJ,QQ so i bump it up. the original 3bettor flats with a range of QQ,KK,AA, assuming he doesn't 3bet JJ. even if he does, i beat 6 combos, lose to 4 and chop with one. i'm ahead of that range.

River
bricks off and because his range is so small i can actually count its combinations accurately. i realise that there are 4 nut combos at most and 6 of KK (although he may not call KK 100%) so i jam and he shows QQ. nh. whatever. i fucked it up. one day i'll learn.

Originally Posted by rpm

it just came to my attention that i am the biggest top pair/overpair fish. maybe that's something i'll hopefully fix as i learn what ranges are and what equity means and other such esoteric concepts. i think i've thought about poker for long enough today.

this probably means that you are the biggest optimist-fish when it comes to putting villains on ranges once they raise flop or turn. And a pessimist-fish when it comes to getting value out of stations.


AsQh - 100% like the hand until the river, although you could bet $6 on the turn and it wouldn't change his calling range, plus it leaves you < pot behind on the river.

your analysis. Add all Axs, add KTo. Your breakdown of his flop calling range looks fine, based on your preflop range. Turn sounds fine too. River is very close. this is for sure a feel spot, and depends on your nit, i check back in some gameflows (very rare), bet $5.25 in others, bet $11 in others, and shove in others - noting that shoving is the best way for him to find a fold with the hands you beat. I'd base my river decision on the other hud stats as well as my recent behaviour, etc...


KK - I think you can 3b slightly bigger oop here vs a relative unknown. flop c-bet is optional, i'm not convinced it's best cos lol-balance vs players you have 50 hands against. Once you 3b pre, villains have a subconscious belief that you have a lot of KK+/AK, so how do you rep the AK? check vs a non-thinking, right? so, preflop they're on 22+, AQ+, very rare AJs. Thing is, you are getting calls from very little that you beat on this flop cos 55-99 are folding often and JJ+ aren't, nor 44/33 obviously. Once he calls flop you're in an interesing spot - i mean, most villains imagine you rep AA pretty hard on this flop, and especially if you barrel. Turn bet is weird, like, just shove if you wanna rep AK or something, meh, i dunno. If you check turn he isn't gonna be bluffing much at all. Obviously you gotta call as played getting 3:1.

AcQh - pre is good. Flop 3b is bad. his range is hands that crush you + hands that have solid equity. Like, he doesn't have that much KQ and the 3b isn't the best value line vs that part of his range.

AA - 4b pre. Not even fucking close. ez game.
as played call turn bet, don't raise, i mean, their ranges are like TT-KK and there are two of them = you aren't getting value from worse often enough at all. And they are never gonna try and bluff cos it's 3-way and Qx/JJ loom heavily.

two relevant hands from the last five minutes

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($18.22)
SB ($25.10)
BB ($20.05)
Hero (UTG) ($33.96)
MP ($35.13)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, Q
Hero bets $0.85, 1 fold, Button calls $0.85, SB calls $0.75, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($3.40) 5, J, 4 (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $2.30, 2 folds, BB calls $2.30

Turn: ($8) 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4.60, BB calls $4.60

River: ($17.20) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $9, BB calls $9

Total pot: $35.20 | Rake: $1.76

Results below:
BB had 9, 9 (two pair, nines and fours).
Hero had Q, Q (two pair, Queens and fours).
Outcome: Hero won $33.44


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($44.27)
SB ($25.45)
BB ($25)
Hero (UTG) ($50.27)
UTG+1 ($35.67)
MP1 ($51.89)
MP2 ($56.90)
CO ($27.82)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, A
Hero bets $0.85, 2 folds, MP2 raises to $2, CO calls $2, 1 fold, SB calls $1.90, BB calls $1.75, Hero raises to $50.27 (All-In), 2 folds, SB calls $23.45 (All-In), 1 fold

Flop: ($56.90) 3, 8, 7 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: ($56.90) Q (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($56.90) 5 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $56.90 | Rake: $2.84

Results below:
SB had J, J (one pair, Jacks).
Hero had A, A (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: Hero won $54.06

thanks a heap for your comments daven. one thing.

"this probably means that you are the biggest optimist-fish when it comes to putting villains on ranges once they raise flop or turn. And a pessimist-fish when it comes to getting value out of stations"

i'm not sure i understand what you mean by this. could you explain it please?

Pretty sure he means that you think they never have it when they raise but slow down too much vs. the stations. So start tightening vs. raises but bet more vs. stations.

ah ok. thanks kmind. i'll put some thought to that.

today my method of table selection was to sit at the reggiest tables i could and observe their play in the blinds and vs the blinds. and trying to start noting their tendencies in postflop pots. i lost a hand which tilted me so i quit early. but i did find this guy who has the strangest stats. potentially to small a sample but

villain is 10/6/5.6 3bet
so he's a nit. and a shit one at that. but he gets a little funky in the blinds.

Steal
Co 0% (32)
BTN 11% (27)
SB 7% (15)

so he's still a nit even in the two best seats in the house. but then in the blinds...

vs steal SB BB
fold 69% (16) 71%(21)
call 13% 10%
3bet 19% 19%

this guy seems to seriously hate folding his blinds. his vpip by position is pretty interesting. it's almost like he plays position in reverse. ie his VPIP is higher in EP (which i think the blinds are included in, for HEM) than it is on the button. all this is over ~600 by the way.

kmind interprets good

Originally Posted by rpm

e his VPIP is higher in EP (which i think the blinds are included in, for HEM) than it is on the button. all this is over ~600 by the way.

for uber nits this could easily be influenced by sample size
also, get the HEM position report that splits stats up by all 9 seats (i think you can find it in the FAQ on the HEM website? or in their custom reports forum?)

don't have many hands on villains at 25nl, but i'll analyse the stats/HH's of some of the regs in order to learn to play better.

our buddy here is 13/10/2.4 over ~950

relevant blind stats:
ATS total: 35%
CO: 27% (45)
BU: 36% (25)
SB: 57% (14)

Vs Steal
Fold SB: 100% (16)
Call SB: 0%
3bet SB: 0%

Fold BB: 80% (15)
Call BB: 13%
3bet BB: 7%

Fold ATS to resteal is 75% out of just 4.

so he seems pretty straightforward. playing a positionally aware game, and not being overly aggro or anything like that. quite ashamedly, i have no specific notes on his play.

so what are his ranges when playing in/vs the blinds, and how can i exploit them?
for starters, his CO opening range is wide, and i can certainly 3bet a wider-than-average range on the BU vs his CO opens. i'll determine a range for that.

so pretend table folds to this guy in the CO, with me on the BU and two of the 9/7 nits in the blinds. he opens to 3x.

the CO ATS stat i have over the small sample is 27%. i'll just take this for granted even though the sample size is not reliable. so his CO opening range looks something like:

22+,A2s+,A7o+,K6s+,KTo+,Q8s+,QTo+,J8s+,JTo+,T9s,98 s,87s,76s,65s, which is 27%.
his fold to 3bet is 77% from 13 opportunities. which tells me basically nothing. however he hasn't 4bet once over the sample, and his 3bet stat is very low. so i'm assuming he doesn't buy into the preflop 3bet/4bet wars, and will play pretty straightforward when he's 3bet and knows he'll play every postflop street OOP. for these reasons, i imagine he continues to a 3bet with:

77+,AQs+,AKo until such time as my 3betting makes him adjust.

so a quick combo count will tell me that he's folding (not factoring in any blockers i might have)

opening range:
22+,A2s+,A7o+,K6s+,KTo+,Q8s+,QTo+,J8s+,JTo+,T9s,98 s,87s,76s,65s
78 +48 +84 +28 +36 +16 +24 +12 +12 +4 +4 +4 +4 +4
= ~358

Continuing range to 3bet:
77+,AQs+,AKo
48 +8 +12
= 68

68/356 = 19% of the time he continues to my 3bets, 81% of the time he folds.

so now i have decided what i think my opponent's strategy is, i have to determine my own. this is dependent on the info i have on my opponent. in this case, my main considerations are that my opponent has a weak range. he has to play it out of position. and hopefully, he has less poker skill than i do.

[ ] strong range (card advantage)
[ ] positional advantage
[ ] skill advantage

this guy's in a vulnerable situation.

first. what is my calling range?

one thing to note here is that his guy has only cbet 37% of 35 opportunities. not sure if the sample's reliable enough but this seems to indicate that he plays pretty honestly on the flop in pots that he has raised. or at least cbets at a lower frequency than most. so i can steal a lot of pots postflop when he checks to me. thus i want to line up a weak range to attack my opponent with, in order to exploit the weakness of his range. i think i'll flat with:

22-JJ,A6s-AQs,A9o-AQo,K8s+,KTo+,Q9s+,QTo+,J8s+,JTo,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s

note that i'm not necessarily calling these hands because i think i get value with them (hands like KTo,QTo,JTo). i'm flatting them because i can afford to have a wide range because my opponents range is weak and i can probably steal a lot of pots postflop. so i'm flatting 21.4% of hands.

3bet range
my standard IP 3bet is 3x so, assuming this guy's standard open is 3x, my 3bets will require 9/13.5 = 66% fold equity in a preflop vacuum, which i get easily.

now that i've decided i want to 3bet a wider range than one which is purely for value. i have to create that range.

3bet "Value" range:
because he doesn't seem to buy into the aggro preflop reg wars (low preflop 3bet,4bet), i think i can include some hands in my "value" range which i intend to fold to a 4bet. he calls with 77+,AQs+,AKo. so i think a good range to 3bet for value would be QQ+,AK and maybe JJ some of the time. because it is ahead of his 3bet calling range and the more hands i put in my 3bet range, the bigger a mistake it is for him to call with hands like 77-88 (because my 3bet range is weaker and he gets paid off less often when he flops a set. and C/F's a ton of flops)

conclusion: QQ+AK and JJ if i feel like it. that's 2.6% of hands.

so i've determined my value range. now i need to decide my (drum rolllllllll....)

3bet bluff range
the first question here (i think) is "how many". that is, how many bluffing hands do i want in my range relative to my value hands. i kind of want to make it 3:1 or more. just to exploit the shit out of him and make him have to adjust and thus hopefully make him uncomfortable. but if i do it subtly enough that he doesn't realise the need to adjust, i can just go on exploiting him til te cows come home. so, long story short: i'm going to use. a bluff:value ratio of 2.5:1, even though i think i could go as high as 3 or 3.5.

i have 18 + 16 = 34 "value" combos. so my target is 2.5 x 34 = 85 bluff combos.

next question is "what hands". as best i know, the 3bet bluff hands with the highest EV are those which are too weak to profitably call with, and which have the highest equity versus calling range/fold equity.

A2s-A5s = 16 combos

hmm i kind of want to remove 22-66 from the calling range and 3bet them. just because they have low implied odds vs 27% of hands. and they rarely flop equity. they're basically in my calling range because "his range is weak so i want a weak range to steal pots with". however i think i'd be better substituting 22-66 from the calling range with some more suited hands that can flop some decent pot equity. what do you people reading this think of that idea? i'll leave it as an idea for the time being.

K7s-K4s,Q8s = 20 combos
A8o-A5o = 48

so there's 84 combos. and i'm 3betting a total range of 9% of hands. this is quite high. but may still go undetectable to this guy. because we have a large sample of hands together, he probably sees me as something like 16/13 with a ~3.5% total 3bet. even if he does look at 3bet by positiom, my average BU 3bet may still be like 4-5%. not the 9% of hands i'm actually 3betting on the BU vs his CO attempts to steal. so anyway.

Calling Range (~20% of hands): 22-JJ,A6s-AQs,A9o,AQo,K8s+,KTo+,Q9s+,QTo+,J8s+,JTo,T8s+,97s+ ,87s,76s

3bet Range (~9% of hands): QQ+,AK,A2s-A5s,K7s-K4s,Q8s,A8o-A5o

this has taken me fucking ages to do and now i want to play some poker. if you read this please feel free to chime in on what you think my different ranges should be and why.

man do i know how to spew

i'll pretend now that i'm in the blinds facing a BU steal from the same guy. some info one him C+P'd directly from my last post:

our buddy here is 13/10/2.4 over ~950

relevant blind stats:
ATS total: 35%
CO: 27% (45)
BU: 36% (25)
SB: 57% (14)

Vs Steal
Fold SB: 100% (16)
Call SB: 0%
3bet SB: 0%

Fold BB: 80% (15)
Call BB: 13%
3bet BB: 7%

Fold ATS to resteal is 75% out of just 4.

i'm going to take his BU ATS stat as being accurate. even though it could be way off. table folds to villain on the BU who opens 3x.
he's risking 3 to win 1.5. so he needs ~66% folds in a preflop vacuum for his steal to be +EV. his range looks something like:

22+,A2s+,K6s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o +,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o
78 + 48 + 28+ 16 + 12 +8 + 8 +8 +4 +4 144 +48 +36 +24 + 12
~478 combos


and i'll say he continues to a 3bet with:

55+,AQs+,AKo,KQs
54 + 8 + 12 + 4
= 78

78/478 = 16% of his range continues to a 3bet, 84% folds.


so what hands can i profitably flat?

i'll leave it there for now.

Originally Posted by rpm

man do i know how to spew

ok, work on spew prevention is probably worth more to you right now than range-work. Try physically writing 'i will focus. I will play well' on a piece of paper before starting each session, then glancing at this note every 15 minutes and quitting if it is no longer true.

Originally Posted by rpm

so what hands can i profitably flat?

i'll leave it there for now.

bvb closing the action probably something like 40-60% of all hands depending on player and how he plays post etc.

Originally Posted by daven

ok, work on spew prevention is probably worth more to you right now than range-work. Try physically writing 'i will focus. I will play well' on a piece of paper before starting each session, then glancing at this note every 15 minutes and quitting if it is no longer true.

working on ranges is spew prevention.

spew is often caused from just being bad at hand reading and not knowing the best play but not wanting to fold so just shoveling money into the pot/clicking call out of confusion.

it recently came to my attention that i suck at determining the EV of calling bets that close the action. so i'm going to play a session and save the HH's of these spots then analyse them. regardless of how trivial they may seem.

^^ forgot about that post. i think i'll just spend more time analysing hand in the BC to remedy that problem though.

anyway. spoon recently brought it my attention that i am a retarded, tilting, degenerate. he also made me think about how much more money i'd win at poker if i was playing my best poker more often. or my worst poker less often. so i'm going to attempt to implement some changes in the way i go about improving at poker - when i play it, for how long, what i do in the time leading up to when i play poker etc etc. i'm not going to list exactly what i plan to do because i've made a bazillion claims in this thread already. and i actually think i'm more likely to be successful with these goals if i don't post them on the internet.

i will say that one thing i intend to work on, which i think a lot of people would benefit from, is one of tommy angelo's ideas regarding "finger tilt". it seems my most tilted decisions are also my most impulsive ones, and those which are subjected to the least amount of logical scrutiny. i am currently trying to ensure i take as much time as i need (or more than i need, if it's a snap-decision, just so my timing is "balanced") in an attempt to reduce the influence of impulse upon my poker decisions, and increase the influence of logic. i spend so much time working on my poker brain, analysing HH's, paying for coaching sessions, going through databases, utilising mathematical formulas to an extent i never thought i would need to, but this is all irrelevant if my poker decisions are based (hypothetically) on 5% logic and 95% impulsive/emotional responses. i'm looking to increase the strength of that logical side.

also, i'm increasingly realising that having a plan for a hand is very, very important. not just for reduction of the aforementioned emotional/impulsive decisions, but also for figuring out logical/calculative things like which line maximises our EV and all of that business. anyhow...

playing poker again after ~2 months break. i was going to let this thread die but i figure i might as well post the hands i analyse etc somewhere incase someone opens this thread and wants to give me feedback. decided to get my poker brain working again i'm going to redo the exercises spoon suggested i do regarding ranges and etc etc.

so villain here is 11/9 with a 2% 3bet over ~100.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG+1 ($71.20)
MP1 ($45.14)
MP2 ($34.75)
MP3 ($112.11)
CO ($72.85)
Button ($63.40)
SB ($45.30)
Hero (BB) ($57.35)
UTG ($42.73)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, A
3 folds, MP2 bets $1, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.75

he's pretty nitty so i guess he's opening something like 22+,AJ+,KQ. his range is strong and he has position on me so i' probably not flatting many hands here. probably 99-QQ,AK and 3betting KK+ for value. i'm flatting here because i want to keep AJ and AQ in his range so i can get some postflop value on A high flops. also 3-betting here probably puts me up against something like 99-KK,AK which sucks. especially OOP. so i flat. quick combo count of villain's range:
22-QQ (66)
KK (3)
AA (3)
AJ-AQ (24)
AK (9)
KQ (12)

Flop:
($2.55) A, 6, 7 (2 players), effective stack is ~$33
Hero checks, MP2 bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25

so i check, expecting him to cbet all Ax, sets, and maybe some 88-JJ type hands, though i'm unsure about his cbet tendencies. regardless, there are more combos i beat than beat me, and i prefer checking to leading because he probably bets a wider range than he calls. so i can basically let him value town himself for one or two streets, then v-bet the river. he cbets as expected with a range of roughly:
AA (1)
AJ-AQ (16)
AK (6)
66-77 (6)
and maybe some of 88-JJ (24)

against sets and top pairs only i have 58% so i'm obviously calling, and at this stage i'm planning to check/call the turn and maybe lead river for value if neither the turn or river are a Q or J.

Turn: ($5.05) A, 6, 7 9 (2 players) (effectives ~$30)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

not a bad card for me. i check, expecting him to bet all sets, and AJ+, and not double barrel anything that he doesn't perceive as being "for value". range:

AA (1)
AJ-AQ (16)
AK (6)
66-77 (6)
and i'll give him 99 (3) even though he checks the flop with it some nonzero %

against this range i have 54%. easy call. here i basically have to decide what he calls a river lead with and make a plan based on that decision. if he calls with all sets, all top pairs then i can donk most rivers for value.

River
($10.05) A, 6, 7 9 2 (2 players) (effectives ~$27.5)
Hero bets $5.50, MP2 calls $5.50

river card does not strengthen his range. and so i decide to donk for value, expecting to be called by all top pairs and only ever raised (for value) by sets. against which i have:

Board: Ad 6c 7s 9c 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 86.364% 72.73% 13.64% 16 3.00 { AhKc }
Hand 1: 13.636% 00.00% 13.64% 0 3.00 { AJs+, AJo+ }

a shitload of equity and need to value bet. even if he flats all sets:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.375% 50.00% 09.38% 16 3.00 { AhKc }
Hand 1: 40.625% 31.25% 09.38% 10 3.00 { AA, 99, 77-66, AJs+, AJo+ }

i can value bet versus that range

Total pot: $21.05 | Rake: $1.05

the end. if anyone looks at this, tell me what you think about my river play, and if you like to donk it for value, what size?

this one left a bad taste in my mouth

villain was 8/8/0 over just 12 at the time

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP2) ($50)
CO ($36.71)
Button ($15.78)
SB ($25)
BB ($39.48)
UTG ($31.98)
MP1 ($61.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, A
2 folds, Hero bets $1,

standard @ ante table

CO raises to $3.50, 3 folds,

i assume this is a completely standard value 3bet range of QQ+,AK. even though 4-betting is completely un-balanced and turns my hand face up, i don't want to just flat AA OOP this deep. and 4-betting may allow me to get it in pre if he decides to jam AK or KK or some other shit. 4-betting also means he loses money if he continues, because there's not enough money behind for him to to win postflop to make up for the equity disadvantage. especially if he's only flatting pairs (which have 20% equity) fundamental theorem blah blah etc. so i 4bet.

Hero raises to $10, CO calls $6.50

and he flats. cool. SPR is 1.25. i've got AA in a 4bet pot with almost half the stacks already in the pot. then:

Flop: ($20.70) 8, K, 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

i think his range going to the flop, at widest, is QQ+,AK.
QQ has 6 combos
KK 3
AA 3
AK 6

assuming all of it checks, which i think is probably true, i have 75% equity against his current range. but he doesn't call a bet with QQ and i think AK should be discounted to some degree due to preflop action. so i probably don't have >50% equity to warrant a v-bet.

Turn: ($20.70) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $14.50, Hero raises to $39, CO calls $12.16 (All-In)

i check again because, to be honest, i don't think he has AK enough here to warrant betting. then he bets an amount which shows he is clearly committed to the pot. i tank and feel sick for a bit then tilt enough to convinve myself that he has AK his range often enough to get the money in. i ship and he slowroll-calls his KK. nh.

River: ($74.02) 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $74.02 | Rake: $3

so what do you think about:
- my 4-bet size?
- my flop check?
- my turn check?
- what to do when he bets the turn as played?

might do some pot odds/equity when all-in stuff. just because i suck at it.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($41.85)
Hero (Button) ($51)
SB ($19.35)
BB ($17.70)
UTG ($16.10)
MP1 ($21.32)
MP2 ($67.79)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, A
1 fold, MP1 calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero bets $1.25, 2 folds, MP1 calls $1

Flop: ($3.20) Q, A, 3 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $2, MP1 calls $2

Turn: ($7.20) 7 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $3, MP1 raises to $18.02 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $13.20 | Rake: $0.66


Preflop
i don't think this guy was a complete unknown but i didn't write down any reads in the notepad file i saved the HH in. so i'll just make some up. pretty sure this guy was loose/passive. probably one of the 35/5 ish guys who like to limp in and call with a wide range and check/call a weak range postflop, only betting with a pretty strong range. i'll say:

22-JJ, A2s-AJs, A2-AJo, K2s+, K9o+, Q5s+, Q9o+, J7s+, J8o+, T7s+, T8o+, 96s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,53s+

22-88 (42), 99 (3), TT (6), A2s-A8s (21), A9s (2), ATs-AJs (6), A2o-A8o (63), K2s-K8s (28), K8s (3), K9s-KQs (16), Q5s-Q8s (16), Q9s (3), QTs-QJs (8), Q9o (9), QTo-QJo (24), J7s-J8s (8), J9s (3), JTs (4), J8o (12), J9o (9), JTo (12), T7s-T8s (8), T9s (3), T8o (12), T9o (9), 96s-98s (9), 86s+ (8), 75s+ (8), 64s+ (8), 53s+ (8)

in reality it's probably smaller than that, but whatever.
Flop: ($3.20) Q, A, 3 (2 players) effective stack ~$20
MP1 checks, Hero bets $2, MP1 calls $2

he checks with something like all of his range. and i decide to bet because he has more worse aces in his range than better ones. and he may call a street with Qx. so i'm betting for value, and i will probably only attempt to get 2 streets of value because the Q means his calling range won't include many middlish pairs. so i think going for three streets is kind of thin. during the play of the hand i didn't really discount anything based on the fact that he C/C'd (as opposed to C/R'ing) though i probably should. here i won't divide his ranges. and just list his continuing range.

calling range:
TT, JJ, 33, A2-AJ, KQ, Q5s-Q8s, Q9+
(6),(3),(3), (86) ,(12), (16), (21)

pretty sure i would have a decent amount of equity vs this range. i'm guessing like 65%.

Turn ($7.20) Q, A, 3 7 (2 players) effective stack ~$18
MP1 checks, Hero bets $3, MP1 raises to $18.02 (All-In)not sure why i decided to bet here instead of checking it. he probably calls wider versus a raise pre/bet flop/check turn/bet river line than he does versus raise/bet/bet. and there are few scare cards which can fall and affect his calling range. oh well. so i bet with intentions of bet/folding because my opponent is loose/passive and check/shoving turns is typically very strong at micros.


total potsize after he shoves: ~$28
cost of my call: ~$15
so i'm getting roughly 2:1 and thus need ~33% equity.

some ranges:
Board: Qh Ad 3s 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 87.727% 86.36% 01.36% 5130 81.00 { 33, A7s, A3s, A7o, A3o }
Hand 1: 12.273% 10.91% 01.36% 648 81.00 { A9o }


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.478% 58.82% 10.66% 10482 1899.00 { 33, AJs-A7s, A3s, AJo-A7o, A3o }
Hand 1: 30.522% 19.87% 10.66% 3540 1899.00 { A9o }

so incrementally adding hands into his C/jam range from strongest to weakest, i find that he has to be doing this with hands as weak as A8 to make this a call (i'm assuming he has no bluffing range). and i doubt he is check/shoving that light so i think it was a fold.

Originally Posted by rpm

Turn ($7.20) Q, A, 3 7 (2 players) -MP1 checks, Hero bets $3, MP1 raises to $18.02 (All-In)not sure why i decided to bet here instead of checking it......so i bet with intentions of bet/folding.

I think you should have bet the flop a little bigger but mainly, if you're gonna bet the Turn (I would check/fold), you should bet it bigger. Unless you're trying to trap, it looks like you "bet with intentions of bet/folding", so you open yourself up to bluffs, possibly. Yea, good fold.

i can't C/F in position. do you mean check it back if checked to? (on the turn)

just posting this to show myself how terrible it is and do it less in the future.

villain is 22/8 over 66. no 3bets. dont have any specific HH's, but he has been losing for the last few orbits, and he seemed pretty tilted as a result.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (CO) ($56.64)
Button ($13.43)
SB ($25)
BB ($36.85)
UTG ($50.95)
MP1 ($29.93)
MP2 ($69.21)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, 6
3 folds, Hero bets $1, Button calls $1, 2 folds

shouldn't have opened this with a tilty 50bb stack on my left. i'm not going to flop well enough often enough. but i did and he flatted with a range of

A2+,K2s+,KTo+,Q4s+,QTo+,J7s+,JTo+,T8s-64s,T9s-43s,T9o-65o.

and a tedious but profitable combo count:
A2-A5 (64),A6 (12), A7-AQ (96), AK (12), K2s-K9s (31), KTo+ (27), Q4s-Q5s (8), Q6s (3), Q7s-QJs (20), QTo-QJo (24), J7s-JTs (16), JTo (12), T8s-64s (18), T9o-65o (54)


Flop: ($2.70) 2, 4, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $2, Button raises to $12.38 (All-In), Hero calls $10.38

i flop a pair and bet. then he shoves.

potsize = 2.7 + 2 + 12.4 = 17.1
amount to call = 12.4 - 2 = 10.4
10.4/(17.1+10.4) = ~38% equity required for a neutral EV call.

his range is something like all straights, sets, two pairs, top pair+, one pair/straight draw, 8+ out draws.

at the time i talked myself into calling because omg he's spewing and can have so many draws. but most of his draws have 40-50% equity and don't really affect the strength of his range versus my hand very much so i think it's a fold. stove:

Board: 2s 4h 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.504% 40.73% 00.77% 54844 1036.50 { Kc6c }
Hand 1: 58.496% 57.73% 00.77% 77723 1036.50 { 22+, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As5s, As4s, As3s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks8s, Ks7s, Ks5s, Ks4s, Ks3s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Qs8s, Qs7s, Q6s, Qs5s, Qs4s, Qs3s, JsTs, Js9s, Js8s, Js7s, Ts9s, Ts8s, Ts7s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 86s, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 43s, 76o, 65o }


Turn: ($27.46) 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($27.46) 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $27.46 | Rake: $1.37

seems it wasn't as bad as i first thought (the all-in call at least)

Originally Posted by rpm

i can't C/F in position. do you mean check it back if checked to? (on the turn)

Yea, that's what I meant to say.

so i've decided that after a mini break from poker, it would be a good idea to re-do the exercises i was given when i was receiving coaching. originally planned to just do them on paper but it takes longer and is too tedious. so i'm posting them here.

VALUE BETTING YEAHHHH

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($27.99)
UTG+1 ($27.81)
MP1 ($23.79)
MP2 ($29.33)
CO ($25.52)
Hero (Button) ($50.03)
SB ($107.92)
BB ($47.08)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4, K
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 2 folds, CO checks, Hero bets $2, SB calls $1.90, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1.75, 1 fold

this was an ante table so the pot had something like $1.25 in it by the time the action was on me.
- UTG+1 limper is 27/8 over 173. he likes to limp fold.
- CO is obv dead money because he posted/checked in the CO behind a passive limper.
isoing K4s may be a bit loose but whatev, i did it.
- SB caller is 40/15 over 32.

no real reads on either. both these guys have relatively weak ranges, which is why i feel i can profitably isolate with weak hands like K4s. some quick ranges:

SB Range: 22-JJ (54), A2s+ (46), A9o+ (57), K8s+ (15), KTo+ (27), Q9s+ (12), QJo (12), J9s+ (8), JTo (12), T8s+ (8), 97s+ (8), 86s+ (8), 75s+ (8)

UTG+1 Range: 22-88 (36),A2s+ (46), ATo+ (45), KTs+ (9), KJo+ (18), QTs+ (8), QJo (12), JTs-76s (16)

Flop: ($6.90) 4, K, 2 (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $5, SB calls $5, UTG+1 calls $5

so i flop super well, and i am value-betting this flop. i wish i'd gone closer to 6-6.50 now or even just potted it because i doubt their calling ranges change much at all between these sizes. so i get flatted in two spots. ranges:

SB Continuing Range: 22 (3), 44 (1), 55-JJ (42), A2hh-A3hh (2), A5hh-AQhh (8), K8s-K9s (2), KT+ (24), Q9hh-QJhh (3), J9hh-JThh (2), T8hh-T9hh (2), 97hh-98hh, 86hh-87hh (2), 75hh-76hh

UTG+1 is the tighter of the two, and he also has seen the SB flat, so i'm guessing his range is far tighter.

UTG+1 Continuing Range
22 (3), 44 (1), A2hh-A3hh (2), A5hh-AQhh (8), KTs (2), KJ+ (16), QThh-QJhh (2), JThh-76hh (5)

sets can, and probably should, be discounted from both ranges but whatever. seeing is there are only 3 possible combinations in either's range that beat me, i don't really need to run this through stove to know that i have >33% equity in this pot. my plan here is obviously to get a shitload more value on any non-heart turn.

Turn: ($21.90) 7 (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $18, SB calls $18, 1 fold

so at this point, the effectives are:
vs SB: ~$43
vs UTG+1: ~$20

and i have a clear value bet. my attempts to plan the hand around value-shoving the river were confused by having two largely different effective stacks. if i bet close to pot i can get UTG+1 all in on the turn. i have no reason for the sizing i chose, except that it was close to pot and big enough so that calling with a flush draw was -EV in a fundamental theorem sense due to insufficient implied odds versus my hand etc.

so the SB calls, and UTG+1 folds.
SB Turn Continuing Range:
22 (3), 44 (1), 77 (3), A2hh-A3hh (2), A5hh-AQhh (8), K8s-K9s (2), KT+ (24), Q9hh-QJhh (3), J9hh-JThh (2), T8hh-T9hh (2), 97hh-98hh, 86hh-87hh (2), 75hh-76hh

hasn't really changed except the middlish pocket pairs are gone. and sets are almost completely discounted now as well now i think. he may realise my range is so strong here that he folds even Kx, but i doubt it. just realised i left out AK from his range but oh well, that's just another one pair hand in his range which is dead to 3 outs.

River: ($57.90) 10 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $24.98 (All-In), 1 fold

so we get to the river with a bizarre SPR. i decide to shove the rest assuming he calls with KQ,AQ enough to make it +EV. lemme check that.

Board: Kh 4h 2d 7s Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.143% 57.14% 00.00% 8 0.00 { Ks4s }
Hand 1: 42.857% 42.86% 00.00% 6 0.00 { AKs, KTs, AKo, KTo }


ez shove. in reality he probably tilt calls some non-zero % with some of Thxh hands that made a pair, and probably calls with more Kx as well.


Total pot: $57.90 | Rake: $2.90

ok so i'm just going to continue posting random hands here just because doing this makes me win more money.

so i still suck at value-betting in all but the most clear spots. so i'm going to look at some different ranges for him calling my river bet here to analyse the EV.

villain is a 90/5 complete drooler. despite his preflop passivity, he was kind of aggro postflop. well not aggro, but not completely passive. he plays strong and, often, middle strength hands aggressively, but also has no fold button for that range when he is met with aggression. and he also was caught PSB bluffing a bricked draw on the river. oh yeah, he basically pots every time he bets, if i remember correctly.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($59.42)
SB ($28.37)
Hero (BB) ($105.98)
UTG ($25)
UTG+1 ($48.03)
MP1 ($51.98)
MP2 ($28.52)
CO ($50.38)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4, 2
6 folds, SB calls $0.15, Hero checks

i'm not discounting anything by him flatting here. he honestly probably has 100% of holdings.

Flop: ($0.90) 2, 4, 8 (2 players)
SB bets $0.90, Hero raises to $4, SB calls $3.10

so he donks pot which, from what i've seen of him, includes all "made"
hands middle pair or stronger, and probably any straight or flush draw

so that's:
22+, A8s, A4s-A3s, K8s,K4s, Q8s, Q4s, J8s, J4s, T8s ,T4s, 98s, 94s, 82s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 42s+, A8o, A4o-A3o, K8o, K4o, Q8o, Q4o, J8o, J4o, T8o, T4o, 98o, 94o, 82o+, 74o+, 63o+, 53o+, 42o+

plus something like 30 XcXc combos which aren't pairs or straight draws. he calls my raise with probably every single hand in that range. hence i made it so big.

Turn: ($8.90) 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $9, SB calls $9

the fact he doesnt check/bomb me or lead here tells me he does not have a hand two pair or stronger, because he has been playing hands like this very aggressively. i pot it because it doesn't change his calling range and i' still getting value. so his range is now basically:
- pair + straight draw hands
- pair + flush draw hands
- 8x hands and maybe some retarded premo pairs because he hates raising pre

i'd click them into stove but i'm retarded and it keeps (seemingly) randomly selecting all hand combinations and making me have to start over. motherfucker

River: ($26.90) 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $92.68 (All-In), 1 fold

so this river falls and his calling range becomes and 8x hand or stronger. possibly discounting some stronger ones because he didn't pot.

FU pokerstove x10

ok so here's what i got assuming he calls with all hands top pair or stronger, and that he never has a hand two pair or stronger prior to the river because he plays these hands aggressively, based on the reads i have on him from prior hands.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

165 games 0.005 secs 33,000 games/sec

Board: 2d 4c 8c 7d 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.909% 50.91% 00.00% 84 0.00 { 4s2s }
Hand 1: 49.091% 49.09% 00.00% 81 0.00 { 66-55, A8s, K8s, Q8s, J8s, T8s, 98s, 86s-85s, 83s, 75s+, 64s, 53s+, A8o, K8o, Q8o, J8o, T8o, 98o, 86o-85o, 83o, 75o+, 64o, 53o+ }

so it doesn't look too bad. granted some 8x may not call, but he definitely donks the river himself with 5x some non-zero as well. i didn't bother with combo counting for this one because it took too long as was.

Total pot: $26.90 | Rake: $1.34

Originally Posted by rpm

Board: 2s 4h 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.504% 40.73% 00.77% 54844 1036.50 { Kc6c }
Hand 1: 58.496% 57.73% 00.77% 77723 1036.50 { 22+, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As5s, As4s, As3s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks8s, Ks7s, Ks5s, Ks4s, Ks3s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Qs8s, Qs7s, Q6s, Qs5s, Qs4s, Qs3s, JsTs, Js9s, Js8s, Js7s, Ts9s, Ts8s, Ts7s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 86s, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 43s, 76o, 65o }


Turn: ($27.46) 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($27.46) 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $27.46 | Rake: $1.37

seems it wasn't as bad as i first thought (the all-in call at least)

rofl at a 22/8 having 1/2 of those spade combos

you're probably right. flush draw combos wouldn't change the equity of the whole range much though. unless you removed like 90%.